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BIT released today's chart stating that the key to market analysis often lies in identifying the core factors driving asset price movements and observing when these factors begin to change.In the case of Bitcoin, the recent sustained rise has largely depended on the interplay between institutional demand and the market's available supply. Over the past year, spot Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have been significant sources of this demand. When ETF inflows accelerate and Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin typically continues to rise.Currently, the total net buying amount of ETFs and Strategy has dropped to only $870 million, primarily due to significant outflows from ETFs, shifting from net buying to net selling. Before ETF inflows stabilize and rebound, Bitcoin may continue to primarily experience consolidation in the short term.

Glassnode stated that Bitcoin has reclaimed the real market average at $78,300 but has failed to maintain a position above this level. Historical cycles suggest that several weeks to months of consolidation may be needed before confirming a credible bull market transition. The 30-day moving average has seen its risk-reward ratio rise from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. This indicator needs to remain above 2 to signal a true recovery of buyer strength.The 30-day cost baseline at $78,200 has shifted from a support level to an overhead resistance level, while the cost baseline of the accumulation group formed from February to April ($71,400) is currently the most direct support level in the ongoing pullback. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) remaining negative overall, and Coinbase activity continues to lag. This indicates that while there is sporadic offshore speculative demand, the participation of U.S. institutions in the spot market remains relatively weak.CME futures open interest has continued to rise alongside prices, indicating that while overall spot demand remains hesitant near the current range highs, institutional participation in the derivatives market is improving. The accumulation rate of U.S. spot ETFs has recently slowed, further indicating that positions are increasingly driven by futures activity. Implied volatility is rebounding from low levels, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, and the volatility risk premium has expanded, making the cost of hedging relatively manageable. Options positions remain defensive. The skew indicator shows a resurgence in demand for downside protection, while the negative gamma range around $75,000 makes spot prices susceptible to amplified hedging flows and increased price volatility.

The latest disclosed SEC documents show that as of March 31, 2026, Avenir Group holds 18,276,100 shares of BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin Spot ETF, with a position market value of approximately $702 million based on the quarter-end closing price, a slight decrease of about 0.061% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Since the second quarter of 2024, Avenir Group has maintained its position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin ETFs in Asia for eight consecutive quarters.Since 2026, Avenir Group has been continuously promoting the integration of TradFi and Crypto, including strategic investments in CoinRoutes, leading a $20 million seed round for Inference Research, and signing a cooperation MOU with Tiger Brokers, AMINA Bank, and CoinRoutes during Consensus Hong Kong 2026 to advance the construction of next-generation institutional trading infrastructure.

According to The Block, Bitcoin's market share has rebounded from a low of 55% to about 58.5%. This metric has historically been a barometer for capital rotation within the crypto market: an increase in market share typically accompanies a consolidation phase where Bitcoin outperforms altcoins, while a decrease often signals the arrival of altcoin season.In mid-2025, Bitcoin's market share peaked between 62% and 63%, then continued to decline to about 54%. The current rise to 58% suggests that the market may be in a consolidation phase rather than a full shift towards altcoins.Bitcoin's price has rebounded from a low of around $63,000 in February to about $80,000. Over the past month, TON, ZEC, and DOGE have performed relatively strongly, a pattern that previously indicated altcoin expansion when Bitcoin's market share began to decline. The key question is whether Bitcoin's market share is consolidating at the current level or continuing to decline.

Data shows that Bitcoin's market share has rebounded from a low of about 55% to approximately 58.5%, indicating that funds are concentrating back into Bitcoin. Bitcoin's market share is often seen as an important indicator for observing the rotation of funds in the cryptocurrency market. An increase in market share often means the market is entering a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin performing relatively better than altcoins; while a decrease in market share is usually accompanied by funds flowing into higher-risk assets, driving what is known as "altcoin season." In comparison, Bitcoin's market share reached a high of 62% to 63% in mid-2025, and then continued to decline against the backdrop of rising altcoin activity, once dropping to about 54%. The current rebound to above 58% suggests that the market is more likely in a consolidation phase rather than a full shift towards altcoin trends.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that after nearly a year of bipartisan cooperation, the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act) is set to enter the committee review stage this week, bringing the U.S. closer to "consolidating its global leadership in financial innovation." Lummis said, "Wyoming has been a pioneer in exploration, and now Washington is following suit."Previously, Republican members of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee announced that Committee Chairman Tim Scott, Lummis, and Thom Tillis have jointly released the text of the market structure bill. According to the statement, the bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for the digital asset industry, protect investors, combat illegal financial activities, and encourage innovation to remain in the U.S.

