CICC: It is basically clear that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, but a 50 basis point cut is currently unrealistic
ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CICC evaluated Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as follows:It is basically clear that a rate cut in September is a done deal, in line with expectations. CME interest rate futures indicate a 76% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September and a 24% probability of a 50bp cut.The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from prices to employment, essentially declaring victory in the fight against inflation (stating that inflation expectations are already well anchored), and assessing the job market as no longer overheating, balanced, with rising risks.There was no mention of how much to cut rates in the future; it still depends on the data. A 50bp cut currently seems unrealistic, and we need to wait for next month's non-farm data. Powell also does not view the rise in the unemployment rate as a deterioration of the job market, believing it is mainly due to more people entering the labor force and a slowdown in hiring. The attitude towards the job market is one of observation and vigilance.
