CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and it usually takes about six months to reverse
ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, for the following reasons:There is a concept in on-chain data called realized market cap. It works as follows: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it is considered a "buy," and when it leaves, it is considered a "sell." Using this idea, the average cost basis of each wallet can be estimated by multiplying it by the amount of BTC held, resulting in the total realized market cap, which is generally seen as the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through actual on-chain activity, while the market cap is based on the latest trading prices on exchanges.When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can drive up the price, thereby increasing the market cap. Strategy has taken advantage of this by issuing convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, resulting in the book value of their held Bitcoin growing far beyond the actual capital invested. However, when selling pressure is high, even large purchases cannot change the price; for example, when the Bitcoin trading price approaches $100,000, the market trading volume is huge, but the price hardly changes.The realized market cap shows how much actual money has entered the market, while the market cap reflects how prices respond. If the realized market cap is growing but the market cap is stagnant or declining, it indicates that capital is flowing in, but prices are not rising—this is a typical bearish signal. On the other hand, if the realized market cap is flat while the market cap soars, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is pushing prices up—this is a bullish signal. What we are currently seeing is the former, where capital is entering the market, but prices are not responding, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market.In short: when small capital drives prices up, it is a bull market. When large capital cannot push prices up, it is a bear market. Current data clearly points to the latter. Selling pressure could ease at any time, but historically, a true reversal takes at least six months—therefore, a short-term rebound seems unlikely.