According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst August Hyldgaard stated in a report that Tuesday's U.S. consumer inflation data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. "If the data exceeds expectations on the upside, along with strong labor market data, it will keep the Federal Reserve in its current wait-and-see mode."

Trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that SOL is currently showing strong relative strength among mainstream crypto assets, with a more stable trend compared to ETH and HYPE, and is seen as the most likely mainstream token to break out of the three-month consolidation range first. Analysis indicates that if SOL effectively breaks through the key resistance level of $96, the next target range may look towards around $120, with a potential upside of about 25%. At the same time, he also believes that as long as BTC does not fall below $80,000, market risk appetite is expected to remain, and funds can be positioned in advance for the breakout trend.

ChainCatcher reported live that the Deputy Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of Hong Kong, Chan Ho Lam, delivered a keynote speech at the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival. He pointed out that Hong Kong has developed into the third global financial center index and the first international financial center in Asia, providing a solid foundation for Web3 innovation.He stated that the digital asset development policy declaration 2.0 released last year proposed the LEAP framework, which covers four pillars: optimizing legal regulation (L), expanding the variety of tokenized products (E), promoting application scenarios and cross-border cooperation (A), and developing talent and partnerships (P).He revealed that there are currently over 10 licensed trading platforms in Hong Kong, and the Monetary Authority has issued the first two stablecoin issuer licenses this month. The SAR government issued the third batch of tokenized green bonds last year, which is the largest scale globally, and is actively formulating regulatory systems for digital asset trading service providers and custodial service providers.

According to Jinshi reports, the Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, stated that the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid.

According to a report by AFP, Trump stated in a recent interview: "America has achieved a 'complete and total victory,' 100 percent, no doubt about it. There is already a solid framework in place for a long-term agreement. We have an agreement that includes 15 points, most of which have already been agreed upon.Any peace agreement will cover the issue of nuclear materials. Let's wait and see. Let's see if it can be reached." Trump refused to disclose whether he would restore the initial threat of destroying Iran's civilian power plants and bridges if the agreement falls apart.

According to Theblock, K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has mainly fluctuated between $60,000 and $75,000, indicating that the trading volume of exchange-traded products and the behavior of long-term holders are stabilizing. He described this price trend as "typically associated with market bottoms" and suggested that the price range just above $70,000 may be attractive to medium- to long-term investors.According to Lunde, since late February, the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs has slightly turned positive, indicating that the sell-off wave since the historical high in October may be coming to an end. He stated that the previous capital outflow was due to profit-taking when the Bitcoin price fell below the investors' cost price, creating a supply-demand feedback loop. However, as prices fell, the motivation to sell weakened, and demand began to stabilize.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a mysterious giant whale created 10 new wallets and withdrew 83,000 ETH ($178 million) and 1.62 million LINK ($14.8 million) from Binance and Bybit, then distributed these tokens to multiple wallets. However, these tokens were not recently purchased—this giant whale is likely reorganizing wallets through exchanges.It has been noted that multiple wallets deposited 83,000 ETH ($178 million) and 1.62 million LINK ($14.8 million) into a recharge address related to Flowdesk.

