Professor Yu Xiong from Surrey University: Including altcoins in national reserves is a "double-edged sword," with a "short-term optimistic, long-term cautious" impact on the industry
ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Professor Yu Xiong, Dean of the School of Blockchain and Metaverse Applications at Surrey University, conducted an in-depth analysis of the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in national-backed reserves, calling it a "double-edged sword" with clear advantages and disadvantages.Xiong pointed out that the main advantage of a multi-asset reserve is the provision of more diverse options, reducing over-reliance on Bitcoin, which currently accounts for about half of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. "The DeFi ecosystem of Ethereum (with a total locked value of about $50 billion) and the high-speed transactions of Solana (65,000 TPS) represent technological diversity." He added that the inclusion of altcoins also acknowledges the broader application scenarios of blockchain, such as Ukraine raising $135 million in crypto donations through coins like ETH and SOL after being invaded by Russia in 2022.However, Xiong emphasized several potential risks. The first is regulatory uncertainty, as the SEC is still in litigation with Ripple, "the government holding these tokens may face opposition." The second is liquidity risk; due to the low trading volumes of these coins, government purchases or sales could lead to significant price surges or drops. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's trading volume was $54.8 billion, while ETH was $23.4 billion, XRP was $5.5 billion, SOL was $5.4 billion, and ADA was $3.6 billion, which may indicate that some altcoins "lack the depth for large-scale reserves."Regarding concerns about market manipulation, Xiong stated, "The market disruption caused by the U.S. Treasury's sale of 30,000 Silk Road Bitcoins in 2014 was minimal, but today, selling 3% of the Bitcoin supply (about $5.5 billion) could lead to a 15% price drop."On the potential impact of U.S. crypto reserves, Xiong believes it will provide strong support for the crypto and blockchain industry, marking an increase in institutional acceptance and accelerating the adoption of traditional financial companies, similar to how BlackRock attracted $18 billion in assets under management within six months after launching a Bitcoin ETF. He stated, "U.S. reserves may mimic the role of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in energy security, positioning cryptocurrencies as geopolitical tools."Xiong also warned that the crypto market remains fragile, with Bitcoin's annualized volatility fluctuating between 30% and 60% over the past year, while oil volatility is below 35%. Higher volatility raises concerns about manipulation or unintended market distortions.Regarding the impact of U.S. crypto reserves on the crypto and blockchain industry, Xiong summarized it as "short-term optimism, long-term caution," believing it could provide "cover" for institutional investors like pension funds. "If the U.S. government deems it appropriate, then corporate treasuries and institutional investors may also find it appropriate. The $50 trillion managed by pension funds and insurance companies globally may increase their allocation to cryptocurrencies," Xiong stated, similar to the situation after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.