Research Institute

Bitget Research Institute: The election becomes a catalyst for the rise of the crypto market, with BTC aiming for 100,000 USD

ChainCatcher news, Bitget Research Institute stated that in the short term, Polymarket shows that the market believes the probability of Trump winning exceeds 90%, which is a significant deviation from the then poll results. Trump secured the crucial votes in Georgia, further increasing his winning probability, leading to a panic entry of cautious funds, pushing the BTC price to new highs. Bitget Research Institute reminds that attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to short-term profit-taking after the election.In the medium to long term, Trump's election is favorable for BTC, but his policy direction may push up inflation levels in the United States, and the medium to long-term U.S. interest rates may remain above 3.5%. The Republican Party may sweep Congress this time, which could promote a regulatory framework favorable to the crypto market, benefiting the crypto market in the medium to long term.Additionally, Bitget Research Institute pointed out that in the derivatives market, the IV of the options market has risen, and the open interest in the contract market has increased by 900 million USD in the short term, indicating that traders are betting on future volatility. Furthermore, after the market capitalization of stablecoins broke a new high, it has been fluctuating around 160 billion USD, providing significant leverage space for the market, and BTC may reach the level of 100,000 USD within 5 months.

Hong Kong International New Economy Research Institute: The virtual asset market will undergo a reshuffle, and some non-compliant U businesses and project parties may exit

ChainCatcher news, Executive Director Fu Rao of the Hong Kong International New Economy Research Institute wrote in the Ta Kung Pao article "Improving the Regulation of Virtual Assets for Healthy Industry Development," pointing out that the Supreme People's Court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate of China jointly issued an interpretation regarding several issues related to the application of laws in handling money laundering criminal cases, which explicitly lists virtual asset transactions as one of the methods of money laundering. This will have the following impacts on the virtual asset industry:Increased compliance costs for the industry. The introduction of regulations means that practitioners need to pay more attention to compliance issues and increase compliance investments to ensure that their businesses are legal and compliant. The market will undergo reshuffling, and some non-compliant U businesses and project parties may exit the market, further increasing industry concentration.Enhanced investor education. The introduction of regulations will prompt investors to pay more attention to the risks associated with virtual assets, improving their ability to identify risks.Gradual improvement of industry regulation. The release of this judicial interpretation will help regulatory authorities to conduct more effective oversight of the virtual asset industry, promoting healthy industry development.As Hong Kong vigorously develops its virtual asset economy, the mainland has responded by addressing serious crimes most easily triggered by virtual assets. In this context, both U businesses and ordinary investors should enhance their legal awareness, ensure compliance in transactions, and avoid falling into legal risks.
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