Author: Mongqi | Editor: Mongqi

1. Bitcoin Market and Mining Data

From February 10 to February 16, 2025, the price trend of Bitcoin was as follows:
During this period, Bitcoin exhibited a fluctuating trend, with multiple highs and subsequent pullbacks. The opening price on February 10 was $96,469, dipping to a low of $94,896 before rebounding, reaching a high of $98,077. On February 11, the upward trend continued, peaking at $98,442 before quickly retreating, and by the morning of the 12th, it fell to $94,940, entering a period of market adjustment. On February 12, the price fluctuated between $94,730 and $96,400, dropping to an intraday low of $94,737 in the evening. After opening on February 13, the price quickly surged to $98,062, then fell back to $95,865, with overall volatility narrowing. On February 14, it oscillated upward from around $95,500, breaking through the weekly high of $98,545 in the early hours of the 15th, before retreating to $97,054. From February 15 to 16, the price fluctuated narrowly between $97,000 and $98,000, with market liquidity stabilizing. As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was $97,596. Overall, market sentiment was mixed, with short-term fluctuations primarily in a range, requiring attention to subsequent changes in trading volume and breakthroughs of key resistance levels.

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/02/10-2025/02/16)

Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flow
From February 10 to February 16, 2025, the capital flow in the Bitcoin market showed a trend of short-term adjustment and long-term bullishness. In terms of ETF funds, there was an outflow of $243 million on February 12, indicating that some institutions were taking profits, but institutions like JPMorgan remained optimistic about long-term allocations. Bitcoin holdings on exchanges decreased, with a net outflow of 12,000 BTC (approximately $1.15 billion) from mainstream exchanges on February 12, and a total outflow of 26,500 BTC over the past week, reflecting investors' preference for long-term holding (HODL). In the derivatives market, open interest (OI) in futures fell by 8% from February 10 to 12, but rebounded after February 13, indicating that leveraged funds were still in play. OTC market data showed that institutions were quietly increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Additionally, Bitcoin network activity significantly declined, with trading volume dropping about 55% from peak levels, indicating a decrease in market activity. Overall, short-term volatility intensified, but long-term capital flow still leaned bullish. In summary, the short-term market experienced increased volatility due to ETF fund outflows and macro data, but long-term capital flow remained bullish.
Technical Analysis
From February 10 to February 16, 2025, Bitcoin prices maintained a fluctuating adjustment trend, finding support around $95,000 but failing to break through the strong resistance in the $98,000-$100,000 range. In terms of technical indicators, the 50-day moving average ($96,800) provided support, while the 200-day moving average ($89,500) maintained a long-term upward trend, indicating that the bullish structure was still intact. The RSI remained between 53 and 58, reflecting neutral market sentiment, with trading volume decreasing by about 12% from previous levels, showing weakened short-term buying momentum. Additionally, the MACD formed a death cross on February 12, increasing short-term adjustment pressure, but the momentum bars began to shorten on February 14, possibly indicating a brewing directional choice. Overall, Bitcoin is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term; if it can break through $98,000, it may challenge the $100,000 mark. Conversely, if it falls below $95,000, further pullback risks should be monitored.
Market Sentiment

From February 10 to February 16, 2025, overall market sentiment was cautiously optimistic, but there were short-term divergences. The Fear & Greed Index stabilized between 75 and 78, in the "Greed" zone, indicating that the market still had bullish sentiment, although it had cooled compared to the 85+ highs in early February. Social media and derivatives market data showed that the long-short ratio for BTC futures was between 1.12 and 1.18, indicating that the market still leaned towards the bulls, but the bullish advantage was gradually narrowing. In terms of CME Bitcoin futures positions, the proportion of long positions held by institutional accounts fell from 62% on February 10 to 58% on February 15, indicating that some institutions were reducing positions at high levels to lock in profits. Meanwhile, the USDT premium index briefly dropped to 0.98, indicating that short-term buying in the Asian market had slowed, but there was no significant panic selling. Analysis firm BCA Research noted that there was an atmosphere of excessive optimism in the market, with over 90% of Bitcoin holders in profit, which is usually a signal of market tops. Overall, market sentiment remained optimistic, but bullish momentum had weakened, and investors were cautious about the resistance in the $98,000-$100,000 range, leading Bitcoin prices into a phase of consolidation.

Macroeconomic Background

From February 10 to February 16, 2025, Bitcoin prices were significantly influenced by macroeconomic and market events. The US January CPI, released on February 13, rose by 3.1% year-on-year (higher than the expected 2.9%), leading to a cooling of market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking above 4.3% and the dollar index (DXY) rising to 105.2, causing Bitcoin to briefly retreat to $96,200. Meanwhile, the daily inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs dropped to $120 million, significantly down from $380 million in early February, reflecting cautious institutional capital behavior. On February 14, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that "more confirmation is needed for inflation to decline," reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut in June, but Bitcoin still failed to break through $100,000. On February 12, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, pushing Bitcoin up to $98,700, but rising US Treasury yields limited the increase. Overall, Bitcoin faced short-term pressure from CPI data, Fed statements, and slowing ETF inflows, but geopolitical tensions provided some support, leading to a cautious market sentiment.

