ChainCatcher news, on October 19 local time, Musk announced at an event in Pennsylvania that starting from that day until November 5, the day of the U.S. elections, he would randomly distribute $1 million daily to a registered voter in Pennsylvania who signed the "America PAC" petition. The first winner of the day has already been announced.Previously, federal documents released on Tuesday showed that Musk donated $75 million to the "America PAC," which supports Trump's presidential campaign, in the third quarter ending in September.

ChainCatcher news, the betting amount on the U.S. election on the prediction market Polymarket has surpassed $2.1 billion.Data shows that the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is currently reported at 60.1%, while Harris's probability of winning is reported at 39.9%, with a gap of over 20 percentage points between the two.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a weekly summary stating that this week has been an exciting one for cryptocurrencies. BTC rose by 10.48%, reaching a high of $69,000, with the psychological barrier of $70,000 now within reach. There are no major macro data points to act as resistance next week.The inflow of BTC ETFs this week has been substantial. As of Friday, ETF inflows reached $203.3 million, and there has been a net inflow trend for six consecutive days. The continued inflow into ETFs indicates that institutional demand remains strong. With the SEC approving Bitcoin ETF options to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) this morning, it is believed that this will provide the necessary liquidity for ETFs, attracting sustainable capital inflows.Bitcoin's market share currently stands at a multi-year high of 58%, a level last seen in April 2021. As it approaches the key resistance level of 60%, we believe this will lay the foundation for a strong recovery of Layer 1 (L1) tokens.As the U.S. stock market approaches historical highs, the yen continues to weaken, and with the U.S. elections approaching, risk appetite will only strengthen further. This will drive up risk assets and support the "Uptober" rebound narrative.

ChainCatcher news, the Growth Lead Intern of Monad posted on platform X that the probability curve of Trump winning on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with the price trend of Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan announced on October 18 local time the evidence in the Trump election immunity lawsuit, failing to postpone the announcement until after the November 5 U.S. presidential election.Previously, on July 1, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump enjoys a certain degree of immunity from criminal prosecution in federal cases involving alleged "interference in the 2020 election," but does not have immunity from prosecution for actions taken in a private capacity, and instructed lower courts to reconsider the case to determine which actions qualify as "official acts" that cannot be prosecuted.This ruling indicates that the progress of the case will take time. U.S. media generally believe that Trump is unlikely to face trial before the presidential election in November this year.

According to ChainCatcher news, Algorand has announced the 14 projects selected for its first batch of incubators.These include: the project Better Use Blockchain (BUB) that makes blockchain technology easy to use, the NFT subscription management platform Cycles, the game Graphyti that combines generative artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, the decentralized peer-to-peer consensus delegation platform Igoprotect, the wallet Kiwi Protocol, the platform MeMa that democratizes online art revenue, the diversified Web3 tool Myrkle, the decentralized crafts marketplace NaijaChain, the blockchain degree verification platform Pacify, the Engage to Earn platform Poma, the platform ReFind that uses blockchain technology to find people and lost items, the tokenized real estate solution Vank, and the crypto automated trading Telegram bot Vistia.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, as the U.S. presidential election approaches, the behavior of top bettors on Polymarket has raised concerns about the potential manipulation of prediction markets. Former President Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election are rising, largely influenced by a Polymarket user "Fredi9999," a major bettor holding over $20 million in pro-Trump wagers.Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trade Company, stated that Trump's expanding lead raises questions, as it seems unrelated to events in the real world that could explain shifts in public opinion.Currently, Trump's odds on Polymarket have risen to 60.2%. Analysts point out that this market dynamic could influence public perceptions of the election outcome and emphasize the need to assess the manipulation of prediction markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, Citigroup (C) stated in a research report on Wednesday that a significant victory for the Republican Party in the upcoming U.S. elections would be the most favorable outcome for Coinbase and the cryptocurrency market, while a victory for Harris and a split Congress could lead to more uncertainty in the digital asset industry.Analysts led by Peter Christiansen wrote, "The Trump/Vance combination has publicly supported digital asset reform, and Republican control of the Senate is crucial for passing bills like FIT21 and confirming pro-crypto institutional leaders. With consensus in both chambers of Congress, the pace of digital asset reform may accelerate."However, the report noted that a Republican victory in the Senate and a Democratic victory in the House would still be beneficial for Coinbase and the cryptocurrency market. The U.S. elections will be held on November 5, with results announced on November 8.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, a survey found that approximately 26 million American voters make up a "cryptocurrency voting bloc," who will prioritize support for cryptocurrency policies when deciding which candidate to vote for in the upcoming elections.According to a survey released by The Digital Chamber on October 17, among 1,004 respondents, one in seven (or 16%) indicated that cryptocurrency is "extremely" or "very" important in deciding who to vote for, and if a candidate supports cryptocurrency, they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote for that candidate. The respondents included both Democrats and Republicans, with at least 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans stating that a candidate's stance on cryptocurrency would positively influence their likelihood of voting for that candidate. The survey also found that two-fifths of Black voters consider a candidate's cryptocurrency policy an important criterion in deciding who to vote for, a proportion more than double that of White voters.Perianne Boring, founder and CEO of The Digital Chamber, stated that as experts predict an unusually fierce battle for the White House, the survey results should serve as a "wake-up call for policymakers." Boring said, "Given the expected narrow margin in key elections, this bipartisan cryptocurrency voting bloc could tip the balance. Voters are sending a clear message—they want sensible and balanced regulation that protects consumers without stifling innovation."

