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The prediction market platform Polymarket has partnered with blockchain analysis company Chainalysis to monitor trading activities and enforce market rules in response to concerns about insider trading and market integrity.The two parties announced on Thursday that Chainalysis will provide a comprehensive set of tools, including investigative software and on-chain monitoring systems, to identify suspicious behavior. Its models are designed to detect patterns consistent with "trading based on non-public information." This move comes as regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets is increasing. Critics argue that platforms like Polymarket may be susceptible to influence from insiders (such as political staff or corporate employees) who place "information advantage bets" before information is made public. Such behavior is illegal and heavily regulated in traditional financial markets, but regulatory definitions remain unclear in the crypto prediction market space.Polymarket's response is to enhance the transparency advantages of blockchain. Since all transactions are recorded on-chain, trading activities can be tracked and analyzed post-factum. By overlaying Chainalysis's data tools, the company hopes to identify suspicious transactions in real-time and provide relevant evidence to regulators when necessary.

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that if the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve raise interest rates, it would be a policy mistake.

Polymarket announced the launch of a comprehensive on-chain market integrity monitoring system solution to monitor trading behavior and enforce platform market compliance rules. This system will be built in collaboration with blockchain data analytics company Chainalysis, covering all DeFi trading processes on Polymarket, including real-time on-chain analysis of trading, holdings, and settlement data. It will identify potential violations through a multi-layer monitoring mechanism, focusing on insider trading and market manipulation.Polymarket stated that all its transactions are completed on a public blockchain. This collaboration will further amplify the advantages of on-chain transparency, allowing regulatory agencies and law enforcement to obtain verifiable on-chain evidence, thereby establishing a new compliance standard in the predictive market field. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated that the platform has emphasized transparency and traceability since its inception, and this collaboration will further strengthen its positioning as a "trusted source of market information."

The Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) announced that it has formally submitted a comment letter regarding the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets, advocating for the establishment of a clear compliance path for decentralized prediction markets based on public, permissionless blockchains while improving the regulatory framework for centralized prediction markets.In the comment letter, HPC calls on the CFTC to develop more flexible, function-oriented rules to accommodate decentralized market structures; to establish clear legal channels for U.S. market participants to access decentralized prediction markets; and to promote the U.S. leading position in decentralized financial innovation. HPC stated that prediction markets are a natural extension of the federal derivatives framework, helping participants directly manage their economic risk exposure to real-world events and aggregating dispersed information through continuously updated market prices, whose price discovery capabilities have been widely validated, even outperforming traditional polls and expert forecasts.It pointed out that decentralized prediction markets based on public blockchains have advantages such as transparency, non-custodial nature, and high resilience, not relying on centralized operators to hold user funds, and there is no single point of failure risk; all transactions are recorded in real-time on a public ledger, facilitating regulation and market oversight, while market access standards are more transparent and uniform.HPC emphasized that current rulemaking should not solidify reliance on a single exchange operator, custodial intermediaries, and traditional settlement monitoring mechanisms, as this would hinder U.S. users' legitimate participation in decentralized prediction markets. It stated that it will continue to promote compliance access for U.S. market participants to Hyperliquid and HIP-4 outcome markets and will maintain communication with the CFTC.

The latest report from the non-profit research organization Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) indicates that the prediction market platform Polymarket may have broader insider trading issues than the previously reported "Green Beret Bet on the Venezuela Raid."The research analyzed 435,000 settled markets from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, with a total trading volume of $54.4 billion, and found that low-probability bets related to government decision-making in military and defense markets had abnormally high success rates. Data shows that the average success rate for such "long-shot bets" in political markets is about 14%, while in some cases of military-related contracts, the success rate exceeds 50%. The study suggests that these markets are difficult to predict based solely on public information and are more susceptible to information asymmetry, including insider trading or professional information advantages.The report also points out that Polymarket's profits are highly concentrated. Research from the London Business School and Yale University shows that about 3% of traders contribute to most of the platform's price discovery; blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that less than 1% of wallets accounted for about half of the profits. For example, in the case of the U.S. airstrike on Iran in June 2025, just hours before the attack, 19 low-probability bets totaling $164,000 concentrated on buying the ultimately realized "YES" contract, with 8 wallets collectively profiting about $1.8 million, including one wallet that made nearly $500,000.Despite the Pentagon's efforts to conceal the operation through decoy bombers and stealth fighters, a few traders accurately predicted the outcome. ACDC recommends that Polymarket strengthen identity verification, set conditional payments for suspicious bets, limit markets where results are determined by a few individuals, and reduce overly detailed contract designs. The report further calls for a broader discussion on whether the public should be allowed to bet on such events.