Hash Rate Changes:

From February 10 to February 16, 2025, the Bitcoin network hash rate experienced significant fluctuations, showing an overall trend of "initial pullback, followed by recovery." On February 10, the hash rate slightly declined from the previous day's 877.93 EH/s, hitting a low of 737.95 EH/s, before quickly rebounding to 825.44 EH/s. On February 11, the hash rate exhibited a "decline---rebound---further drop" pattern, briefly rising from 714.28 EH/s to 780.39 EH/s, but then further dropping to the week's low of 680.48 EH/s.
Starting February 12, the hash rate entered a recovery phase, showing an overall upward trend. On February 13, the hash rate climbed to 916.93 EH/s before retreating to 826.70 EH/s. From February 14 to 15, the hash rate continued to grow, rising from 826.70 EH/s to 922.34 EH/s, briefly pulling back to around 860 EH/s before again oscillating upward to 962.04 EH/s, demonstrating strong recovery momentum. On February 16, the hash rate broke through 972.18 EH/s, and as of the time of writing, it slightly retreated to 913.51 EH/s.
Overall, the hash rate fluctuated significantly this week, with short-term pullbacks and recoveries potentially influenced by miner revenue adjustments, changes in mining difficulty, and market liquidity. Future trends need to be closely monitored to assess the sustainability of hash rate recovery and its potential market impact.

Hash Rate Data of the Bitcoin Network

Mining Revenue:

From February 10 to February 16, 2025, Bitcoin miners' revenue was affected by hash rate fluctuations, increased mining difficulty, and changes in Bitcoin prices. On February 9, the seven-day moving average hash rate of the Bitcoin network reached 809 EH/s, and during the subsequent difficulty adjustment, it increased by about 5%, leading to a decrease in mining revenue per unit of hash power. According to YCharts data, miners' total daily revenue dropped to $43.52 million on February 10, down 10.48% from the previous day and down 7.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices fluctuated between $96,103 and $97,648.59 during this period, although still above the average mining cost for miners (approximately $26,000 to $28,000), increased difficulty and rising energy costs further compressed profit margins. In summary, miners faced revenue pressure this week, and future attention should be paid to Bitcoin market trends and the impact of the next difficulty adjustment on mining revenue.

Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency:

According to CloverPool data, as of February 16, 2025, the total network hash rate was approximately 823.37 EH/s, and the total mining difficulty was 114.17 T. The next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment is expected to decrease by 0.10% in six days, bringing it down to 114.06 T.
According to Cointelegraph, the average transaction confirmation time on the Bitcoin network in 2025 has reached 19 minutes, a historical high. This phenomenon is mainly influenced by network congestion, block size limitations, and dynamic changes in transaction fees. The extended confirmation time directly increases miners' energy costs, as mining machines need to run for longer periods to compete for new blocks, while the output of blocks per unit time decreases, leading to reduced mining efficiency. At the same time, rising transaction fees prompt miners to prioritize packaging high-fee transactions to compensate for revenue losses, but if the increase in fees is insufficient to cover the additional energy costs, overall profitability remains compressed. Additionally, intensified hash rate competition may lead some miners to adjust their operational strategies or upgrade to more efficient mining equipment to optimize hash power utilization. In the long run, this trend may drive the Bitcoin network towards more efficient mining equipment and second-layer scaling solutions to address the cost pressures arising from mainnet congestion.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

2. Policy and Regulatory News

Overview of Bitcoin Legislative Progress in US States

Currently, 21 states in the US have proposed bills related to Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR). Here are the legislative updates from major states:

1. Texas: The state has resubmitted the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, which, if passed, would allow the state government to invest in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies with a market cap of at least $500 billion, with no purchase limit. The bill has been submitted to the Senate Finance Committee for review and is listed as one of the top 40 priority bills in the 2025 Senate.

2. North Carolina: A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill has been proposed, which could make it the first official state in the US to purchase Bitcoin.

3. Florida: A Florida state representative has submitted the state's second Bitcoin Reserve bill, proposing to allow 10% of state funds to be invested in Bitcoin.

4. Oklahoma: The state's Bitcoin Reserve bill has passed the committee and is about to enter the voting phase in the full house.

5. Utah: Progressing the fastest, Utah's Bitcoin Reserve bill has passed the House Economic Development Committee and is currently awaiting Senate review. If passed, it could take effect as early as May 7 this year.

