4Alpha Research Researcher: 0xamuel

On the evening of August 14, Eastern Time, the Democratic Party held an online town hall meeting titled "Crypto4Harris" aimed at countering Trump's influence in the cryptocurrency industry, hoping to gain the support of approximately 40 million Americans who hold cryptocurrencies for Kamala Harris.

However, media reports had previously indicated that Harris would attend in person and discuss with guests such as entrepreneur Mark Cuban and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci. This was supposed to be Harris's first direct interaction with the crypto community; however, unexpectedly, Harris was once again absent from the event.

During the meeting, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer stood in for Harris, promising that if Harris were elected president, she would enact laws supporting cryptocurrencies. However, Harris herself was absent from the meeting, leading to significant dissatisfaction among viewers and raising serious doubts about her stance.

Despite this, as news of the event spread, Harris's chances of becoming the next president of the United States continued to rise. According to Polymarket data, before the event was scheduled, Harris's odds of winning were about 40%; after the announcement of the event on August 8, her odds were equal to Trump's for the first time (49%); with the event on the 14th, Harris's odds further increased to 53% (at the time of writing), while Trump's stood at 44%.

Meanwhile, the price of the meme coin Kamala Horris ($KAMA) has also been rising. According to Coingecko data, as of the time of writing, the price of $KAMA has reached $0.0131, up nearly 47% from the low of $0.0089 on August 4. Previously, following Biden's withdrawal from the race, $KAMA had soared to $0.038. In contrast, Trump's meme coin MAGA ($TRUMP) has fallen over 60% from its high a month ago.

Before Biden clearly stated his withdrawal, Harris, as Biden's running mate, did not attract much attention. Trump initially did not take this competitor seriously and publicly emphasized that Harris was very opposed to cryptocurrencies. But now, the situation seems to have changed, with support for Harris growing in both traditional and crypto markets. So, will Harris really be elected? If she becomes president, what impact will she have on the crypto market? And how can Trump break the deadlock and turn the situation around?

Indifferent Attitude

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Unlike Trump's hostile attitude towards cryptocurrencies during his presidency, Harris seems to have maintained a cold and conservative stance towards this emerging field. She has never given cryptocurrencies sufficient attention, and she is even perceived by outsiders as "not very interested."

Firstly, as Vice President of the United States, Harris primarily focuses on more traditional macro areas, such as economic recovery, COVID-19 response, environmental issues, and racial equality. From her financial disclosures, it appears that Harris and her husband Douglas Emhoff prefer to invest in stable, traditional assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds and emerging market stocks. This investment portfolio shows that Harris is particularly cautious when selecting emerging technologies and financial instruments, and she seems to prefer to keep a certain distance from high-risk cryptocurrencies.

Secondly, although Harris served as a senator and attorney general in California and had contact with tech giants in Silicon Valley, this did not translate into her public support or participation in cryptocurrencies. Even as cryptocurrencies gained increasing attention in Silicon Valley and the entire tech industry, Harris did not express clear views on cryptocurrency policy during her time in office, nor did she actively participate in legislative or regulatory discussions related to cryptocurrencies in Congress or other public forums. This silence further indicates her cautious attitude in this field.

Moreover, even during her tenure as Vice President, Harris's stance on cryptocurrency issues has not shown significant change. She has neither participated in nor promoted any important cryptocurrency-related policies, nor has she made any official statements supporting or opposing cryptocurrencies. In stark contrast to her active involvement in areas such as the environment, education, and healthcare, Harris's "absence" in the cryptocurrency field is particularly prominent.

Overall, before formally campaigning for the next president of the United States, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrencies can be described as quite "indifferent," perhaps stemming from her caution regarding the risks and uncertainties in this field. Despite having some connection to the tech industry, her investment and policy choices clearly lean towards safety and stability. Compared to the risk-taking Trump, who comes from a business background, Harris undoubtedly appears more conservative.

"False Transformation"

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To win the election, Harris seems to be making some changes. Her campaign team recently recruited two advisors with cryptocurrency backgrounds: David Plouffe and Gene Sperling. Plouffe was a former campaign manager and senior advisor for President Obama, and after leaving the White House in 2013, he actively engaged in the cryptocurrency field, serving as a global strategic advisor for Binance's Global Advisory Board and Alchemy Pay. The other advisor joining Harris's team, Sperling, previously served on Ripple's board and held important economic advisory roles in the Clinton and Obama administrations.

On the surface, these actions appear to show Harris's emphasis on cryptocurrencies, as she is working to establish connections with the crypto industry. The addition of these two advisors may also provide her with some support and assistance in winning the election and formulating cryptocurrency policies. However, do these "superficial efforts" truly reflect a change in her attitude? The answer seems to be negative.

