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LINK $8.64 -2.97%
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ben

Benchmark maintains a "Buy" rating on Metaplanet, but lowers the target price by more than 50%

According to The Block, Benchmark maintains a "buy" rating on Metaplanet but has lowered its target price by more than half, stating that the company's latest financial report highlights the "prospects and risks" of its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer, in a research report on Tuesday, reduced the target price for the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin reserve company from 2,400 yen to 1,100 yen. He wrote that recent performance shows the "hope and danger" of the company's Bitcoin-centric financial strategy. The stock is traded under the OTC code MTPLF in the U.S., currently priced at about $2.20, having briefly fallen to around $1.85 earlier this month, close to its lowest level since the company began its Bitcoin purchasing strategy in April 2024.Metaplanet reported a net loss of $619 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, primarily due to non-cash valuation losses from its holdings caused by the decline in Bitcoin prices late last year. Nevertheless, its operational performance has significantly improved, with revenue and profits increasing due to Bitcoin-related financial services activities.A core pillar of Benchmark's investment logic is Metaplanet's continuously expanding Bitcoin revenue-generating business, which generates income through Bitcoin-related options and yield strategies. Analysts believe this segment allows the company to pay dividends on newly issued perpetual preferred shares without selling its core Bitcoin holdings, thereby funding subsequent BTC purchases through operating cash flow rather than asset sales.The company added that investor demand for these preferred instruments will likely determine whether Metaplanet can successfully continue to expand its financial reserves while controlling dilution risk.

Benchmark lowers Coinbase's target price to $267, maintaining a "Buy" rating

According to The Block, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer has lowered the target price for Coinbase (COIN) from $421 to $267, a decrease of 37%, while reiterating a "buy" rating. This adjustment comes after the company announced its fourth-quarter financial results, which fell short of expectations due to an overall pullback in the crypto market, impacting both revenue and earnings.Palmer has reduced the fiscal year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 21% to $5.34, with the EPS expectation for the first quarter of 2026 at $0.96, approximately 19% lower than the market consensus. However, based on the current stock price of about $164, the new target price still implies about 60% upside potential.The financial report shows that Coinbase's net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $1.71 billion, a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter; the GAAP net loss was $667 million, primarily due to an unrealized loss of $718 million on crypto asset holdings and a strategic investment loss of $395 million. Despite short-term pressures, Palmer noted that the company's business structure is becoming "more diversified and resilient":Institutional trading revenue increased by 37% quarter-over-quarter to $185 million, benefiting from the acquisition of the derivatives platform Deribit for $2.9 billion last August;Stablecoin revenue grew by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $364 million, with USDC average balances reaching an all-time high;Subscription and services revenue reached $727.4 million, accounting for about 43% of net revenue, with full-year subscription and services revenue increasing by 23% year-over-year to $2.8 billion.The company expects subscription and services revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to be between $550 million and $630 million, with trading revenue for the period as of February 10 estimated at about $420 million. As of the end of 2025, the company held $11.3 billion in cash and had repurchased $1.7 billion in stock in the fourth quarter and early February, with the board also approving an additional $2 billion repurchase authorization.

Gate Wallet launches Gate DEX Gas-Free Benefits Month, with additional benefits for deposits

According to the official announcement, Gate DEX will launch a "Gas-Free Benefits Month" special promotion from February 10, 19:00 to February 25, 19:00 (UTC+8). During the event, Gate DEX will provide both new and existing users with multi-dimensional gas-free subsidies covering token sending, authorization, and trading, aiming to reduce users' on-chain interaction costs through full-process subsidies.It is reported that for users who create or import a new wallet within 7 days, Gate DEX offers 3 full-process gas-free opportunities; existing users can also receive 2 advanced gas-free benefits each month. In addition, the event features a "Recharge Bonus Gift," where users can activate additional token authorization and trading gas-free benefits instantly by pre-depositing 50 USDT to the gas station in a single transaction.The gas station is a recently launched multi-chain basic feature of the Gate wallet. By binding a dedicated gas account 1:1 with the user's EVM wallet, when users initiate on-chain transactions and the native gas is insufficient, they can choose to use the gas station balance to cover network fees, ensuring the smooth completion of transactions. This feature supports 10 mainstream EVM networks, including Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, Arbitrum, and Polygon, and allows deposits of over 100 mainstream crypto assets, including GT, USDT, USDC, ETH, and BNB.

Benson Sun: Bitcoin's decline reached a rare -5.65σ, occurring only 4 times in history

Cryptocurrency KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun posted that Bitcoin experienced an extreme drop this morning. Calculating with a 200-day lookback period, BTC's decline reached -5.65 standard deviations (σ). The Six Sigma standard in manufacturing allows for only 3.4 defects per million occurrences, which defines "almost impossible" in human industrial civilization. Yesterday's BTC volatility was just 0.35 standard deviations away from this "industrial-grade impossibility."A -5.65σ occurrence has a theoretical probability of about one in ten million under normal distribution. Despite the fat tail effect in financial markets, this level of volatility has only occurred 4 times since BTC began trading in July 2010, accounting for about 0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear phases of 2018 and 2022, such a rapid decline had not occurred within a rolling 200-day period. This poses a severe challenge to quantitative strategies.Currently, most quantitative models are built on data after 2015, and historical samples exceeding 5.65σ, apart from the anomalous "312" flash crash in 2020, occurred before 2015, leaving almost no reference precedent.CoinKarma's quantitative strategy has shown a paper loss in this round of market conditions, but due to maintaining low leverage (about 1.4 times) over the long term, it remains manageable, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%. While extreme market conditions are an expensive "tuition," contracts and on-chain data will become important nutrients for future risk control models.

Benchmark is optimistic about Galaxy Digital, expecting a 170% upside potential in its stock price

According to market news, despite Galaxy Digital's stock price plummeting due to a $482 million loss in the fourth quarter, the market may be overlooking its potential in long-term catalysts such as AI data centers and U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory legislation.Galaxy's current stock price is around $21, and Benchmark maintains its "buy" rating with a target price of $57, anticipating a 170% upside. Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz stated during the earnings call that there is a 75%-80% probability of passing U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation, which could attract more institutional capital into the market. Additionally, the company plans to announce more institutional partnerships and infrastructure expansion plans in the coming quarters, including the expansion of on-chain credit markets.Benchmark also mentioned that Galaxy's Helios data center in Texas is an undervalued asset, with over 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, and plans to start generating revenue this year through a leasing agreement with AI cloud service provider CoreWeave. Analysts believe that the valuation of the Helios data center alone could exceed Galaxy's current market value.Despite the decline in fourth-quarter performance, Galaxy's lending business continues to grow, with total loans reaching $1.8 billion, while the company has $2.6 billion in cash and stablecoin reserves, providing ample financial support for its expansion in cryptocurrency infrastructure and AI.
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