6. Georgia: On February 14, Georgia proposed a bill aimed at allowing the state treasurer to invest in Bitcoin.

7. West Virginia: On February 15, West Virginia Senator Chris Rose submitted a bill proposing to allow the state treasury to invest up to 10% of its funds in Bitcoin or precious metals to hedge against inflation risks. The bill stipulates that the state treasury can invest in digital assets with a market cap exceeding $750 billion, with Bitcoin currently being the only asset that meets this standard. Assets can be held on-chain or invested through ETFs.

Former Thai Prime Minister Proposes Developing Phuket as a Bitcoin Sandbox Zone

On February 11, it was reported by Bitcoin News that former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra proposed developing Phuket as a Bitcoin sandbox zone, allowing foreign tourists to use Bitcoin to pay for real estate and tourism-related expenses without cash restrictions.

3. Mining News

An Independent Miner Receives a $300,000 Bitcoin Block Reward
On February 11, it was reported that an independent Bitcoin miner hit the jackpot, successfully mining a block and receiving a reward of 3.125 Bitcoins, worth over $300,000. According to the Bitcoin block explorer Mempool.space, block 883,181, mined on February 10, contained 3,071 transactions, with a total reward of 3.15 Bitcoins, and the miner's information was listed as unknown.
Bitcoin miner Marshall Long stated in a post on platform X on February 10 that the miner used an implementation of CKPOOL, but "it seems not to be directly from CKPOOL." He speculated that the lucky miner might have used Bitaxe.

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Explosion in a Malaysian City Reveals an Illegal Bitcoin Mining Operation
On February 13, it was reported by Decrypt that an explosion occurred in Bandar Puncak Alam, Malaysia, revealing an illegal Bitcoin mining operation, marking another case of electricity theft related to cryptocurrency in the country.
At 11:41 AM on Tuesday, smoke and flames were seen coming from the involved house, prompting local residents to call for help. After the fire was extinguished at 4:45 PM, investigators discovered a complex illegal setup: nine Bitcoin mining machines, a blower, and a D-link router, all connected to unauthorized power sources.
In Malaysia, while Bitcoin mining itself is not illegal, tampering with power supply lines is a criminal act under Section 37 of the Electricity Supply Act, punishable by a fine of up to 100,000 Malaysian Ringgit ($23,700) and up to five years in prison.

4. Bitcoin News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week's Statistics)

1. El Salvador: Increased holdings by 17 BTC this week, bringing the total to 6,072.18 BTC, continuing the country's Bitcoin strategy. The current Bitcoin holdings of El Salvador are approximately $592 million.
2. Metaplanet: Bitcoin holdings that have not realized profits amount to $35 million, with plans to increase holdings to 21,000 BTC by 2026 and expand holdings through bond financing and other means. Metaplanet announced the issuance of 4 billion Japanese yen in ordinary bonds to purchase more Bitcoin, further intensifying its Bitcoin investment strategy.
3. Holo: Plans to raise $200 million to invest in Bitcoin and related derivatives to enhance capital reserves.
4. Japanese Gaming Company Gumi: Plans to purchase $66 million worth of Bitcoin and obtain additional returns through the Babylon staking protocol.
5. KULR: Increased holdings by $10 million at an average price of $1,039.05, expanding total holdings to 610 BTC.
6. MicroStrategy: Cumulatively increased holdings by 18,527 BTC in 2024, bringing approximately $1.8 billion in returns to shareholders.
7. Goldman Sachs: Increased Bitcoin ETF holdings to $1.5 billion in Q4 2024, adding 88% to BlackRock's IBIT and 105% to Fidelity's BTC fund. According to the latest disclosures, Goldman Sachs currently holds only $3.6 million in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
8. National Bank of Canada: Purchased $2 million worth of Bitcoin ETF, with institutional investors continuing to increase their positions in the Bitcoin market.
9. Hive Digital: Increased Bitcoin holdings to 2,805 BTC by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 263%, with significant Bitcoin mining revenue.
10. SBC Medical: Plans to buy $6.7 million worth of Bitcoin as part of a long-term asset allocation to hedge against inflation.
11. Bank of Montreal (BMO): Spent $150 million to purchase Bitcoin ETF, with $139 million directed towards BlackRock's iShares BTC ETF.
12. Tether: Holds $7.8 billion in Bitcoin and $5.3 billion in precious metals, with strategy advisors suggesting this could be one of the best commodity hedge trades in history.
13. Family Office Avenir Group: Holds $599 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.
14. Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund: Increased Bitcoin ETF holdings by $436 million in Q1.
15. National Bank of Canada: Recently showed a bearish attitude towards Bitcoin and has applied to exercise put options, selling over $1.3 million in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF holdings.
16. Wisconsin Investment Board: Increased holdings in BlackRock's IBIT to 6 million shares, with a market value exceeding $340 million at the current price of $56.10 per share.
17. Millennium Management: Holds $2.6 billion in Bitcoin ETF and $182 million in Ethereum ETF.

