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Bloomberg: The Binance hacking incident has prompted reflection in the cryptocurrency industry, which may reintroduce trading delays and other Wall Street risk control mechanisms

According to Bloomberg, the Binance hacking incident is prompting the cryptocurrency industry to re-examine its long-held decentralized philosophy, as well as the transaction review, settlement delays, and fund intervention mechanisms in the traditional financial system.As the cryptocurrency industry seeks to enter the mainstream financial market in the United States, some institutional investors are beginning to reconsider Wall Street's financial risk control mechanisms. In traditional finance, banks, payment networks, and clearing institutions can review suspicious transactions during the fund transfer process and can suspend fund flows under certain circumstances.Third Eye CEO Tian Zeng stated that he hopes the settlement time can be shortened from the traditional financial T+1 day to T+1 hour, by appropriately extending the settlement time and increasing review steps, thereby reducing hackers' ability to quickly transfer funds.FalconX Co-Head of Markets Joshua Lim pointed out that as more institutions enter the cryptocurrency market, the client structure is changing, and some institutions are no longer willing to fully accept the risks associated with irreversible transactions. As the cryptocurrency industry further integrates with traditional finance, how to balance transaction efficiency, decentralization, and fund security will become a problem that the industry must face.

Analysis: After the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve's focus will shift to controlling inflation; if the conflict in Iran ends, there will be no need for another interest rate hike

Some observers of the Federal Reserve believe that Trump's strong opposition from voters in the midterm elections may alleviate the political pressure faced by Federal Reserve Chair Waller, allowing him to reduce political interference and focus on controlling inflation. Voters have listed the cost of living as one of their top concerns, fundamentally changing the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve.Since Trump's re-election in 2024, he has been exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve and its interest rate decisions, repeatedly calling for rate cuts, supporting an unprecedented criminal investigation into the renovation of the Federal Reserve's office building, and attempting to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor. Against this backdrop, Trump chose Waller to lead the Federal Reserve in May of this year, after Waller had unusually shifted to support rate cuts. This has raised concerns among Democrats, who fear that the new chair may have agreed to adjust monetary policy according to the president's wishes.Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, stated that in fact, if the election results prompt Trump to end the conflict with Iran and abandon further tariff increases, the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates again at all.

The Democratic Party has taken control of both houses, and global capital markets are generally warming up

As the Democratic Party secured control of both houses in the midterm elections, this news, which was previously expected to be bearish by the market, has largely settled. The decline in global mainstream capital markets has shown improvement, with some markets turning to an upward trend. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures narrowing their decline to 0.4%, having previously dropped over 2.2%. The S&P 500 index futures are currently down 0.43%, and the Dow futures are down 0.24%. Bitcoin rebounded, breaking through $78,000, currently reported at $78,006, while Ethereum also rebounded, breaking through $2,300, currently reported at $2,301.The Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index strengthened in the afternoon, with Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation leading the constituent stocks, and the Hang Seng Index is currently up 0.81%. The A-share Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose over 5% in the afternoon, the ChiNext Index rose over 4%, Northern Huachuang and Tuojing Technology rose over 10%, and several Sci-Tech semiconductor ETFs rose over 10%, with semiconductor equipment ETFs such as Guangfa reaching the daily limit. The South Korean KOSPI Index turned positive, erasing a previous decline of up to 4%. Spot gold's daily increase expanded to 1%, breaking through $3,970 per ounce, while spot silver rose over 2% during the day, currently reported at $50.79 per ounce.

JPMorgan Chase: The probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both houses is 66%, while the Republican Party maintaining control of both houses is most beneficial for the U.S. stock market

JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis on four potential congressional power combinations following the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the Republican Party's chance of retaining both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. In the scenario where the Democratic Party controls both chambers, the S&P 500 index could drop by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks.JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting the development of the AI industry is passed by Congress, it would be difficult to gather enough votes to override Trump's presidential veto. Therefore, it suggests that traders consider buying during pullbacks in tech stocks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields could face downward pressure. Some corporate executives associated with Trump's political donations may face greater risks of congressional investigations. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate is 26%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.5% to 1%. The market may welcome the legislative stalemate brought about by the distribution of power, leading to a potential decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, although some companies and their leaders may still face congressional inquiries.In the scenario where the Republican Party retains both chambers, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 1% to 1.25%. The market would not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and the additional policy pressures on tech companies would also be relatively limited; however, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and Trump may continue military actions against Iran. The probability of the Republican Party controlling the House and the Democratic Party controlling the Senate is 1%, with the S&P 500 index expected to rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. A split Congress could lead to more intense budget battles, potentially resulting in a federal government shutdown, and the Democratic Party could still conduct congressional investigations after gaining control of the Senate.
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