Previously, there were rumors that Harris would attend the Bitcoin conference held at the end of July and speak. It is well-known that Trump, even after being shot, boldly announced he would attend this conference and indeed expressed that he would formulate a series of crypto-friendly policies at the event. The crypto market was eagerly anticipating how the two candidates would debate at the conference. However, the outcome was disappointing; David Bailey quickly confirmed that Harris would not attend, and she indeed did not show up.

Of course, considering that Harris had just been nominated as a presidential candidate and was busy with affairs, it might be understandable that she could not attend the conference. However, her subsequent absence from a virtual roundtable organized by California Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna raised widespread questions in the crypto industry. At the meeting, well-known representatives from the crypto industry, including Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, and Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams, engaged in dialogue with Democratic officials. As a representative of the Democratic Party, Harris should have attended this meeting. Therefore, Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss publicly questioned the reason for Harris's absence from the meeting on the X platform to express his dissatisfaction.

Perhaps influenced by these factors, the dialogue between crypto representatives and Democratic representatives at the roundtable was not smooth. Industry executives failed to reach a consensus with Democratic officials and instead harshly criticized government officials. Major donors like Conway expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's hollow promises. This tension highlights the policy stance differences between the crypto industry and the Democratic government and deepens the crypto industry's doubts about Harris: does she really value cryptocurrencies?

Harsh Policies May Continue

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Now, with Harris once again absent from important events related to cryptocurrencies, everyone feels quite disappointed. However, her approval ratings continue to rise steadily. As a member of the crypto industry, we cannot help but wonder: if Harris wins the election, what impact will it have on the cryptocurrency market?

In my previous article, "From Trump to Biden: The Evolution and Impact of U.S. Cryptocurrency Policy," I mentioned that the Biden administration has adopted stricter regulatory and tax transparency measures in the crypto market. While these measures have reduced market uncertainty to some extent, they have also raised concerns and opposition from the crypto community. As a Democratic candidate, Harris may find it difficult to break this established framework in her policies.

Arca's Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman has pointed out that while Trump's election may be more favorable for the cryptocurrency market, Harris's victory will not be as bad as some fear. He also mentioned that heavyweight figures in the Democratic Party, such as Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, have recently supported some favorable legislation for cryptocurrencies, indicating that attitudes towards cryptocurrencies within the Democratic Party are changing.

However, are these changes sufficient? Galaxy Research's research director Alex Thorn pointed out on X that because Harris has chosen two anti-cryptocurrency officials (Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti) from the Biden administration to join her team, she may continue Biden's hostile policies.

It is important to note that Trump has explicitly proposed a plan to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and is even considering using Bitcoin to address America's dollar debt issues. These bold statements are currently unmatched by the Democratic Party. Given Harris's past actions and the Democratic Party's long-standing harsh policies, I personally find it hard to believe that she would propose lenient policies. Therefore, I have deep concerns about the cryptocurrency market under Harris's potential presidency.

Trump: The Market's Favorite

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As mentioned earlier, Trump's advantage lies in his consistently crypto-friendly stance. From launching multiple series of NFTs to hosting dinners for NFT rights, to boldly attending the Bitcoin conference at the risk of his life, compared to Biden, who hurriedly launched his own meme to win the crypto community's favor when he was significantly behind, and Harris's seemingly glamorous moves of recruiting a crypto team and holding meetings, Trump's performance is undoubtedly more "sincere."

From the perspective of the crypto market, whether it is Trump's relatively lenient policies during his presidency or the recent surge of memes related to Trump, the crypto market clearly leans towards him.

Additionally, Trump recently held a Space event with crypto leader Elon Musk on X. Although the entire dialogue did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, Trump's proactive engagement with Musk undoubtedly boosted his favorability in the crypto circles. This positive action indicates that Trump seems to be trying to solidify his support within the crypto community and demonstrate interest and openness towards the field.

While we can criticize that these actions and statements may just be "empty promises" to win votes, compared to the Democratic Party's long-standing harsh policies, the crypto market is clearly more willing to accept Trump's "promises." After all, every time a political event related to Trump occurs, it brings a significant surge to the cryptocurrency market. In the face of visible benefits, perhaps we do not need to overly anticipate the elusive and intangible policies of Harris.

In Conclusion

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Overall, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrencies seems to still be in exploration. Although she has recently taken some measures to try to get closer to the crypto community, her actions and statements seem to always contradict each other, and her stance remains unclear. Personally, I find it hard to have enough confidence in Harris at this stage compared to Trump. For the crypto market, whether Harris's lead can truly bring benefits still needs time to verify. As the election campaign progresses, it may be worthwhile to continue monitoring her movements in this field, as clearer signals may emerge.