David Sacks: Bitcoin is Supported by Mathematics, Not Government Backing
On February 10, it was reported by Cointelegraph that Trump's crypto and AI advisor David Sacks recently stated, "Bitcoin provides a different type of currency; it is not government-backed but is supported by mathematics."
Opinion: Bitcoin Continues to Fluctuate Below $100,000, Market Becomes Gradually Pessimistic
On February 10, macro researcher Adam from Greeks.live wrote that there were many important macro events this week, with the Fed and US economic data being quite prominent, and the monetary policy and CPI data over the next six months are worth paying attention to.
New EU regulations require crypto exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures, with exchanges like Deribit needing to improve KYC to operate normally.
The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has come into full effect, with compliant exchanges like Kraken gradually delisting stablecoins like USDT in Europe. The crypto market remains sluggish, with Bitcoin continuing to fluctuate below $100,000, and altcoins experiencing significant declines over the past month, leading to a weakening of the market's wealth effect and a gradual shift from enthusiasm to pessimism.
In terms of options, the implied volatility (IV) for the full term continues to decline, with the current month's at-the-money IV dropping below 50% and quarterly at-the-money IV below 55%, indicating that market speculation is not intense. Recently, there has been a significant amount of large bullish options trading, mainly driven by large holders adjusting their positions.
Polymarket Predicts a 41% Chance of the US Establishing a National Bitcoin Reserve by 2025
On February 11, Polymarket predicted a 41% chance of the US establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025, having previously peaked at 65% on January 17. As of the time of writing, the total trading volume for this prediction reached $722,000.
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin Price Expected to Reach $1.5 Million by 2030
On February 12, it was reported that since February 4, concerns over a new round of import tariffs announced by the US and China have put pressure on investor sentiment, with Bitcoin trading below the critical $100,000 level. Despite the temporary market slump, according to ARK Invest's CEO and CIO Cathie Wood, the chances of Bitcoin breaking through $1.5 million per coin have increased.

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VanEck Analyst: Current Bitcoin Reserve Bills in 20 States Could Bring in $23 Billion in Incremental Funds
On February 12, VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, posted on social media that the institution analyzed Bitcoin reserve bills released by 20 states. If enacted, they could drive $2.3 billion in funds into the market for purchases, independent of any pension fund allocations, and if legislators push forward, even more funds could enter.
Analysis: Bitcoin Bull Market May Not Be Over, 200-Week Moving Average Trend Shows Bullish Signals
On February 14, TradingView data showed that the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at $44,200. Although it has reached historical highs, it is still far below the peak of $69,000 during the 2021 bull market. Historical data shows that bull markets typically end when the 200-week moving average rises to the previous bull market peak. For example, the 2021 bull market ended when the 200-week moving average reached the 2017 peak of $19,000, while the 2017 bull market ended when the moving average reached the 2013 peak of $1,200.
Currently, BTC prices are fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000. If historical trends continue, this range may break out with a bullish trend. Additionally, data from the Deribit options market supports this view. According to Amberdata's statistics, the prices of long-term call options are higher than those of put options, reflecting market expectations for price increases. The current market price is $96,700, with the most popular options being call options with a strike price of $120,000, which have a nominal open interest exceeding $1.8 billion.
Bitwise Europe Research Director: Weakening Dollar and Central Banks Reducing US Treasury Holdings May Benefit Bitcoin and Gold
On February 14, Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch stated that Bitcoin and gold are gaining market attention against the backdrop of a macroeconomic environment suggesting a potential shift in the dollar's dominance.
As the largest overseas holder of US debt, China and Japan are reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds, raising concerns about the long-term demand for US government bonds. Dragosch revealed that some foreign central banks have inquired with Bitwise about the possibility of shifting part of their US Treasury investments to spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the Czech National Bank is also considering similar measures.
CZ: Fed Chair Powell's View on Bitcoin is Improving Gradually
On February 15, Fed Chair Powell stated that Bitcoin is digital gold and currently does not replace the dollar, but is a strong competitor to gold. In response, Binance co-founder CZ remarked that Powell's view on Bitcoin is improving gradually.

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Former CFTC Chair: Bitcoin's Scarcity is Causing Its Rapid Appreciation
On February 16, it was reported by Cointelegraph that former CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo stated, "The design of Bitcoin has already determined its scarcity. You can never own more than a certain number of Bitcoins. Bitcoin is rapidly appreciating."
Total On-Chain Holdings of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Exceeds 1.2 Million BTC
On February 16, it was reported that the total on-chain holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1.2 million BTC, currently reaching approximately 1.205 million BTC, accounting for 6.08% of the current BTC supply, with on-chain holdings valued at approximately $117.7 billion.