According to BBX data, yesterday global listed companies exhibited "high frequency and standardized" characteristics in expanding their crypto treasuries:Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: $SMLR): Yesterday, it used the ATM financing tool to acquire another 580 BTC, costing approximately $41.2 million. Its total holdings have now surpassed 1,500 BTC.Cosmos Health (NASDAQ: $COSM): The board passed a resolution to issue $20 million in special bonds for the purchase of BTC and ETH, accelerating the digitalization of its treasury through debt leverage.Solidion Technology (NASDAQ: $STI): Officially established financial guidelines to convert 60% of its redundant cash on the balance sheet into Bitcoin in batches, as a core strategy to hedge against the decline in fiat purchasing power.SOS Ltd (NYSE: $SOS): Confirmed that it has executed the first $15 million subscription of its $50 million Bitcoin and Ethereum investment plan, aiming to complete the entire allocation in the second quarter.Bit Digital (NASDAQ: $BTBT): Disclosed that it increased its holdings by 45 BTC yesterday through AI business profits, adhering to the endogenous growth logic of "business profits as reserves."

Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bloomberg has reaffirmed its prediction: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000------a price level not seen since mid-2020. Industry observers believe this prediction is overly absurd.However, on the largest crypto options trading platform Deribit, about $800 million in open positions are concentrated on $20,000 put options, betting that the price will fall below that level. This is the fourth most popular bearish bet on the platform. This indicates that some traders are preparing for a possible crash. But Deribit stated that not all positions are direct bets against a price crash.Deribit’s Global Retail Sales Head Sidrah Fariq said, "Most positions are more like selling put options rather than directional long hedges. Traders often sell out-of-the-money put options because the probability of reaching those levels is low." Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, maintaining around $70,000 even as crude oil prices rebounded, pushing benchmark oil prices close to $100 in the early session, shaking traditional markets. Ethereum, XRP, and SOL have also remained strong, while HYPE tokens rose about 10% within 24 hours.Analysts say that excessive leverage is being cleared from the Bitcoin market, paving the way for price increases. Diana Pires, Vice President of Sales at crypto platform sFOX, stated in an email, "From a market structure perspective, this consolidation could be constructive, as reducing leveraged positions often lays a more stable foundation for the next wave of movement once clearer macro catalysts emerge."

The infrastructure developer behind Optimism, OP Labs, announced the layoff of 20 employees, accounting for approximately 19.6% of the total team. Jing Wang, co-founder of Optimism and CEO of OP Labs, stated in an internal letter that the layoffs are not due to financial pressure, as the company currently has sufficient funds and years of cash flow reserves. This move aims to "streamline operations, accelerate decision-making, and reduce collaboration costs."Currently, Optimism is undergoing a transformation. Last month, Base, the largest chain in the OP Stack ecosystem, announced a shift to a self-developed unified tech stack, which raised market concerns about Optimism's long-term sustainability, leading to a roughly 37% drop in the price of OP tokens over the past 30 days. Despite the challenges, OP Labs has established a roadmap for 2026, focusing on faster block times, native interoperability, custom compliance controls, and a zero-knowledge proof (ZK Proof) system aligned with the Ethereum roadmap. Additionally, OP token holders had previously voted to allocate 50% of Superchain sequencer revenue for token buybacks.

According to Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the economic fundamentals are solid and the job market is stabilizing.

Solid Intel stated that Australia has granted a license for a "regulated digital dollar" on the XRP Ledger, which will allow banks to use a compliant Australian dollar stablecoin for on-chain transactions.Relevant information shows that the Australian dollar stablecoin AUDD (issued by AUDC) has previously received AFSL authorization from ASIC to provide non-cash payment facilities, and AUDD can be used across multiple chains such as XRPL.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin has long been touted as providing something that other markets cannot: a 24-hour real-time barometer of global risk appetite. However, after news of the U.S. strikes against Iran, Bitcoin initially fell, then fluctuated, and ultimately rose. By Monday, its trading price was above the level prior to the attack, leaving almost no lasting signs of panic or safe-haven seeking.This trend reflects deeper issues. After falling about 50% from its historical peak, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range of approximately $60,000 to $70,000. Since the collapse of the crypto market last October, most leverage has been forced out. Retail participation has decreased, and capital inflows have weakened. In the context of overall lighter positions, the subsequent impact of new shocks has also been smaller.