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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Bengals vs. Steelers," the "Bengals" option in the sub-market "2H Spread -4.5" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 35% an hour ago to the current 19.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Bitwise has submitted the final prospectus for its NEAR spot ETF and has also released a 39-page investment report on NEAR, co-authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.The report provides various scenario forecasts for NEAR: under the baseline scenario, NEAR is expected to reach $155 by 2030; under the extreme bullish scenario, the target price is $562; while the bearish scenario predicts $1.63.The report does not shy away from the risks of a significant decline in NEAR's price. In the extreme bullish scenario, Bitwise compares NEAR to Visa. The report notes that Visa processed payment transactions totaling $15.7 trillion in 2024, with a current market capitalization of approximately $701 billion, and uses this as one of the references for assessing NEAR's potential future value. The report also includes a product page for Bitwise's European NEAR ETP at the end.

Cryptocurrency KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun stated that he expects the current Bitcoin market to show a gradual new high slow bull trend, rather than forming a clear top after a rapid short-term rise like in 2013 and 2017. Before the true cycle top arrives, the market may experience multiple local top signals. He believes that after 2021, the main buyers of BTC have gradually shifted from retail investors to institutions such as publicly listed companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries.Since institutions mainly buy spot, some funds will also use Delta Neutral strategies for arbitrage, and traditional indicators such as funding rates and MVRV Z-Score may not rise to extreme levels again at the cycle top. Recently, the cycle top is more likely to manifest as institutional funds losing momentum rather than retail sentiment becoming overly heated. The Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI) mainly references overall dollar liquidity, the mNAV of Strategy, and the net flow of Bitcoin ETFs to determine whether institutional funds follow up when BTC reaches new highs. When BTC sets a new rolling 30-day high while ILI does not rise simultaneously, it constitutes a yellow divergence; when BTC breaks historical highs while ILI diverges and is below 50, it constitutes a red divergence.Benson Sun indicated that he would use the frequency of yellow divergences as a reference for judging the cycle process: each occurrence would lead to a proper reduction in altcoin positions and leverage; as the market enters the later stages, he would gradually increase the proportion of BTC and ultimately retain only spot. If a red divergence occurs, he would stop participating further.

According to Forbes, Bitcoin approached $90,000 earlier this month. Meanwhile, global debt continues to rise, and the "currency depreciation trade" surrounding the decline in purchasing power of fiat currency has become one of the factors driving up assets like Bitcoin and gold.Data from the Institute of International Finance shows that global debt increased by $10 trillion in the first half of this year, surpassing $365 trillion in total. The U.S. debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual interest payments rising to $1.27 trillion, surpassing defense and Medicare spending, and only lower than Social Security spending. The institute warns that as benchmark interest rates rise, interest costs will also increase.Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cross-asset analyst, stated that the current environment is favorable for "currency depreciation assets" like Bitcoin and gold, which is part of the reason for Bitcoin's recent rise. The larger the debt of major economies, the more likely it is to suppress real borrowing costs and allow inflation to erode the real value of debt, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of such trades.Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the purchasing power of the dollar has declined by 23% since 2020; if assets only increased by 30% during the same period, investors have essentially just broken even in terms of real purchasing power. The U.S. inflation rate has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 60 consecutive months.

B.AI announced that Xiaomi's latest MiMo-V2.6 series will launch exclusive discounts on September 25 at 15:00 (SGT): MiMo-V2.6-Flash will enjoy a 90% discount, and MiMo-V2.6-Pro will enjoy a 50% launch discount.This series supports 1M ultra-long context and multimodal understanding, covering high-frequency agents and complex reasoning scenarios, helping developers run API calls at a low cost.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that China and the United States have agreed to extend the trade truce agreement until January 10 of next year.Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang suggested inquiring with the relevant Chinese authorities about the status of China-U.S. economic and trade consultations.

From September 22 to September 28, five major projects under TRON ECO—SUN, JUST, WINkLink, BitTorrent, and AINFT—launched the "Moonlight Tarot: Reveal Your Exclusive Identity" Mid-Autumn Festival themed event. Users can choose the tarot identity card that best fits them, tag the corresponding project, and include a reason that combines the characteristics of that project's products. At the same time, tag three friends and include the topic #TRONECOMoonTarot to participate.The event sets up 25 popularity awards for tarot (TRON ECO exclusive peripheral gift packages) and 10 lucky tarot signs (TRON ECO doormats), totaling 35 gifts. As the moon is full, the card array is open, and five identities await to be claimed—whether you are the "Trader" who excels in efficient trading, the "Alchemist" skilled in asset operations, the "Insightful" one connecting on-chain and off-chain, the "Communicator" enthusiastic about spreading information, or the "Architect" building AI Agents, you can find your role in this Mid-Autumn Tarot journey.Bring the topic and reveal your identity card, and celebrate a Mid-Autumn Festival with TRON ECO that is filled with cards, gifts, and surprises.

Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled "Safety First," with the core argument that the claims of "safety first" by Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, which lead to a slowdown in AGI development, are not out of concern for human welfare but rather due to economic realities. The market does not want AI; it wants AI at "Chinese prices," meaning it needs intelligence that is 100 times cheaper than what is currently available. Hayes points out that "safety first" essentially destroys the demand for computing power. If the spending on training new models decreases and laboratories shift towards efficiency optimization, customers will spend less on computing power. The three major AI laboratories do not generate any profits, and their demand for computing power supports over $10 trillion in investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions in low-quality debt, which rely on profitable tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft for off-balance-sheet endorsements. The real backstop is the holders of insurance policies in the United States.Hayes cites an analysis by Nick Nameth that reveals a "self-insurance scam": private equity giants (such as Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, etc.) acquire insurance companies, stuffing AI data center debt and SaaS private credit impacted by AI into insurance assets, and then provide false endorsements with minimal capital through affiliated self-insurance reinsurance companies. Nameth estimates that the total amount of these false reinsurance assets reaches $1.54 trillion. Once the AI data center debt is downgraded by rating agencies due to insufficient demand for computing power, insurance companies will be forced to add capital, while the affiliated reinsurance companies will be unable to pay, leading to insolvency for the insurance companies. In most states in the U.S., the insurance protection limit is only $250,000 to $300,000, and existing insurance companies only pay into the protection fund afterward, which encourages all parties involved to maximize risk-taking. When AIG was bailed out in 2008, TARP funds ultimately flowed to Goldman Sachs and led to record bonuses, while the general public only received foreclosure notices; Hayes believes this scenario will repeat itself.For cryptocurrency investors, the conclusion is a win-win situation. If the U.S. government chooses to become the "last buyer of computing power," it will print money in the name of national security to fund unproductive economic goods, driving up financial speculation and Bitcoin prices; if the government chooses to bail out insolvent insurance companies, it will also need to print money to cover bad AI debts, increasing the money supply and pushing up Bitcoin. Hayes specifically points out that the Federal Reserve voted unanimously last week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and RMP bond purchases have stopped since August 14, but commercial banks have taken over to create over $100 billion in currency, and the interest rate hike allows banks to earn an additional $7.5 billion in excess reserve interest each year. This money will be used to expand loans and market speculation, and the net effect remains stimulative. The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, which saw a slight increase at the end of August, are about to end, the supply of dollars will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and some selected altcoins will rise. Hayes also described this situation as "incredibly wonderful," stating that the government will not allow the free market to stop building AI data centers, there will be an oversupply of spot computing power, the usage of AI agents will increase, and the surge in money printing will drive investors to chase cryptocurrency assets.

TSMC's 2-nanometer N2 mass production marks the transition of advanced semiconductor processes from FinFET to GAA generation. Industry analysts point out that with the simultaneous increase in process complexity, CMP track counts, wafer monitoring frequency, and material specifications, the demand for equipment, CMP consumables, reclaimed wafers, and advanced materials is rising, providing growth opportunities for suppliers like Zhongsha, Shengyang Semiconductor, Xinying Materials, and Songsheng. TSMC's N2 adopts nanosheet GAA technology, which can improve performance by 10% to 15% at the same power consumption compared to N3E, or reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% at the same speed, with chip density increasing by over 15%.In Zhongsha's largest customer Diamond Disk business, advanced processes account for 63%, with N3 and N2 each accounting for 22%, and 1.4 nanometers already shipped in small quantities; after N3 enters N2, the value of CMP content increases by 10% to 15%. Shengyang Semiconductor's monthly production capacity for reclaimed wafers is adjusted to 1.1 to 1.2 million pieces by the end of 2026, with a capital expenditure budget of 4.82 billion yuan for 2026, and it is estimated that the compound annual growth rate for reclaimed wafer expansion from 2025 to 2029 will reach 25% to 30%. Xinying Materials' core products Rinse, BARC, and EBR are expected to see shipments rise seasonally as N2 capacity ramps up, while Songsheng's semiconductor revenue accounted for 66% in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of about 25%, and TSMC-related revenue increased by about 170% year-on-year.

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. SEC has launched a five-year innovation exemption that provides a pathway for eligible tokenized U.S. stocks to be traded through automated market makers (AMM) on public blockchains. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citizens believe that Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle could become early beneficiaries of this policy.The new framework requires tokens to retain shareholder rights such as dividends and voting rights while imposing limits on the number of stocks and trading volume that trading platforms can offer. Goldman Sachs stated that Coinbase's existing tokenized stock products already possess several of the required features, and its institutional custody business and Coinbase Tokenize may also benefit.However, Coinbase's current trading platform uses a centralized limit order book, and to operate a trading venue directly under the exemption, it will still need to build AMM infrastructure or route trades to decentralized trading platforms on Base.Currently, the stock tokens offered by Robinhood for markets outside the U.S. are derivatives that only provide price exposure and do not possess the complete shareholder rights required by the framework, thus requiring further adjustments to the product. Robinhood has previously stated plans to add 1:1 redemption and voting rights features for stocks.Analysts also believe that an increase in on-chain securities trading may drive demand for tokenized cash, benefiting Circle indirectly, with USDC potentially being used for settlement and collateral in on-chain markets.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Bengals vs. Texans," the "Bengals" option in the sub-market "1H Spread -13.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, rising from 24% an hour ago to the current 42% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the "Over" option in the sub-market "O/U 31.5" for the "Bengals vs. Texans" event on the Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 71% an hour ago to the current 88% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

