ALT

QCP Capital: The options market is positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, while factors such as the weakness of altcoins may suppress upward momentum

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, particularly in Ethereum options. This may reflect the market's positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to go live in early April.Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH fell back after rising over 100% from the June low post-upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawals, faced pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose by 30% in the following months.As expectations for the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with options volatility skewed towards call options after March 28—this could lay the groundwork for the next thematic play in the crypto market following the Trump tariff turmoil.One dampening factor is the general weakness in the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap share nearing historical highs. Beyond market catalysts, altcoins may need to achieve substantial progress in real-world applications and network development to sustain a recovery, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.

Bitwise: The bullish sentiment of institutions is correct, and buying altcoins now may yield substantial returns in the long run

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in a report to clients on Wednesday that there is an interesting dichotomy between institutional and retail investors in the cryptocurrency space. On one hand, institutional investors have the most optimistic sentiment towards cryptocurrencies in history, while retail investors are sinking into despair. Investment professionals now view cryptocurrencies as a field where institutional capital is being allocated through ETFs at record amounts, and Washington has transformed from being one of the "biggest threats" to the industry to being one of the biggest supporters under the Trump administration, with nation-states potentially adopting the industry further.However, for retail investors, "it's almost like living in another reality," as Bitwise's own on-chain sentiment score shows one of the lowest readings ever. This index aligns with other sentiment indicators and the overall atmosphere of "crypto Twitter," where retail investors feel disheartened as their investments in altcoins have underperformed compared to Bitcoin, with only a few exceptions.Matt Hougan expressed his strong belief that institutions are correct, noting that so far this year, ETFs and corporations have purchased over 100,000 BTC, while the amount of BTC mined is 18,000. Moreover, in the long term, the allocation to altcoins is "stronger than at any time in history," but the situation for altcoins is more complex. As the regulatory agenda becomes clearer, the U.S. prioritizes stablecoins as a "national priority," and institutional confidence continues to grow, the crypto industry is bound to push DeFi applications to the mainstream, with impacts that are undeniable and unstoppable.
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