ChainCatcher news, according to market news, traders have reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to about 50%.

ChainCatcher News, after the release of the U.S. October Import Price Index and October Core Retail Sales data, traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Collins stated: A rate cut in December is clearly under consideration, but it has not been finalized yet. Currently, there are no signs of price pressure, and more data will be released before December; we will have to continue to assess reasonable interpretations.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting, up from the previously expected 25 basis points.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates are expected to decline further, but he hinted that rates may not decrease as much in the coming months. Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve may implement more rate cuts, as economic trends and dynamics are expected to remain unchanged at least in the short term. This includes a slowdown in the job market and cooling inflation, while interest rates remain at restrictive levels; maintaining rates at the current high levels could push up unemployment. Powell stated, "Over time, we will shift policy to a more neutral level."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may not see more signs of inflation easing before deciding whether to cut interest rates again in December. After studying this week's CPI and PPI inflation data, many analysts predict that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, will show that core prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October. This would represent a renewed acceleration in growth since September and means that the core PCE annualized rate has returned to the level seen in May.However, this pain may be temporary. Citigroup economists expect that the core PCE monthly inflation rate may slow significantly in November. But the November data will not be released until New Year's Eve.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated that to maintain the strength of the dollar, the Federal Reserve may need to stop cutting interest rates.Yardeni pointed out that the U.S. economy is performing robustly, and his company, Yardeni Research, has always held a positive view on the dollar. A few months ago, due to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened, which Yardeni believes would be a mistake. He added that the performance of the U.S. Treasury market and the dollar supports this view. He believes that by stopping or reducing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve will help maintain the strength of the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of PPI and initial jobless claims data, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, and U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell slightly; traders are still betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a dialogue at 04:00 AM Beijing time on November 15 (Friday), marking his first public speech since the November FOMC meeting, where he may comment on recent economic data. Investors and economists will closely watch for his clues regarding the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and the policy outlook for 2025. In recent speeches, Powell emphasized the risk balance of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate—stabilizing inflation and supporting maximum employment. He described the Fed's rate-cutting path as a "normalization" of policy.Wednesday's interest rate futures market pricing suggests that there is over an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 17-18. The update to the policymakers' quarterly economic projections in September showed a median forecast of a 1 percentage point rate cut in 2024, followed by another 1 percentage point cut in 2025. Officials will update the "dot plot" at the December meeting, which may indicate the policy path for 2025 and beyond.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that if the progress of inflation decline stalls, it may require the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts. If the labor market shows signs of weakness, gradually lowering interest rates would be appropriate. The labor market has rebalanced, overall cooling down, and inflation has made "considerable progress."

