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Data: The daily trading volume of cryptocurrencies dropped from a peak of $126 billion after the U.S. election to $35 billion, a decrease of 70%

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, on November 5, after the U.S. elections, the daily trading volume of cryptocurrencies surged to $126 billion against a backdrop of heightened market enthusiasm and active speculation. It has now fallen to $35 billion, a decline of about 70% from its peak, returning to pre-election levels. Recent tariff announcements targeting major U.S. trading partners have introduced uncertainty, dampening trading enthusiasm in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.Moreover, trading volume has maintained a historical correlation with total market capitalization, with both showing similar trends in recent months. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies peaked at around $3.9 trillion, then fell back to the current level of about $2.9 trillion, a decrease of 25%.The shrinking trading volume may signal various potential changes in the market over the coming months. Historically, a prolonged decline in trading volume often precedes significant market volatility, as the reduction in liquidity can amplify price impacts when large participants begin to reallocate.Market participants may be waiting for a clearer comprehensive policy on cryptocurrency regulation from the Trump administration before engaging more actively. The decrease in trading activity and relatively stable market capitalization suggests that an accumulation phase may be underway, with investors focusing more on positioning rather than active trading. Upcoming regulatory announcements, particularly those regarding cryptocurrency classification and regulatory structure, could serve as potential catalysts to reignite trading activity.

Analysis: The Monte Carlo model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will peak at $713,000 within 6 months

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear," a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025.Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant analyzed Bitcoin prices using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate various possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates the average final price of Bitcoin to be $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return).However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis carries uncertainty akin to "rolling dice." Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market cap could reach a new high of over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.

Placeholder Partner: We are currently in the correction phase of a bull market, not at the peak of this bull market

ChainCatcher news, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske tweeted that the current market sentiment is low, and many people are choosing to sell at the lows, but he believes this is an opportunity rather than an endpoint. He thinks that this may just be a pullback in the bull market, not the peak of this bull run. Even if Bitcoin may still drop a bit, selling now might not be a good choice, as it could lead to missing out on subsequent rises.He advises investors to stay calm; if they don't know what to do, they can choose not to look at price fluctuations. If they still have funds, they might consider buying in batches when the market looks very attractive or when sentiment is at its most pessimistic. He reminds them not to trust those who "always trade perfectly," as holding onto promising assets for the long term is key.Burniske also mentioned that the speed of price fluctuations in Bitcoin and crypto assets is the fastest in financial markets. If the stock market experiences greater volatility, policies may intervene, and the crypto market will respond most sensitively to this. He encourages investors not to miss opportunities due to fear or frequent trading and is confident about the future of the blockchain industry, believing that institutional entry and technological applications are accelerating.
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