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JPMorgan Chase: The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both houses is 66%, while the Republican Party maintaining control of both houses is most beneficial for the U.S. stock market

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.

DeepSeek showcases the AI Workbench Harness Creator Mode

DeepSeek showcased the creator mode of the AI workstation Harness. Harness currently offers four modes: Standard, PTC, Minimal, and Creator. Among them, the Creator mode allows users to directly let AI develop plugins, modify software interfaces, and then install them for use in Harness without needing to write code themselves.Users only need to describe their requirements, and the AI will check Harness's development interface, write the plugin code, complete the installation, and check the running effects. The installed plugins can be saved for continued use the next time they open the application. In addition to adding new interfaces, it can also provide tools for the Agent, enabling it to perform operations it originally could not. For example, users can have AI create a video editing tool with a timeline, a paper reader that supports underlining and annotations, as well as generate poster design tools, interactive 3D models, or even change the Harness interface to a pixel game style.In the official demonstration, the AI created a floating tomato timer, writing over 600 lines of front-end code, completing the installation and operation, taking a total of 5 minutes and 24 seconds. DeepSeek also released the prompts for 7 demonstration cases. Some works were modified through multiple rounds of dialogue, and it is not possible to achieve the same effect by simply inputting a single sentence.

Grok 4.8 has not been released yet, and Musk said he doesn't care about the benchmark scores

On October 30, Musk admitted that the development of Grok 4.8 took longer than expected but assured that the new model would not disappoint. He stated that the team does not optimize for benchmark testing and he himself does not care about scores, focusing more on the practical applications of the model. On September 14, Musk revealed that Grok 4.8 has 2.5 trillion parameters and uses a brand new C++ training system, expecting to complete pre-training by the end of that week, followed by reinforcement learning.Now, more than six weeks have passed, and the new model has still not been officially released. The independent evaluation agency Artificial Analysis found that under the same xhigh inference setting, Grok 4.7's comprehensive intelligence index only increased by 2 points compared to Grok 4.6, rising from 44 to 46 points, while the average output tokens per question increased from about 38,000 to 81,000. Users in the Cursor community have also complained that Grok 4.7 consumes resources faster, but the actual improvement is not significant.In an interview with CCTV in September, Musk admitted that Grok 4.7 is not as good as Claude Opus 5.5, predicting that it would not catch up to the top tier until 2027. In October, he proposed allowing Grok Bot to call external models, including Claude, based on tasks, and plans to have Grok 4.8's high-speed version handle a large number of simple requests.

first_img Celestia launched the payment architecture Voyager, with benchmark tests reaching 21 million TPS

The modular blockchain network Celestia announced the launch of the application-specific blockchain architecture Voyager, aimed at large-scale payment scenarios in agent commerce. The official statement claims that Voyager processed approximately 21 million transactions per second continuously between 100 million accounts during its first complete benchmark test, which lasted for 5 hours.Celestia stated that Voyager splits payment processing into independently scalable threads, avoiding blocking the execution thread responsible for updating balances. Transactions are first verified for signatures and packaged at the entry layer, then enter a circular buffer inspired by the exchange system Disruptor; execution logic is built-in, and state is stored in a flat table rather than a Merkle tree. Each transaction is published to Celestia's data availability protocol Fibre, for external replay and verification of whether payments were executed correctly.The benchmark test covered approximately 40 billion random transfers, with an average throughput of 21.2 million TPS and a peak of 21.6 million TPS. Execution ran on a single CPU core, with node memory around 48 GB. This test was conducted on a single node and did not include state root computation, cross-machine replication, or real-time state queries at the same scale. Celestia claims it is advancing Voyager into production and will release more in-depth technical documentation in the coming weeks. Fibre was launched on the mainnet last week, and Voyager is the first execution layer product launched after its acquisition of Sovereign Labs.
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