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Wintermute: Nearly $3 billion in long positions have recently been liquidated, and market risk aversion is beginning to intensify

ChainCatcher news, the encrypted market maker Wintermute released a market research report indicating that recently, driven by ETF fund outflows, concerns over SOL unlocks, and liquidity issues following the Bybiy hack, the cryptocurrency market accelerated its decline when Trump announced new tariff policies, exacerbating trade war fears. Market risk aversion began to intensify, with nearly $3 billion in long leveraged positions being liquidated.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently significantly reduced its enforcement actions against cryptocurrency companies, including:Agreeing to withdraw its lawsuit against Coinbase;Ending the investigation into OpenSea;Concluding the investigation related to Robinhood's cryptocurrency listings;Suspending the investigation into Uniswap's facilitation of unregistered securities;Ending the nearly two-year investigation into Gemini's yield program;This regulatory thaw marks a significant reversal from the previous administration's approach, with the SEC seemingly reassessing its stance toward the cryptocurrency industry.Bitcoin ETF net outflows hit a record, with $2.5 billion flowing out last week, including a single-day outflow of $1 billion, bringing the total outflow for February to $3.3 billion (compared to the previous record of $343 million set in April 2024). The CME futures basis dropped from 22% in December to a low of 4% last week, significantly reducing the profitability of basis trading strategies. Futures indicators reflect this shift: open interest fell to $13 billion, and monthly trading volume dropped to $247 billion, with both sides at their lowest levels since October 2024.The significant market reversal following Trump's announcement of a "cryptocurrency strategic reserve" on Sunday reveals that the cryptocurrency market is now highly sensitive to administrative signals. The market's reaction exceeded the actual content of the announcement, which largely reiterated the executive order from January. The unwinding of Bitcoin ETF arbitrage strategies highlights the increasingly tight integration between traditional markets and the cryptocurrency market, with both sides now responding quickly to each other's movements. As institutional cryptocurrency products and platform services expand, these cross-market dynamics and competitive user activities may intensify.
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