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Traders expect the S&P 500 index to experience the largest volatility on a non-farm payroll day since the regional banking crisis in March 2023

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, options traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate by 1.3% this Friday, which will be the largest fluctuation on a non-farm payroll data release day since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Citigroup data shows that the S&P 500 index is expected to have a two-way fluctuation of 1.4% on Wednesday, marking the highest implied volatility since the day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, 2023.The increase in market volatility is mainly influenced by two factors: the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Trump recently warned of potential future economic fluctuations and defended his plan to significantly raise tariffs, but U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo indicated that Trump is considering some tariff relief measures, which has slightly eased market sentiment.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at its highest level since December of last year, breaking through the 20-point mark. Economists expect that U.S. employment will increase by 160,000 in February, the unemployment rate will remain at 4%, and average hourly earnings will rise by 4.1% year-on-year. UBS equity derivatives strategist Grinkov stated, "Macroeconomic factors are becoming more important; this is a higher volatility environment."
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