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BTC $69,203.77 +3.48%
ETH $2,137.73 +4.93%
BNB $604.12 +1.98%
XRP $1.34 +3.23%
SOL $81.99 +2.99%
TRX $0.3174 -0.13%
DOGE $0.0922 +2.33%
ADA $0.2552 +5.38%
BCH $436.63 +0.33%
LINK $8.98 +5.19%
HYPE $37.32 +4.27%
AAVE $96.05 +3.52%
SUI $0.8912 +4.58%
XLM $0.1615 +1.69%
ZEC $254.36 +3.76%

expansion

Analysis: If the US-Iran conflict continues for several months, war spending and debt expansion may benefit Bitcoin

Macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues for months, the increase in fiscal spending, debt expansion, and declining interest rates brought about by the war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.Connors pointed out that wars typically require financing through the issuance of more government bonds, which will increase the supply of dollars in the financial system, thereby weakening the value of existing currencies and benefiting non-dollar assets like Bitcoin. Since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of U.S. federal debt has been about 14%, and if this trend continues, the debt size may continue to grow by about 15% year-on-year. He believes that this ongoing debt expansion is essentially a form of "monetary dilution," which has historically been beneficial for Bitcoin's performance. Since the U.S. first launched strikes against Iran, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 3.6%. As U.S. government debt increases and relies more on short-term bond financing, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of "declining interest rates + ongoing debt expansion," liquidity typically improves, which is precisely the macro backdrop in which Bitcoin has historically performed strongly.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin shows recovery signals after five consecutive bearish candles, with healthy expansion of derivatives indicating a phase of recovery

Bitfinex reports that Bitcoin has experienced a consecutive five-month decline since 2025, marking the first occurrence of a "five consecutive down" structure since 2018, with a monthly drop of 14.93% in February and a maximum cumulative drawdown of approximately 52.34%. However, early signs of market recovery have emerged in March.Data shows that since March 1, approximately $3.2 billion in BTC has been systematically purchased at market price across exchanges, successfully reclaiming the $65,000 level; the Coinbase premium index has ended its continuous 40-day negative value and turned positive, indicating a return of U.S. spot buying. The derivatives structure also remains relatively healthy: open interest has risen to $53.1 billion, a 15.4% increase from Sunday’s close, but the perpetual funding rate is only about 9.5% APR, showing no signs of overheating. Open interest and spot have expanded in sync, reflecting that this round of increase is more driven by spot absorption.Regarding ETFs, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $1.1 billion in net inflows last week, with a total of over $450 million on Monday and Tuesday, indicating that institutional demand remains a core support. Analysts believe that if key support holds, Bitcoin may recover to the $80,000-$85,000 range in the next 1-3 months; in the short term, attention should be paid to the $72,000-$74,000 area of concentrated short liquidations and the potential dynamic support at $66,000. The overall judgment remains cautiously bullish.

Gate Research Institute: Gold and silver prices have risen to historical highs, driving significant expansion in the tokenized commodities sector

The Gate Research Institute recently released the report "Cryptocurrency Market Review for January 2026," which points out that in January, the market capitalization distribution of stablecoins on public chains remains highly concentrated. Ethereum accounts for more than half of the share, continuing its position as a core clearing and DeFi liquidity hub; Tron firmly holds second place, playing a key role as a high-frequency settlement channel in cross-chain payments and token transfers.In terms of macro assets, gold and silver prices have risen to historical highs, driving significant expansion in the tokenized commodity sector. The total market capitalization of related tokens has surpassed $5 billion, with an increase of over 35% in the past 30 days, and monthly on-chain transfer volume exceeding $13 billion, with gold-related tokens being the main growth driver. Meanwhile, the trading volume in prediction markets reached a new high of $12 billion in January, with total on-chain transaction fees exceeding $11 million. With the support of incentive mechanisms and short-cycle high-frequency contracts, trading activity and protocol revenue have both increased.On the capital side, the Web3 industry completed a total of 53 financing rounds in January, with a cumulative scale of approximately $1.82 billion, primarily flowing into blockchain services and CeFi-related sectors.In terms of security, Web3 risk events exhibit a "few large amounts, dispersed small amounts" loss structure. Contract vulnerabilities remain the primary source of risk, accounting for 34.5%; among them, Step Finance suffered a supply chain attack, resulting in asset losses of approximately $40 million, making it the largest security incident of the month.
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