On September 16, B.AI announced the official launch of its five popular models at a 90% discount. Starting from September 16 at 17:00 (SGT), Qwen3.8-Flash, Hy3, and MiMo-V2.5 officially joined the discounted lineup, teaming up with the already discounted DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash and GLM-5.3-Flash to fully construct B.AI's exclusive 90% discount family of five popular models.This means that developers only need to pay 10% of the official standard price to seamlessly switch between diverse needs such as inference, programming, multimodal, Chinese scenarios, and high-frequency APIs, creating low-cost AI infrastructure in a cost-effective manner. Whether for individual development or team-scale deployment, B.AI makes top-tier computing power no longer expensive, truly achieving a low-cost, high-freedom model invocation experience. Start your experience now: https://chat.b.ai/chat

Bitget launched the "VIP Summit" program on its 8th anniversary, opening a direct channel to VIP 7 for professional traders. Eligible historical high-level VIPs and newly promoted VIPs can apply for a 30-day VIP 7 experience card without needing to upgrade step by step. During the event, completing trading challenges can also extend the VIP 7 experience period to 4 months, with opportunities to receive limited gifts and exclusive dinner invitations.The VIP Summit program is centered around "Ultimate Rates, Ultimate Trading," targeting different types of professional traders such as newly promoted VIPs, other VIPs, and historical VIPs. It establishes three main channels: VIP upgrades, TradFi challenges, and peak privileges, further expanding trading rights and exclusive benefits. VIP benefits include discounts on trading fees, borrowing rates, advanced APIs, unified trading account (UTA) infrastructure, and exclusive VIP services, addressing the core needs of professional traders regarding cost, efficiency, and service.This program is based on research from over 300 VIP users, with trading costs and execution efficiency identified as the most important factors for professional traders, forming the core basis for the event's design. As a key initiative for the next phase of Bitget UEX, this program further focuses on professional and high-net-worth traders, continuously improving the platform's system in terms of trading rights, capital efficiency, and exclusive services. The participation period for the event ends on October 31, and more details can be found on the Bitget official platform.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella posted on X stating: Any pursuit of superintelligence must be based on core principles, namely that if the AI we build cannot help humanity and is not under human control, it is not worth pursuing.He also mentioned the need to accelerate and widely disseminate the benefits of AI, allowing it to spread broadly across nations, communities, and companies, which requires a thriving frontier ecosystem for both closed-source and open-source models. For enterprises, it is essential to retain complete control over their unique and tacit knowledge, and each organization should be able to build its own continuous learning loop without relying on any single model provider, embedding its own knowledge into the models and weights it controls.Nadella welcomed the necessary research, attention, and careful pacing for proper alignment, as well as ideas like "embedded evaluators." This cannot be controlled by a few entities; it must have broad representation across ecosystems, nations, and fields including academia. Microsoft's approach is broad access and choice at every layer of the AI stack, enterprise control over learning loops and models, and the release of its proprietary MAI model "Code of Conduct" for public consultation tomorrow.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton," the sub-market "US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs. Ben Shelton Total Games in First Set Over/Under 8.5" saw a dramatic fluctuation in the win rate of the "Over" option, soaring from 71% an hour ago to the current 89.5% (a fluctuation of 18.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated in a research report that SKY could reach $0.325 by the end of 2028, which is five times the benchmark price of $0.065 set in the report. The bank expects that the price increase of SKY will roughly synchronize with ETH and outperform Bitcoin before the end of 2028.Sky is a decentralized finance platform that will adopt its current name in 2024 and launch USDS and the governance token SKY. Since September 2024, Sky's agency has borrowed $5.9 billion USDS; the supply of USDS reached $10.04 billion in June, a year-on-year increase of 96.9%, down from $11.14 billion in May. Standard Chartered stated that further growth in USDS supply will drive protocol revenue and increase distributions to token holders, while staking rewards and a token buyback mechanism will be used to distribute value to SKY holders. The bank expects that the value distributed to holders will at least double in the next 12 months and noted that the slower-than-expected growth of yield-bearing stablecoins is a major risk to SKY's outlook.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "2026 US Open Men's Singles Champion" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option probability for the sub-market "Ben Shelton" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 22.25% an hour ago to the current 37.75% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton," the sub-market "US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton First Set O/U 8.5" saw a dramatic fluctuation in the probability of the "Over" option, plummeting from 86.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 36.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.