SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240418): BTC ETF Fund Inflows Continue to Slow Down

Yesterday, traders remained in loss control mode, and market risk sentiment cooled again. After Powell poured cold water on the prospects of interest rate cuts this year, U.S. Treasury prices rebounded, while the S&P 500 index fell for four consecutive days, marking the longest decline since January. This wave of declines spared no one, as fear sentiment replaced FOMO sentiment, with prices of gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies all under pressure.

On the political front, the U.S. is preparing to raise tariffs on Chinese steel imports and will implement some other new restrictions. Additionally, the TikTok bill has made significant progress in Congress.

Current prices may be entirely driven by technical factors and positions. Different sentiment indicators show that the recent decline has caused significant technical damage, but there is also a chance for an oversold rebound. The number of Nasdaq and SPX stocks hitting one-month lows has reached a new high in nearly a year, and Citigroup's proprietary sentiment barometer has shifted to the "fear" zone after the recent decline.

In terms of corporate earnings, the start has been mediocre, with mixed results in the banking sector (JPM missed expectations, while Goldman Sachs exceeded them), and LVMH's sales fell short of expectations due to weak luxury goods purchases in China. In the tech sector, Dutch giant ASML saw a 61% drop in first-quarter orders to €3.6 billion, far below the expected €4.6 billion, while TSMC and Samsung experienced a slowdown in new orders due to increased global semiconductor manufacturing capacity and high inventory levels, leading to weak performance.

In the cryptocurrency space, there is nothing noteworthy, but Ark ETF has seen outflows for the second consecutive day, totaling $42 million, while Grayscale also experienced outflows of $133 million. Blackrock's IBIT only saw inflows of $18 million, resulting in a total net outflow of over $160 million. Prices are expected to show more sideways/downward movement in the short term…