According to a joint report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, Polymarket's trading volume in March reached $25.7 billion. Research based on 1.29 million active wallets in the first quarter of 2026 shows that 82.3% of users had trading volumes below $10,000, indicating that the platform is dominated by retail users. The average number of active days per user increased from 2.5 days to 9.9 days, and the average number of trading categories per user expanded from 1.45 to 2.34.Sports became the largest category in the first quarter, with a trading volume of $10.1 billion; the political category generated $5 billion in trading volume, of which geopolitical events accounted for $2.41 billion; the crypto category accounted for about 40% of new users' early activities, serving as a primary entry point. The report defines this trend as a shift driven by behavior rather than capital, with users visiting more frequently and rotating among multiple categories. The industry predicts that by the end of 2026, the annual trading volume will reach $240 billion, with a long-term goal of $1 trillion.

DefiLlama data shows that Polymarket's TVL has exceeded $530 million, reaching $5.37, setting a new historical high.In addition, the platform's fee revenue in the past 7 days has exceeded $8 million.

Polymarket shows that the probability of "Powell resigning from the Federal Reserve Board before May 30" has plummeted to 9%, a 25% drop in 24 hours; the probability of "Powell resigning from the Federal Reserve Board before December 31" has fallen to 66%, an 11% drop in 24 hours. The event contract rules state that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is no longer a member of the Federal Reserve Board at any time during the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no."If Powell no longer serves as Federal Reserve Chairman but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board, it does not meet the criteria for a "yes" determination. The determination is based on information released by the U.S. government, but consensus from credible reports can also serve as a basis. Powell stated at a press conference this morning that he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Board member "for a while" after stepping down as chairman and promised to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen responded that "if Powell remains a Federal Reserve Board member, it would be unusual; for someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition."Polymarket continues to monitor the prediction market and sees changes before pricing.

The probability of "Printr public sale raising over $4 million" on Polymarket has dropped to 63%, falling over 30% within the day, with a trading volume of nearly $3.26 million.Printr is a cross-chain token issuance platform that supports users and AI agents in issuing, trading, and staking tokens in a multi-chain environment. It has currently been deployed on 8 blockchains, including Solana, Base, BNB Chain, and Ethereum, and offers features such as customizable fee structures, cross-chain trading, and staking incentive mechanisms. Data shows that the project has currently raised over $2.46 million, with about 35 hours remaining until the fundraising ends.

According to Jinshi reports, Brad Conger, the Chief Investment Officer of Hirtle & Co., stated that a small-scale dispute broke out within the FOMC today, with dissenters leaning towards a tightening policy stance, which sets the direction for the "struggle" for the incoming chair. The bond market has been pricing in this scenario for several weeks, and Conger believes that, based on strong growth in private consumption and business investment, the hawks will have the upper hand in this contest.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is no reason to believe that policy will tighten significantly.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the current policy is mildly restrictive or neutral.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the current easing tendency may be reconsidered at the next meeting.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the current policy is not on a preset track.

According to Jinshi reports, after the Federal Reserve kept the policy interest rate unchanged, short-term U.S. interest rate futures continue to reflect a very low possibility of interest rate cuts this year.

According to The Block, Bitcoin maintained a volatile consolidation above $77,000 on Wednesday, with the market adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. This FOMC meeting is seen as a critical juncture, with the market generally expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may also be his last as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with the market pricing in uncertainties regarding policy and potential power transition.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure, and is likely to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

According to official news, Visa has announced the formal inclusion of Polygon in its global Stablecoin Settlement Program. Visa partners, including issuing institutions and acquiring institutions, can now complete stablecoin settlements through the Polygon network. Polygon stated that it has now become the largest USD stablecoin payment network in the world.According to Allium and Dune data: 34% of USD stablecoin transfers occur on Polygon, more than twice that of BNB Chain; 54% of USDC transfers occur on Polygon, higher than the total of all other chains; 36% of global USDC transactions run on Polygon; Polygon currently has approximately 3.19 million weekly active stablecoin users; the on-chain stablecoin supply has reached a historic high of $3.62 billion; in March, the number of USD stablecoin transactions reached 178.1 million.Visa stated that its stablecoin settlement program has achieved an annualized operating scale of $7 billion this quarter, a 50% increase from three months ago. Polygon emphasized that its network features low transaction fees, approximately 4 seconds for transaction finality, and has been used by institutions such as Stripe, Revolut, Flutterwave, and BlackRock for real financial activity settlements.

According to the Financial Times, Christopher Harborne, a billionaire in the crypto industry and a shareholder of the stablecoin issuer Tether, provided approximately £5 million in funding support to UK Member of Parliament Nigel Farage before the 2024 UK elections. Following this, Farage decided to resume his role as the leader of the right-wing UK Reform Party.The report states that Harborne has long been active in the crypto industry and conservative political donations, and he has previously been linked to the Brexit political movement. This large donation has once again brought attention to the influence of crypto capital on UK politics.

According to Cointelegraph, Polymarket is in communication with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to seek the reopening of its main platform to U.S. users. If approved, this could mean that the restrictions on U.S. users, which have been in place since its settlement with the CFTC in 2022, may be lifted.The report states that Polymarket has previously made a limited return to the U.S. market through the regulated QCEX framework, and if a full return is achieved, it will further intensify the competitive landscape of prediction markets in the U.S.