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. October CPI data released last night fully met market expectations, causing little stir in the market. However, the data performance has increased market confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 58% earlier on Wednesday to around 80%.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks showed volatility on Wednesday, with the three major indices collectively turning negative at the start, then rebounding to rise, but significantly narrowing gains by the end of the day, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.26%, the S&P 500 slightly up 0.02%, and the Dow Jones up 0.11%. The "Tech Seven Sisters" had mixed performances, and most cryptocurrency concept stocks retreated.The cryptocurrency market regained momentum after a brief pullback. Bitcoin broke through the important $90,000 mark last night, reaching a high of $93,265, then retreated after hitting a new historical high, and as of the time of writing, it was at $89,586. Bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed Saudi Aramco, making it the seventh largest asset in the world. Meme coins continue to rise, leading various sectors and becoming the focus of investors' attention.In the forex and commodities sector, after the CPI release, the dollar index initially fell and then rose, reaching a 13-month high since October last year, putting pressure on other currencies, with the offshore yuan falling below 7.25 yuan. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, closing up over 0.45%, lingering at two-week lows. The rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pressured gold prices to decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a near two-month low.The CPI data, which was in line with expectations, increased the probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and helped to some extent alleviate market concerns about inflation prospects following a potential Trump victory. Currently, the market is focused on Thursday's PPI and weekly initial jobless claims, Friday's retail sales data, and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed officials. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Fed's Logan stated that the Fed "very likely" needs to cut rates further, but should "proceed with caution."If the Fed over-cuts rates beyond neutral levels, inflation may accelerate again. The Fed has made "significant progress" in reducing inflation and restoring economic balance, making it difficult to determine how many rate cuts are needed and how quickly they should occur.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until December is 24.3%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 75.7% (before the CPI announcement, these were 37.9% and 62.1% respectively). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 16.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 24.3% (before the CPI announcement, these were 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Wall Street Journal evaluates the U.S. CPI data and points out that although inflation data is stabilizing, it still seems possible for Federal Reserve policymakers to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their last meeting of the year next month. This is primarily because, despite the bumps along the way, inflation still appears to be on a cooling trend.Additionally, there remains a certain degree of "catch-up inflation" in the data. Federal Reserve officials also believe that the current short-term interest rate levels are restrictive, which means that without further rate cuts, the labor market may cool more than they expect, even putting the economy at risk of recession.That said, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the next consumer inflation report on December 11, one week ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. If the data is much stronger than what Federal Reserve officials hope for, they may choose to temporarily pause further rate cuts. This is especially true if the November employment report, scheduled for release on December 6, shows a rebound in employment, confirming that last month's slowdown was merely a reflection of hurricane and strike-related issues.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose as traders believe the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased. Traders have increased their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the pace of U.S. inflation slowdown seems to have lost momentum, which may raise questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year. The market expects the U.S. CPI index for October to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with some on Wall Street predicting a rise of 0.3%, which would match the largest increase in the past six months. Meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate may rise from 2.4% to 2.6%, marking the first increase in eight months.However, even if the CPI inflation data for October is strong, Wall Street still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates again at its last meeting of the year in December. But January of next year will be when doubts begin to intensify.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, IG market strategists stated that Trump's election as President of the United States has directly led to a reduction in the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2025. The potential "red wave" means there is little resistance to his tax cuts and spending plans, coupled with his stance on raising tariffs.The strategist said, "Overall, this could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, and we might expect the Fed to be more cautious in its future easing process, indicating upward pressure on yields and a stronger dollar." Traders now believe there is a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, compared to about 83% before Trump's victory.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that the U.S. election ended with a landslide victory for Trump, and Bitcoin simultaneously broke through its historical high, driving multiple mainstream cryptocurrencies to surge. The market sentiment is currently very high. The crypto market is now independent of other markets, and often important fundamental turning points are first reflected in the crypto space. Last Friday's interest rate meeting decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, and the fundamentals of the rate-cutting cycle are supporting the investment market. The implied volatility (IV) of the current options at-the-money has already dropped below 60%, with strong selling pressure from sellers who are selling into the big market.The U.S. election ended with a Trump victory, and last Friday's interest rate meeting decided to cut rates by 25 basis points. The crypto market reacted strongly, with Bitcoin breaking through its historical high, and both funding rates and futures premiums showing strong bullish sentiment. In terms of options, the implied volatility (IV) of the current options at-the-money has dropped to 80%, with strong selling pressure from sellers who are selling into the big market. Currently, the short-term skew of Bitcoin has risen significantly, while the mid to long-term skew has decreased. The options market still needs to observe the movements of the whales.In the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders of 20%. When encountering suitable interest rate orders, it is worth actively trading, especially during market movements.

ChainCatcher message, Deutsche Bank stated in a report that the Bank of England released cautious signals regarding future interest rate cuts on Thursday, indicating a positive outlook for the pound in the coming months. Analyst Michael Pfizer said that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates in December, as it has raised its inflation expectations for 2025-26 and economic growth expectations for 2025.The Bank of England has "clearly" taken into account the UK's recent budget, which may be more expansionary in the short term than previously expected. "This suggests that the Bank of England will continue to cut rates at a much slower pace than the European Central Bank, while the growth rate of the UK economy may be much faster than that of the Eurozone."