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Morphic Financial Group founder and CEO Mateusz Kara wrote in CoinDesk that the MiCA transition period ended on July 1, and the Polish Ministry of Finance confirmed that existing virtual currency registrations no longer constitute a legal basis for VASP or CASP operations. Crypto services can only be provided by entities holding valid MiCA authorization. Poland previously had about 2,000 registered virtual asset service providers, but a domestic political deadlock prevented the establishment of a viable authorization pathway. Germany issued 57 licenses, France and the Netherlands each issued 26, while Greece, Hungary, Poland, and Romania collectively issued zero.Kara stated that Polish investors hold about 9.4 billion euros in digital assets, and the relocation of businesses will lead to the loss of compliance teams, capital, and investments, with rebuilding the ecosystem potentially taking years. The compliance costs for MiCA can reach up to 700,000 euros, and serious violations could face fines of several million euros, narrowing the space for small participants. However, he believes that MiCA will be beneficial for the European crypto industry in the long term, as accelerated consolidation will eliminate weak operators and create a safer market. The UK's FCA is also launching a similar system, but Poland may become a sales market for others rather than an active participant in European digital finance construction.

The market is closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting this Friday. As U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, the market generally expects Walsh to possibly release dovish signals to alleviate concerns about inflation and fiscal risks in the bond market.Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America, stated that the market has gradually lost sensitivity to Walsh's previous verbal statements about "fighting inflation," and investors currently hope to see a substantive policy path to address inflation. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Basant has recently increased the repurchase of long-term U.S. Treasuries and financed the government through the issuance of short-term bonds, indicating some divergence between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve in managing the bond market.The article points out that Basant's shift of financing pressure to the short end effectively bets U.S. fiscal costs on future interest rate declines. If Walsh can promote interest rate cuts by controlling inflation and boosting productivity, the short-term financing model is expected to reduce government interest expenses; however, if long-term rates remain high, U.S. fiscal pressure may further intensify.The market also anticipates that the Federal Reserve may make adjustments to liquidity management and balance sheet policies. Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at CIBC, believes that quantitative tightening could begin as early as the end of 2027, provided that regulatory rule changes can reduce banks' demand for reserves.Currently, the Federal Reserve still holds about $1.6 trillion in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Walsh's statements at Jackson Hole regarding long-term yields, inflation, and the path of balance sheet reduction may become an important signal for assessing the degree of future policy coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "BTC reaching $85,000 during the remaining period of August" on Polymarket has risen to 44%, an increase of 26% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of it reaching $90,000 has risen to 12%, an increase of 6% in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, this market is based on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Within the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick is equal to or higher than the specified price in the title, it will be settled as Yes immediately; otherwise, it will be No. This market only considers the 1-minute candlestick High price of Binance BTC/USDT, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not included.

AI market prediction project Fortune Protocol officially announces the integration of liquidity from Polymarket and, together with the previously integrated Predict.fun, provides more prediction markets and liquidity for Fortune Markets.After this update, users can directly explore markets from different liquidity sources within Fortune Markets and discover and compare the liquidity, trading volume, and probabilities of different markets more quickly through a brand new market interface. Fortune Protocol has optimized the trading and asset management experience, adding a streamlined trading process that supports result selection and position browsing; the Portfolio feature is unified, allowing users to view their current positions, settled markets, and complete trading history in one place.Fortune Protocol states that by continuously integrating liquidity from various mainstream prediction markets, Fortune Markets will further build a unified market layer, providing users with a more open, efficient, and integrated prediction market trading experience.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke is an American soldier accused of using non-public information to trade event contracts related to the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on the prediction market platform Polymarket, profiting over $400,000. U.S. authorities charged him with fraud in April. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had previously filed a civil lawsuit against Van Dyke, but a federal judge has ruled to postpone the proceedings until the outcome of the criminal case is determined.The CFTC has applied to submit an amicus brief to express opinions on whether the event contracts fall under its regulatory scope as "swaps." Van Dyke's attorney filed documents on Monday with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York opposing the CFTC's intervention in the criminal case, stating that the agency should face its own case directly. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges, and the criminal trial may begin as early as late 2026 or early 2027.

Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) submitted a letter of opinion to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stating that eligible equity perpetual contracts can be classified as securities futures. This category is jointly regulated by the two agencies, allowing exchanges to compete on execution quality rather than jurisdiction.HPC pointed out that there is still no clear classification for perpetual contracts under U.S. law (whether futures or swaps), and this fundamental issue remains unresolved. They possess characteristics of futures such as standardized terms, the ability to hedge positions, and forward value, although they do not have a fixed expiration date, but prices converge continuously through funding rates.The letter of opinion proposed four points: confirm that the definition of securities futures can encompass cash-settled equity perpetuals with futures characteristics; retain flexibility for product listings at trading venues; maintain consistency in classification between the two agencies; modernize the securities futures framework to accommodate new structures. HPC stated that in the past 10 months, the trading volume of Hyperliquid perpetual contracts has exceeded $48 billion, and a clear framework would help relevant products enter the U.S. market.

