ALT

QCP: Altcoin bulls may be fully loaded, and any new inflow of USD may only flow into Bitcoin

ChainCatcher message, QCP Asia released a market observation on February 25, with the following content: "Bitcoin has finally broken out of the range-bound trading, falling below $90,000 for the first time in a month, currently hovering below that level, triggering over $200 million in liquidations in the past few hours.Following Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico and restrict Chinese investments, market sentiment remains under pressure. As Bitcoin prices decline, short-term options hedging activities have increased, with the 1-month implied volatility now rebounding to 50, while the options skew interestingly remains largely unchanged.From a more macro perspective, despite data previously thought to lead to broader market weakness, the stock, fixed income, and gold markets have largely absorbed these impacts, while Bitcoin remains range-bound. The increase in Bitcoin's market cap and the decline in altcoin prices suggest that altcoin bulls may be fully invested, with any new dollar inflows only directed towards Bitcoin.We maintain a cautious stance. Recent Bitcoin demand has mainly been driven by institutions such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, which are financing through the issuance of stock-linked notes. Considering that cryptocurrency-related issuances have accounted for about 19% of total issuances over the past 14 months, this financing market may be nearing saturation—this could suppress (future performance)."

QCP Capital: The options market is positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, while factors such as the weakness of altcoins may suppress upward momentum

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, particularly in Ethereum options. This may reflect the market's positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to go live in early April.Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH fell back after rising over 100% from the June low post-upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawals, faced pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose by 30% in the following months.As expectations for the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with options volatility skewed towards call options after March 28—this could lay the groundwork for the next thematic play in the crypto market following the Trump tariff turmoil.One dampening factor is the general weakness in the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap share nearing historical highs. Beyond market catalysts, altcoins may need to achieve substantial progress in real-world applications and network development to sustain a recovery, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.
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