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily report stating that Bitcoin rose by 2.20% last night, briefly rebounding to the $68,000 mark driven by strong spot demand, and then stabilizing in the $67,000 range. During the U.S. trading session, there was a significant amount of buying in long-term options expiring on March 28, with 600 contracts at a strike price of $120,000.This indicates that optimistic long-term buyers are returning in this rebound. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw an increase of $456 million, continuing four days of net inflows. These strong and growing capital inflows may be a leading indicator for BTC to challenge its historical high of $73,790 again.Although the U.S. election is the next key catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, there remains uncertainty in the market regarding Bitcoin's trajectory post-election. The trading price of options expiring close to the election is at a premium of 10% compared to other expiring options. As everyone focuses on the election, any changes in polling or candidate campaign narratives will be amplified in the spot prices.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, the betting amount on the U.S. presidential election results on Polymarket has exceeded $2 billion. As of October 17, Republican candidate Trump has a betting amount of nearly $608 million on Polymarket, with a winning probability of 62.3%; Democratic candidate Harris has a betting amount of $405 million, with a winning probability of 37.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to IBTimes, based on data from Polymarket, Trump secured Nevada later on Wednesday (51% to 49%), and as of early Thursday, he still leads Harris in all the swing states tracked by the decentralized market prediction platform.It is noteworthy that Nevada was once a Republican-leaning state but has shifted to support the Democratic Party in recent years. Current trends indicate that the state may swing back to the Republican Party. Additionally, Nevada is considered one of the most "unpredictable" swing states in this year's election.Last year, the state showed great interest in cryptocurrency. The independent voters and multilingual environment in Nevada add uncertainty to the election, potentially becoming one of the key factors in determining the election outcome.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, based on data from the CFTC website, the prediction market Kalshi has launched more than a dozen event contracts related to U.S. political outcomes. As of October 16, Kalshi's flagship market "Who will win the presidential election?" has reached a total betting amount of $14 million since its launch on October 7.Kalshi's scale still lags far behind the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which has nearly $2 billion in betting amounts related to the U.S. presidential election.

ChainCatcher news, dYdX has launched a prediction contract market regarding the U.S. elections on the platform.Users can bet "yes" or "no" in the TRUMPWIN-USD market, with the final settlement price for each option being either $0 or $1, and the buy-in price at the time of betting being the cost price. It is worth mentioning that users can go long or short with up to 20x leverage (correct predictions can yield 20 times the profit, but conversely, a 5% adverse movement could lead to liquidation), which offers greater capital flexibility compared to traditional prediction markets.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that as the U.S. election approaches, various statistical channels show Trump leading in the competition, but there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election.Datalab options data shows that the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC during election week is 57%, while the at-the-money IV for the week before the election is only 47%, indicating a 10% IV differential for the election.The current term structure also reflects an implied market view: the market does not expect significant volatility before the election concludes. Market trading volume supports this, as even with a good upward trend this week, large players are reluctant to bet on further increases.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick released a report stating that Bitcoin is showing upward momentum and may approach its historical high of $73,800 before the U.S. presidential election.Kendrick pointed out that multiple factors are driving this potential price increase, including a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, a revival of interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and an increased probability of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election.According to the Polymarket prediction platform, Trump's chances have risen to 56.3%. If Trump wins, the probability of the Republican Party simultaneously controlling the Senate and the House of Representatives is 70%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that after a 5% increase on Monday, Bitcoin rose approximately 14% in October, reaching over $65,000. This was driven by the correlation with the rising odds of Donald Trump's election, with MicroStrategy being a leading indicator of a potential bullish breakout.Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia analyzed: "We believe that the recent strength of Bitcoin is due to the correlation of Bitcoin with the rising odds of Trump's election. Although both sides express support for digital assets, the crypto market's bids are stronger due to Trump's increased odds in the election prediction market."

ChainCatcher news indicates that the betting amount on the U.S. election on the prediction market Polymarket is nearly $1.9 billion. Data shows that the probability of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is currently reported at 55.8%, while Harris's probability of winning the election is currently reported at 43.7%.