According to Caixin, the Hong Kong police responded to the abnormal liquidation case of Star Bridge Capital's gold trading, stating that multiple reports have been received, with the reported amount of funds that could not be retrieved totaling approximately HKD 6.63 million. After investigation, the case is temporarily classified as fraud and has been handed over to the third team of the Central District Criminal Investigation Unit for follow-up, with no arrests made yet.According to information obtained by the affected investors in this case, as of 1:50 PM, the number of people who have reported to the Hong Kong police (and have obtained a report number) is approximately 180.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that there are clear signs of recovery in the altcoin market recently, and the market structure is changing. The "altcoin season" may have entered an early stage. Data shows that the total market capitalization of altcoins increased by about $215 billion in just three days, with a rise of over 24%, pushing the total market capitalization of altcoins back above $1 trillion. Darkfost pointed out that in this round of increase, small and medium-cap altcoins performed the strongest. Due to their lower circulating market capitalization, these assets are more sensitive to capital inflows and also have higher bidirectional volatility risks.From the data on the Binance platform, the signals of recovery in the altcoin market have further strengthened. Since November last year, about 80% to 85% of altcoins have been below the 200-day moving average (200-DMA), while currently, 56% of the altcoins listed on Binance have regained this key technical indicator, indicating that the market may be entering a new cyclical phase. Darkfost believes that this trend reversal is related to several positive signals for cryptocurrencies recently released by Trump. Trump stated that the U.S. will "massively purchase Bitcoin" and urged Congress to push the passage of the CLARITY Act, while also claiming that his administration has ended the previous unfriendly policies towards the cryptocurrency industry.Related remarks have boosted market sentiment, and against a backdrop of low trading volume and reduced selling pressure, a large amount of capital has begun to flow into the altcoin market, driving multiple sectors to rise simultaneously. Darkfost stated that based on historical experience, the current widespread increase in altcoins is usually seen as an important signal for the early start of altcoin season. However, he also warned that the market has entered an overbought area in the short term, and investors should be cautious of a phase adjustment. If the overall upward momentum continues, new investment opportunities may still arise.

"White-haired stock god" Serenity posted on the X platform, stating that after a series of fact sheets released by the U.S. government recently, the future key industries that the U.S. will support and develop can be seen more clearly.Serenity pointed out that this week the U.S. government released policy documents related to the "Golden Age of Space Transportation," with the space industry becoming a key focus area. She believes that the relevant policy goals will promote the development of the launch industry and may benefit companies in the space industry chain, including rocket manufacturers.The U.S. government has set a goal of achieving 1,000 launches and re-entry missions annually by 2030, with rocket companies like Rocket Lab (RKLB) expected to be beneficiaries. In addition, Serenity mentioned that this month the areas of focus for U.S. policy also include: tariffs on drone components; U.S. mining and critical mineral resource cooperation; adjustments to polysilicon supply chain tariffs; and other strategic industry policies. By continuously observing U.S. government policy documents, one can more intuitively judge the industry directions that the capital market will focus on in the future and help investors discover potential industrial opportunities.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "BTC reaching $80,000 during the remaining period of August" on Polymarket has dropped to 43%, a 19% decrease in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of rising to $85,000 has decreased to 12%, a 7% drop in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, this market is based on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Within the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick equals or exceeds the specified price in the title, it will be settled as Yes immediately; otherwise, it will be No. This market only uses the 1-minute candlestick High price of Binance BTC/USDT, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not counted.In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin approached $80,000 on Friday, reaching a high of about $79,500, and then fell back over the weekend, briefly dropping below $76,000, but has now rebounded to around $76,000.

According to The New York Times, in March 2022, Sylwester Suszek, the founder of the Polish cryptocurrency exchange Zondacrypto (formerly BitBay), went missing and left a desperate voice message for his sister, leading his family to suspect he may have been murdered. Przemyslaw Kral, the lawyer who took over the management of the company, has also been missing for four months.Kral had previously released a video to reassure clients, stating that the company held over $330 million worth of Bitcoin, but the only person who possessed the unlocking keys was the missing Suszek. About two months after the website closed around April (on June 29), the Estonian Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) revoked the license of its parent company.

Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal stated that in response to community calls, the team is advancing a proposal for staking and tokenomics reform. He revealed that Polygon's revenue has achieved a tenfold increase this year, delivering 5k TPS and a 25% reduction in block time, and is now moving towards a block time of less than 1 second, making it the right time for stakers to receive their rightful share.Key points of the proposal include: launching native staking similar to L1 on Polygon PoS, which can run in parallel with Ethereum staking; the priority fee for each transaction will flow to POL stakers (PIP-85 has been approved, and native staking will simplify implementation); staking rewards are expected to nearly double, supported by real network fees rather than inflation; staking POL may earn additional incentives such as discounted Gas fees; sPOL will maintain liquidity and can be used in DeFi. Polygon Labs will write the code and submit the proposal for community forum review.

The prediction market Polymarket regarding "What price will Bitcoin reach in August?" shows that as of now, the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 in August is about 81%, the probability of reaching $82,500 is about 49%, and the probability of reaching $85,000 is about 27%.The probability of falling below $75,000 is about 50%. The above data fluctuates in real-time with market trading, and there are about 9 days left until the end of August.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "ETH reaching $2400 during the remaining period of August" on Polymarket has risen to 82%, up 40% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of reaching $2500 has risen to 50%, up 26% in 24 hours.The market is based on the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Within the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick equals or exceeds the specified price in the title, it will be settled as Yes; otherwise, it will be No. Only the 1-minute candlestick High price of Binance ETH/USDT is considered, and prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not included.

According to Caixin, the Hong Kong Court of Appeal yesterday rejected the sentence reduction application of the mastermind behind the electric fraud and human trafficking, Ma Zhihao, and upheld the original sentence of 56 months in prison. During the investigation of the case, the Hong Kong police tracked the criminal funds through blockchain and cryptocurrency transaction records, identifying the key points where ransoms and criminal proceeds were received.It is reported that a victim's family paid approximately 9,527 Tether (USDT) to a cryptocurrency wallet designated by the criminals. The blockchain tracking records conclusively prove that 8,127 USDT flowed into an exchange account registered under Ma Zhihao's real name and Hong Kong ID, which was then exchanged for about 63,000 Hong Kong dollars and transferred to his personal HSBC bank account, becoming important evidence of his involvement in the crime and obtaining profits. The Court of Appeal pointed out that if it were not for the 7-year sentencing cap imposed by the District Court, the punishment faced by the defendant would be much heavier than this.

According to Bloomberg, Anthropic plans to adjust its data retention policy for its advanced artificial intelligence models, giving enterprise customers greater control over their data. The company expects to launch a new security system later this year, where enterprise customers will still need to retain data for 30 days but can choose to do so on their own cloud computing infrastructure instead of storing it on Anthropic's servers. Sources say that the system has been in preparation for several months and has been developed in coordination with over 100 clients from strictly regulated industries.In June, Anthropic announced that it would retain all customer data for 30 days for its more powerful Mythos, Fable models, and future cutting-edge products to identify and prevent new types of cyberattacks using its technology, while stating that it would not use the data for training. The company recently acknowledged in a report that this policy may not be welcomed by customers accustomed to zero retention and could impact business. Anthropic declined to comment on this. Competitor OpenAI has also recently begun testing a solution called "Private Secure Processing" to avoid retaining customer data and plans to roll it out more broadly in September.

The latest research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have profited approximately $8 million by trading on advanced knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, achieving an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research institution emphasizes that blockchain data itself cannot prove the actual identities of the controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the sources of their information, and therefore insider trading cannot be established based on this.ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low probability high stakes" behaviors, which are trades that cumulatively bet at least $2,500 within one hour, with corresponding outcome probabilities not exceeding 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with abnormal trading patterns, of which 152 were involved in military and defense markets. These wallets were referred to by researchers as "Orcas," characterized by their sudden appearance, betting on low probability events, and achieving abnormally high success rates before profiting and exiting.The research found that the success rate of low probability bets in military and defense markets was significantly higher than the overall level on Polymarket, and some abnormal trades quickly attracted large traders and automated trading bots to follow. For example, before a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an abnormal bet on U.S. military action appeared, after which an automated trading bot subsequently bet $200,000, and another large trader bet $100,000. Researchers also found similar abnormal bets and follow-on trading behavior before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Tehran.David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC, stated that the abnormal trading activities on Polymarket are more public than many traders realize, and large traders and bots are already tracking and replicating suspected informed trades, so foreign intelligence agencies may also be monitoring these public on-chain trading activities. The issue of insider trading in prediction markets has recently received ongoing attention from regulatory agencies. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading Polymarket contracts using confidential information regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. This case is not directly related to the 152 wallets identified. Additionally, in May, the CFTC also charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "annual search" rankings, profiting approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that the company closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to the relevant authorities. As the scale of prediction markets continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming important reasons for regulatory agencies to strengthen oversight.