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As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

According to The Block, the total amount of bets related to the 2026 elections on the Polymarket platform has exceeded $2 billion. With the elections in Hungary and Peru approaching, the betting volume in April has significantly increased; the share of bets from non-U.S. markets has risen significantly and now accounts for a majority.The Block points out that election prediction markets are no longer exclusive to the United States and are gradually becoming a global phenomenon.

According to Jinshi reports, New York Fed President Williams reiterated that monetary policy remains in a favorable position to address the threat of long-term supply shocks caused by the Middle East war. He stated that the current monetary policy stance can balance the risks to employment and inflation targets. Williams expects U.S. economic growth this year to be between 2% and 2.5%, with an unemployment rate of about 4.25% to 4.5%, and an inflation rate between 2.75% and 3%.

Gate, as the first centralized exchange to connect to Polymarket, shows that the probability of a closing market value forecast of over $2 trillion for the SpaceX IPO is about 46%, making it the highest probability option currently.It is reported that Gate has launched the first phase of the Pre-IPOs project, SpaceX (SPCX). The subscription for this phase of SpaceX (SPCX) will be open from April 20, 2026, 18:00 to April 22, 18:00 (UTC+8), supporting participation in both USDT and GUSD. After the subscription is completed, the SPCX asset certificates are expected to be distributed before April 22, 22:00 (UTC+8) and will enter pre-market trading in a 100% unlocked form, with pre-market trading starting at April 24, 18:00 (UTC+8). The total subscription amount is 33,900 SPCX, with a total value of approximately $20.01 million, a unit price of $590, corresponding to an implied valuation of about $1.4 trillion.In terms of participation mechanism, Gate Pre-IPOs adopts "average locked amount per hour" for allocation, emphasizing early participation weight. The minimum participation threshold is 100 USDT, and no handling or custody fees are charged. Gate Pre-IPOs will continue to focus on early participation opportunities for high-quality projects before listing, providing users with a new entry point to access global quality assets.

The newly established political action committee in the crypto industry, Fellowship PAC, has raised approximately $11 million, with $10 million coming from Cantor Fitzgerald and $1 million from Anchorage Digital. It has spent about $3 million on political advertising, with this portion of the expenses paid to Nxum Group, which was co-founded by Tether US CEO Bo Hines.The PAC primarily supports Republican candidates and invests funds in congressional and state-level elections. Although the organization has ties to Tether executives, its main funding sources are financial institutions, and it is currently unclear whether Tether can directly participate in related political donations.

According to Bloomberg, the top derivatives regulator in the United States is investigating a series of "exceptionally timed" crude oil futures trades that occurred before Trump's recent adjustments to Iran war policy. According to informed sources, the investigation has been initiated.The U.S. CFTC is leading the investigation into crude oil futures contract trades conducted on the CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange platforms. Informed sources stated that they requested anonymity due to the information not being public.Currently, both trading platforms have been asked to submit relevant trading data to the regulators to cooperate with the investigation.

Cantor Fitzgerald donated $10 million to the political action committee Fellowship PAC, which is chaired by Tether's U.S. executive Jesse Spiro.Fellowship PAC was established in 2025 and has received over $100 million in committed funding, aimed at supporting candidates who promote friendly regulation of digital assets. The organization has previously invested over $1 million in advertising support for multiple elections. Cantor has a close relationship with Tether, having provided custodial services for its stablecoin reserves since 2021, and this donation further strengthens their collaboration on policy matters. In addition to Cantor, institutions like Anchorage Digital have also participated in donations. Industry insiders believe that as the regulatory battle intensifies, the crypto industry is continuously increasing its political investments in Washington to seek a clearer and more enforceable regulatory framework.

According to on-chain analysis platform Arkham (@arkham), attackers exploiting the Bridged Polkadot vulnerability have transferred all stolen funds into Tornado Cash, involving an amount of approximately $269,000.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market bets on the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 before May 1 of this year is 32%, the probability of reaching $85,000 is 8%, and the probability of falling to $65,000 is 22%.

Polygon officially launched the native liquid staking token sPOL, aimed at enhancing the earnings of POL token stakers.As Polygon's native liquid staking token, sPOL will unlock approximately 3.6 billion staked POL and provide stakers with priority trading fee sharing. Currently, only about 4% - 5% of POL is in a liquid state, and sPOL will improve the situation where idle capital cannot participate in DeFi earnings. Users can migrate their existing stakes to sPOL through the Polygon Staking Portal without waiting, and rewards will not be interrupted; new stakes will automatically receive sPOL.The initial exchange ratio of sPOL is 1:1, increasing as staking rewards accumulate. sPOL supports liquidity provision, collateralization, and DeFi strategy yield stacking, and can be redeemed back to POL and accumulated rewards at any time. The first batch was launched by Polygon Labs and audited by ChainSecurity and Certora, with initial liquidity injected from the official fund pool. The official reminder states that sPOL carries risks of smart contract vulnerabilities, validator behavior penalties, and market volatility risks.

