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Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost published an on-chain indicator interpretation on the X platform, analyzing the current profit and loss structure of Bitcoin positions in the market through the core economic indicator TMM (True Market Mean) and the AVIV ratio. The TMM indicator excludes long-term untransferred and partially permanently lost dormant Bitcoins, only accounting for the average holding cost of actively traded chips in the market, with the current value around $76,700. This level has become a significant price resistance, as during the May market, when the price reached this point, many investors exited to break even.The accompanying AVIV (Active Value / Investor Value) ratio currently hovers around 0.8, within the valuation discount range, indicating that the average floating loss for all active BTC investors is 20%. Historically, at the bottom of bear markets, this indicator has dropped to 0.5 to 0.6, corresponding to investor losses of 40%-50%. The current loss magnitude has not yet reached extreme bear market levels.The analyst also pointed out that even with a large influx of institutional funds and Bitcoin ETFs injecting massive liquidity in this cycle, Bitcoin still follows its own cyclical patterns. In the short term, there is no need to wait for the indicators to drop to historically extreme low levels before a rebound occurs, but it is necessary to acknowledge the current pressured environment of widespread losses among market participants.

Strategy Investor Relations Director Chaitanya Jain stated that STRC is gradually recovering after a brief fluctuation.He mentioned that the company's goal is to maintain STRC's long-term trading price in the range of $99 to $100, and it will support this through variable dividend rates, continuous increases in dollar reserves, improving Bitcoin ratings, removing convertible bonds, implementing stock buybacks, and functional upgrades.

According to Jinshi reports, the research report from CICC believes that since June, the market has begun a continuous adjustment, with the US dollar index breaking above the upper limit of the fluctuation range over the past year. The global capital markets are significantly influenced by AI prosperity and US dollar liquidity, leading to a general pullback, with style adjustments occurring within the US stock market. The research report reiterates that the Federal Reserve is "hawkish in name but dovish in reality" this year, and it is expected that the US dollar index may return to a weak fluctuation range, while physical assets, industrial sectors, and technology still maintain expansion potential.

According to Jinshi reports, Chris Turner from ING stated in a report that the euro against the dollar may continue its recent downward trend in the coming weeks, with an expected rebound later this year. He pointed out that although the decline in energy prices is a positive factor for the euro, the anticipated interest rate hikes in the U.S. will dominate the market. If the market reflects expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike, the euro may attempt to fall below 1.13 dollars. Turner expects that based on current judgments, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, and the euro will return to the range of 1.16 to 1.18 dollars in November or December.

According to Jinshi reports, Chris Turner of ING stated in a report that if Federal Reserve Chairman Waller focuses on price stability during his speech at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, the dollar should remain strong. Waller emphasized the necessity of bringing the inflation rate back to the 2% target during his first meeting after taking office as Federal Reserve Chairman in June. Turner expects that, influenced by Waller's speech, the dollar index may rise to the range of 101.7-101.8.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

