Important macro data next week: Non-farm payrolls, Powell, and Trump vying for attention, with increased bets on Fed rate cuts
ChainCatcher news: After the U.S. inflation data met expectations on Friday, the dollar held near a two-week high, and the argument between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasury bonds recorded their strongest start to a year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which approached 4.8% in January, now close to 4.2%, and the two-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% during the day for the first time in four months. U.S. stocks nearly erased their gains for 2025 but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing the losses for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:Monday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI finalMonday 23:00: U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. January Construction Spending MoMTuesday 21:50: 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaksWednesday 3:20: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks at Bloomberg Investment ForumWednesday 21:15: U.S. February ADP Employment ChangeWednesday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Services PMI finalThursday 1:00: Federal Reserve releases Beige BookThursday 20:30: U.S. February Challenger Job CutsThursday 21:30: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 1Friday 21:30: U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings YoY and MoMFriday 23:45: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participate in a panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business organized U.S. Monetary Policy ForumU.S. February nonfarm payroll data will be released on Friday, which could be a key indicator affecting the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Federal Reserve officials will receive before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After cutting rates by 100 basis points in three consecutive meetings at the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep rates steady in this year's second consecutive meeting.