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4E: Radical tariff policies severely impact US stocks and the cryptocurrency market, intensifying concerns about a global economic recession

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, Trump's tariff plan is much more aggressive than the market expected, triggering strong investor concerns about a full-blown trade war leading to an economic recession. On Thursday, all three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Nasdaq dropping 5.97%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020; the S&P 500 fell 4.84%, and the Dow Jones dropped 3.98%, both the largest single-day declines since June 2020. Major tech stocks plummeted, as tariffs are expected to impact the supply chain, with Apple falling over 9%. The market capitalization of the "Magnificent 7" evaporated by about $1 trillion in a single day, reaching its lowest point since early August last year.The cryptocurrency market also saw a widespread decline. Bitcoin fell from a high of $88,000 before the tariff announcement to nearly $81,000, a significant drop, but still relatively strong compared to tech stocks. Various sectors of the market experienced widespread losses, with the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization dropping nearly 8%. The crypto fear and greed index, which had recovered in March, fell back into the "extreme fear" range.The foreign exchange and commodity markets were also affected, with the dollar index falling 1.61% to its lowest level since October 2024, erasing all gains since Trump's election; the outlook for slowing global economic growth caused oil prices to plummet nearly 7%, marking the largest single-day decline since July 2022. Spot gold prices fluctuated narrowly, remaining basically flat compared to the previous trading day.Trump's tariffs have caused a bloodbath in the financial markets, and the non-farm payroll report for March is set to be released tonight. Before the potential impact of import tariffs on the data, the labor market is expected to remain stable. The market is closely watching Powell's speech, and according to the CME FedWatch tool, traders' pessimism about the U.S. economic outlook has significantly increased the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the number of expected rate cuts this year rising from two a month ago to four.

4E: "The extent of 'reciprocal tariffs' far exceeds expectations, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin."

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, Trump announced last night the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, adopting a dual-track system that combines "benchmark tariffs" and "one country, one tax rate," with rates exceeding market expectations. The U.S. stock market was initially optimistic due to the 10% benchmark tariff being lower than expected, with major indices closing up. However, after the specific high tax rates were announced, investors became concerned about the escalating risks of a global trade war, which could drag the U.S. economy into recession, leading to panic selling after hours, with stock index futures plummeting. As of the time of writing, S&P 500 futures were down over 2.79%, Nasdaq futures fell over 2.65%, and Dow futures dropped more than 1.9%.The cryptocurrency market fell across the board. Initially buoyed by optimistic sentiment regarding tariffs, global risk assets generally rose, with Bitcoin briefly soaring to $88,500. However, as more details were released, market sentiment turned sharply negative, and Bitcoin plummeted to yesterday's low, returning to around $83,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 1.8%. Ethereum fell from $1,957 to below $1,800. Most sectors in the market declined, with the Meme sector experiencing significant losses.In the forex and commodities market, the dollar fell throughout the day, down 0.65%; during the U.S. trading session, oil and gas prices rose, but after the tariff announcement, crude oil futures prices dropped by 1.0%; safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices to new highs, with London spot gold reaching $3,157, up about 0.7%.After Trump announced comprehensive new tariffs on 185 countries, U.S. stock index futures and major cryptocurrencies plummeted, triggering turmoil in global markets and widespread risk aversion. The scale and unpredictability of the tariffs have quickly shifted investors' focus to macroeconomic headwinds, prompting the market to reassess inflation trajectories, growth risks, and policy responses for the second quarter.

4E: On the eve of the tariff announcement, the US stock and cryptocurrency markets rebounded, as the market awaits clarity on policies

ChainCatcher news, as Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" approach, market sentiment has undergone repeated tests, ultimately betting that clear trade policies will help stabilize the market. The three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant fluctuations during the day, closing mixed: the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.03%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.87%. Large tech stocks strengthened across the board, with Tesla rising more than 3%.The cryptocurrency market rose in tandem, with Bitcoin, driven by the early low opening of tech stocks, briefly approaching $82,000, and then following the rebound of U.S. stocks, reaching a high of $85,579. It is currently challenging whether it can hold above the $85,000 mark, having increased by 2.36% in the last 24 hours. Other major tokens generally rose, with Ethereum striving to break the $2,000 mark. Last night, multiple meme tokens on the BNB chain experienced a chain collapse, significantly undermining market confidence in meme coins.In the forex commodities sector, the dollar closed flat after fluctuating throughout the day; the oil and gas market overall declined, with crude oil prices slightly retreating; investors chose to take profits ahead of a series of tariffs coming into effect, with spot gold retreating after reaching a historic high.The U.S. stock market seems to have stopped falling on the eve of the "reciprocal tariffs" deadline, indicating that the market believes Trump will not insist on any tariff policies that would severely hinder economic growth, and is looking forward to clear trade policies that will help stabilize the market. Global attention is focused on tonight's tariff announcement, watching whether it can clarify policy direction to eliminate uncertainty, and whether the increase in tariffs will further worsen economic prospects.

QCP: Both cryptocurrency and stock markets recorded their worst quarterly performance in three years

ChainCatcher news, QCP recently released a market analysis stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index have just recorded their worst quarterly performance in three years, with the cryptocurrency market capitalization evaporating by over $160 billion since Friday. The pullback on Friday was attributed to the expiration of quarterly options, leading traders to actively sell, causing perpetual contract funding rates to turn negative. Meanwhile, core inflation data came in higher than expected, and consumer spending remains sluggish.The market is paying attention to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy on April 2. Against the backdrop of consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low and the stock market experiencing a weekly decline of 4-5%, aggressive tariffs may exacerbate recession fears. However, if the policy measures are less aggressive than expected, it could provide some relief to the market. In terms of volatility, the VIX remains at a high level of 22, while cryptocurrency volatility is declining. Trading desks indicate a bullish sentiment dominating before the Asian market opens, with investors buying upside options and selling downside risks.Although April has historically been a strong month for cryptocurrencies, the market outlook remains cautious, potentially digesting macro risks in a sideways consolidation. Key events this week include ISM data, non-farm payroll reports, and Powell's speech.
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