According to Theblock citing The Information, Polymarket has launched an audit targeting application startups that promise to help users track suspected insider trading activities.The report states that these copy trading applications provide customers with a list of traders on the Polymarket platform who have a good track record of profitability, or highlight some unusually large or oddly timed bets that may be based on confidential information. Customers can use bots to replicate these trades or receive notifications of seemingly good trades. These applications charge service fees.It is reported that Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi have both been scrutinized for insider trading issues. Last month, Polymarket introduced clearer rules regarding insider trading and its enforcement.

The crypto financial services company Nava, which prevents inappropriate behavior of AI agents, announced the completion of an $8.3 million seed round financing, co-led by Polychain and Archetype.It is reported that the company's method to prevent inappropriate behavior of AI agents is to create a custodial service that holds funds until the agent proposes a transaction. Once the agent proposes a transaction, Nava will use a validation framework to determine whether the transaction outcome aligns with the user's intent. If the transaction passes validation, it will be executed; otherwise, the funds will remain in the custodial account, and the reasons for accepting or rejecting any transaction will be recorded on the blockchain, thereby creating a public decision ledger that can be referenced.

Bitwise Asset Management points out that the recent strength of Bitcoin is not contrary to a risk-averse environment, but is directly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Since the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the end of February, BTC has risen by about 12%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by about 1% and gold has dropped by about 10%, showing a clear divergence in performance.Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and research director Ryan Rasmussen state that Bitcoin is simultaneously embodying two logics: "store of value asset" and "potential international settlement currency." As the financial system becomes "weaponized" and the global payment system fractures, the appeal of non-sovereign neutral assets continues to rise. The report suggests that geopolitical fragmentation is prompting some countries to explore alternative paths to bypass the traditional financial system, such as attempting to introduce Bitcoin settlements in trade. This trend enhances BTC's potential position in the global monetary system. Based on the aforementioned changes, Bitwise indicates that the Bitcoin valuation framework is being reshaped; if it captures both store of value and transaction settlement demand, long-term price expectations may be underestimated, and $1 million could shift from a target ceiling to a "benchmark level."

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn stated that if the duration of the war is prolonged and leads to a second-round effect on prices and wages, causing inflation expectations to begin to decouple, monetary policy will be significantly tightened according to the established strategy.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. Representatives Steven Horsford and Max Miller have reintroduced the "Digital Asset Protection, Regulation, Innovation, Taxation, and Revenue Act" (PARITY Act), aimed at revising the way the IRS handles cryptocurrency taxation.The bill was first released for discussion in December last year and was reintroduced on March 26 this year for further consideration. The bill removes the previous $200 de minimis exemption threshold for small transactions and stipulates that when trading with regulated payment stablecoins, gains or losses are not recognized unless the taxpayer's cost basis in the stablecoin is less than 99% of its redemption value, and sets a $1 recognized cost basis for exchange transactions.The bill also applies wash sale rules to digital asset transactions and distinguishes between "passive staking" and trading activities. It is currently unclear what the next steps for the bill will be, but industry insiders expect a strong push to incorporate cryptocurrency provisions into tax legislation that may become law.

The prediction market platform Polymarket has launched a bug bounty program on the Cantina platform with a maximum reward of $5 million. The program covers the entire technology stack, including 18 smart contracts on Polygon (V1/V2 CTFExchange and NegRisk versions, fee modules, conditional token frameworks, pUSD collateral wrapping/unwrapping systems, UMA oracle adapter, etc.), web applications, and related infrastructure (key web vulnerabilities such as remote code execution, sensitive data leakage, subdomain takeover involving wallet interaction, and malicious transaction injection are all eligible for the highest reward level).The maximum reward for smart contract-related vulnerabilities is $5 million, while the maximum reward for web application-related vulnerabilities is $250,000. The program is now officially open for submissions.

Tom Duff Gordon, Vice President of International Policy at Coinbase, has left the company to join AI giant OpenAI as the head of policy for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.Tom Duff Gordon worked at Coinbase for nearly 4 years and previously served as a banker at Credit Suisse for 8.5 years. A Coinbase spokesperson confirmed this change via email.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

Polkadot stated on the X platform that the team has noticed security issues with the Ethereum gateway contract of Hyperbridge. This vulnerability only affects DOT tokens bridged to Ethereum via Hyperbridge, while DOT within the Polkadot ecosystem and other bridging solutions are not affected. Polkadot and its parachains and native DOT remain secure. Hyperbridge has suspended operations during the investigation.According to previous news from ChainCatcher, the Hyperbridge contract encountered an MMR proof replay vulnerability, resulting in a loss of approximately $242,000.