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According to The Block, K33 stated in its latest report that the drop of Bitcoin approaching $60,000 last week may indicate a local bottom. This round of sell-off has shown "surrender conditions" in the spot, ETF, and derivatives markets, including extreme levels of trading volume, funding rates, and options skew.Some indicators show that Bitcoin's daily RSI has dropped to 15.9, the sixth lowest since 2015, only behind March 2020 and November 2018; the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 6, marking the second lowest point in history. K33 believes that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase in the range of $60,000 to $75,000, with reduced activity and a possibility of support retest, but the risk of a significant downward move below recent lows is limited.

At the "Build and Scale in 2026" themed forum recently held by ChainCatcher in Hong Kong, Spark co-founder Sam MacPherson delivered a keynote speech on "The Growth Engine of DeFi," systematically explaining how Spark builds an integrated solution to address the fragmentation and inefficiency of on-chain capital markets by integrating savings, lending, and institutional-level capital allocation.Sam MacPherson pointed out that the current on-chain capital market still faces challenges of severe fragmentation and low capital utilization efficiency. Spark builds its growth engine through three core products: first, the all-chain savings account Spark Savings, which has managed over $2.75 billion in deposits, providing users with a safe and stable income entry; second, the lending protocol SparkLend, which focuses on blue-chip assets and captures value by reducing external protocol commissions and protocol fees; third, institutional lending in collaboration with the Anchorage custodian, seeking risk-adjusted returns between DeFi, CeFi, and traditional finance.He believes that the next phase of DeFi's growth will rely on integrated protocols that can seamlessly integrate multi-chain liquidity, provide institutional-level risk control, and possess sustainable token economic models. Spark is promoting the evolution of DeFi towards a more efficient and robust direction through its product matrix and ecosystem development.

According to CoinDesk, based on limited historical trading activity and on-chain supply, the BTC price may further consolidate or retest lower ranges. Since the drop over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin has been confined between $70,000 and $79,999 for five consecutive days. Bitcoin has spent a total of about 35 days within this $10,000 price range, making it one of the shortest durations, indicating that the price tends to move quickly through this area rather than establishing sustained support or resistance.The price is more likely to consolidate within this range or move down again before establishing a more solid foundation. In April of last year, Bitcoin rebounded after spending only a few weeks below $80,000. Similarly, when it reached a high near $73,000 in March 2024, it spent a short time at that level before starting to decline. A notable example occurred in November 2024, when the price surged from about $68,000 to $100,000 within weeks, with almost no consolidation in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, made only one purchase within this price range. On November 11, 2024, the company acquired 27,200 BTC for approximately $2 billion, at an average price of $74,463. Data shows that there is a supply gap between $70,000 and $80,000, indicating that this area remains structurally weak.

According to Jin Ten, during the Asian trading session, the Singapore dollar against the US dollar maintained a sideways consolidation, but the prospect of the Federal Reserve possibly keeping high interest rates for a longer period may put it under pressure.Analysts from CIMB International Treasury and Market Research pointed out that, given inflation remains high, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Richmond Fed President Barkin have both signaled that further rate cuts may take longer.

Matrixport released the latest analysis indicating that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent consolidation is the "lack of narrative." Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive months. Despite several U.S. wealth management firms gradually opening allocation channels, the new channels have not brought in corresponding incremental funds, and the overall ETF funding situation remains weak.Matrixport believes that the marginal demand from traditional finance (TradFi) may have reached a phase of saturation. In terms of timing, July was the last significant net inflow window, after which the momentum of funds has continued to weaken. The report suggests that Bitcoin may need a "narrative reboot" or a new core pricing theme to form substantial support in terms of funds and expectations, and to re-attract TradFi capital back; the current trend is more likely a phase of correction rather than a long-term trend reversal.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating that it is expanding at a "robust" pace.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media, "Seeing some panic among Bitcoin holders (and the schadenfreude from bears) seems quite shortsighted to me. Since 2022, Bitcoin is up 429%, gold is up 177%, silver is up 350%, and QQQ is up 140%. In other words, Bitcoin's performance in 2023 and 2024 has left other assets far behind (but many seem to have forgotten this). Even if other assets later have 'the best year ever,' and Bitcoin is in a slump, they still haven't caught up to Bitcoin's performance. In my view, what is really happening is that the narrative of 'institutionalization' has been priced in by the market too early and too quickly, and this pricing was completed before it actually materialized. Therefore, Bitcoin needs a period of consolidation for reality to catch up with the previous price increases."