According to Jinshi reports, Neuberger portfolio manager Joseph Purtell stated that in the short term, the dollar may continue to strengthen due to rising real interest rates in the United States. He believes the dollar is likely to break through the range of the past six to nine months, but added that in the long term, considering structural issues such as the sustainability of U.S. government finances, the dollar may weaken.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction event "Dota 2 Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine European Qualifiers" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Both Defeat Roshan" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in win rate, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss (90-day MA) has been negative for the fifth consecutive month, with the current reading at -203.2 million USD. This means the market is systematically locking in losses, consistent with the early stages of past bear market cycles.However, the cost basis of the holder group shows that the core support is in the range of 48,000-56,000 USD. From the cost basis of various groups, whales (over 10,000 coins) are at 48,100 USD, small addresses (10-100 coins) are at 47,800 USD, and large wallets (1,000-10,000 coins) are at 56,500 USD, all still below the current price. Only the 100-1,000 coin group (65,700 USD) is in a loss position, which is the main source of current loss selling.Adler pointed out that this contrasts with the complete capitulation in 2022, when almost all groups fell below their cost basis. The current market shows a controllable decline rather than a capitulation pattern, with the main risk being a breakdown of the 48,000-56,000 USD support range. If this range is lost, it will push more holders into losses, opening up deeper downward space.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that the current mNAV of Strategy has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 set during the last bear market in May 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as the decoupling of STRC, it is judged that we are currently in the bottom area of the mNAV for this cycle. mNAV often leads BTC prices to bottom out by about 6 months, and based on the "four-year cycle" and the decreasing volatility model, this round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. Jiang Zhuoer indicated that his recent short-term strategy remains focused on selling spot and shorting, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as a "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range. Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure.Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range. Analysts point out that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has strengthened the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the DXY from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it will typically trigger trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index; a stronger dollar usually suppresses risk assets priced in dollars. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic of dollar support and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin, seen as the "rival" to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is facing ongoing pressure as the market focuses on the imminent breakout of the Dollar Index from a 13-month trading range.Data shows that Bitcoin has weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around $63,900, with the overall cryptocurrency market also under pressure. Meanwhile, the DXY rose 0.26% to 100.66, continuing the previous trading day's increase of 0.8%, and is nearing the edge of a key breakout range.Analysis indicates that if this structural breakout is confirmed, it typically triggers trend-following funds to further boost the dollar's performance. Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between Bitcoin and the Dollar Index, with a stronger dollar usually exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets. The market believes that the Fed's hawkish stance has reinforced the logic supporting the dollar and may further drive funds towards safe-haven assets and dollar-denominated assets.

Trader Ansem posted that Warsh and the hawkish FOMC may put pressure on risk assets, expecting that risk assets will generally decline, while BTC has shown relative weakness compared to most assets. He believes that BTC's failure to break through the weekly resistance across multiple time frames may lead to another test of the range's low point.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR) entered the red zone for the first time when BTC dropped to $60,000, with the volume of losses exceeding the volume of profits, reflecting the deep pressure on holders. Historically, when this indicator enters the red zone, it often coincides with the formation of a bottom.Meanwhile, the CVDD valuation model shows that the structural bottom is around $48,300, a level that has almost never been closed below in Bitcoin's history. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to $66,000, and the smoothed SSRR has begun to turn upward. Analysts believe that $60,000 is a behavioral pressure zone, while $48,000 is the boundary for structural risk. The subsequent confirmation of recovery signals is when the smoothed SSRR exits the red zone and the price stabilizes above $60,000; the main risk is the emergence of new red signals at lower levels and testing the $48,000 support. Overall, the market is gradually shifting towards an accumulation pattern.

Glassnode published an analysis on platform X indicating that its cumulative trend score metric shows that after Bitcoin's price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has clearly shifted towards accumulation.This metric measures the intensity of accumulation behavior on-chain by combining holding size and recent balance changes, with a value close to 1 representing widespread accumulation and a value close to 0 indicating ongoing distribution.

According to analyst Killa's monitoring, this week the BTC range of $67,200 to $68,500 is a key observation area. The current cycle still has several months left, and market fluctuations are a reasonable expectation.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that Bitcoin is about to break through. Currently, attention is focused on the symmetrical triangle structure forming for BTC, with resistance at $63,000 and support at $61,000. This range will determine the direction of the next move. If BTC effectively closes outside this range on the hourly chart, a price expansion of about 10% may be triggered as momentum is released. It is essential to closely monitor the volume changes near the boundaries of this range to capture early signals of a sustained breakout.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV is currently 1.1, which is close to the historically significant undervaluation range marking major market bottoms.If the price further dips to the low of $50,000, the MVRV may reach the fully undervalued level of 1. Historical data shows that this level appeared at the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time became the starting point for a strong medium to long-term rebound.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted an analysis of the recent Bitcoin price trend on the X platform, noting that the current Bitcoin price is in the $62,000 range, having dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a decline of 24% over the past month. The price has crossed the upper range of its pricing framework, entering a valuation cluster area where historical cycles have previously shown bottoms.Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be defined through probability ranges and key price levels to identify potential bottom signals. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022, currently situated within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average price is around $61,700.The current high-probability bottom range may be between $46,000 and $54,000, with a rare "sell-off tail" below that range of $35,000 to $40,000. It is important to note that the magnitude of cyclical pullbacks is gradually decreasing: previous rounds of lows saw declines of about 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only dropped about 50%, indicating that a high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper range, though extreme sell-off possibilities cannot be ruled out.