According to CoinDesk, the market shows that Bitcoin has fluctuated and consolidated after falling below $90,000. Analysts believe this decline aligns with the risk-averse sentiment in traditional markets, leading to an increase in risk aversion in the crypto market.Derivatives data shows that Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility (IV) rose to 44.34 on Tuesday, while the open interest (OI) in the past 24 hours fell by 3.25% to $28.3 billion, indicating that traders with short positions took profits during this period. However, the funding rate generally remained positive throughout the sell-off.Additionally, Zcash's open interest decreased by 2.5%, while its price rose by 1.5%, indicating that holders of short positions have begun to reduce their bearish exposure since January 8.

According to Caixin, a person familiar with the technology of digital renminbi revealed that the digital renminbi's smart contracts are based on an account system, and they are essentially "condition-triggered automatic execution code," similar to smart contracts on public chains, with the difference being whether they possess complete Turing completeness.The smart contracts of the digital renminbi, based on the account system, are considered restricted Turing complete. Their programming is strictly limited to the template scripts permitted by the central bank, supporting only preset, simple condition-triggered functions. This design is primarily for security and risk control considerations.The development of digital renminbi smart contracts supports multiple programming languages, including Ethereum's Solidity and other fully Turing complete languages, so technically there is no issue. However, the core challenge lies in how to design a standard access and auditing mechanism that can be accepted by the financial system.

The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that after Bitcoin rebounded from a low of nearly $80,800 in late November, it continues to test the key resistance zone of $93,500 to $95,000, with short-term price movements still constrained by factors such as inconsistent ETF fund flows.Currently, Bitcoin is entering a dense supply zone formed by buyers at recent highs, with a cost basis between $92,100 and $117,400. As the price returns to this area, holders looking to break even may increase selling pressure, creating significant resistance above or facing "profit-taking pressure," which may keep the market in a range-bound oscillation. The derivatives market reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment, characterized by a coexistence of long-term bullish positions and short-term bearish hedges.

The founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, posted on the X platform stating that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin has dried up. Due to the diversification of liquidity channels, timing the inflow of funds has lost its significance. Long-term holding institutions have ended the previous cycle of whale and retail sell-offs, and MicroStrategy has not sold any significant portion of its 673,000 BTC holdings. Funds have currently rotated into areas such as stocks.Ki Young Ju believes that Bitcoin will not drop more than 50% from its historical highs like in previous bear markets and will remain in a consolidation phase over the next few months.

Matrixport's latest charts and analysis indicate that after a large-scale deleveraging in the derivatives market, the crypto market may establish a more solid starting point for the 2026 rally.The analysis shows that since the peak in October 2025, the leverage corresponding to the open interest of BTC and ETH futures has been cleared by nearly $30 billion. Operating in a state of lighter positions and lower leverage in the new year will help the market return to a relatively balanced price rhythm. Matrixport believes that as crowded trades gradually recede and speculative overheating significantly cools, the price movements of Bitcoin and other crypto assets may align more closely with fundamental rhythms, potentially opening up upward space.

ChainCatcher news, according to the “RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report”, shows that 2025 will present a rhythm of "Q3 concentrated IPOs and Q4 merger explosions," reflecting the path of companies "first going public for financing, then integrating and expanding." In November, the monthly merger amount accounted for 59% of the annual total, mainly driven by the actions of giants like Naver acquiring Dunamu.The report indicates that the integration trend will continue in the first half of 2026, with industry leaders building moats through capital operations, while small and medium-sized projects face the harsh choice of "being acquired or being eliminated."

According to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of over $126,000 on October 6, it subsequently faced a $19 billion liquidation event, with the current trading price around $87,000. The market is divided on future trends, with 50T Funds founder Dan Tapiero believing the bull market is still in the "mid-stage," while Fidelity's research director predicts that Bitcoin may experience a "year of consolidation" in 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.Analysts point out that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is gradually evolving into a broader long-term trend driven by fundamental factors such as global liquidity and sovereign adoption. Currently, tracking data shows that most top traders hold a short-term bearish stance on mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Trader Banmuxia posted on social media, "Bitcoin has reached a point where it is no longer a very good long opportunity. The liquidity logic for the medium term has also been weakened by the recent continuous ETF sell-offs. This is not the best long opportunity, which does not mean it won't rise later, but the risks are increasing. During the adjustment phase, if the opportunity is not very high probability, there is no need to participate; just continue to observe the market's complex consolidation."

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb responded by stating that rating the "blockchain moat as 3/10" is simply absurd, and even Santi has never believed that blockchain "has no moat."Haseeb pointed out that Ethereum has maintained its dominance for 10 consecutive years, during which hundreds of competitors have raised over $10 billion in an attempt to capture the market. However, after enduring the challenges from all these challengers over the decade, Ethereum still remains at the top of the industry, which itself indicates the presence of a strong moat.Haseeb stated that if such achievements cannot be considered a moat, then the concept of a moat may be difficult to discuss.