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According to information from a third-party data platform, Bitcoin's Ahr999 has once again fallen below 0.45 after a month, reporting at 0.4322. As a result, this indicator has returned to the "bottom-buying range." This indicator was created by ahr999 and aims to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the yield of short-term Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation.Historically, the Ahr999 index for Bitcoin has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 572 days. The dollar-cost averaging range is 0.45-1.2, representing a relatively reasonable range for Bitcoin prices, suitable for adhering to a regular investment strategy.

Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.5%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach a historic high, alleviating inflationary pressures driven by energy.However, consumer-level concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation.The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that "if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur," and the market has not fully priced in the hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported "explosive" earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback and a 25-fold increase in dividends.More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reacted unusually coldly, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfect pricing" phase, where simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to drive the market.This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will re-dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged. BTC hovers around $76,000, and ETH has fallen to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets.In the past two weeks, over $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, with institutional funds noticeably cooling, and marginal risk appetite has shifted back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, hitting a new 10-month low, while the few assets that have remained strong against the trend are HYPE, which saw a single-day ETF inflow record of $25.5 million and signs of large institutional wallets continuously accumulating.The current market structure has not completely deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the capital flow that determines short-term prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if it falls below this range, the market may quickly test the $70,000 to $72,000 area; if it holds, there is still a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

According to Caixin, in response to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's investigation into Changqiao Securities and the proposed administrative penalties, Changqiao Securities stated that its licensed entities are regulated by overseas regulatory agencies such as the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.Changqiao emphasized that customer funds are completely separated from the company's operating funds and are stored in independent custody bank accounts as required by regulations; the U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks held are respectively custodied by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) and Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited (HKSCC), and are protected by the Hong Kong Investor Compensation Fund (ICF). At the same time, the company will strictly implement all rectification requirements and legally and compliantly promote relevant arrangements.

According to SoSoValue data, the overall cryptocurrency market is showing a narrow fluctuation trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 0.38%, maintaining around $78,000 for several days; Ethereum (ETH) down 0.41%, consolidating above $2,100. The RWA sector performed outstandingly, rising 2.12% in 24 hours, with Centrifuge (CFG) up 6.98%, Plume (PLUME) up 16.85%, and Ondo Finance (ONDO) up 3.24%.In other sectors, the Layer2 sector rose 0.76%, with Celestia (TIA) up 4.45%; the DeFi sector rose 0.71%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE) up 2.07%, breaking through $62 during the session, creating a historical high; the Layer1 sector rose 0.71%, with NEAR Protocol (NEAR) up 17.83%; the CeFi sector rose 0.65%, with FTX (FTT) up 1.16%; the Meme sector rose 0.42%, with SPX6900 (SPX) up 2.86%; the PayFi sector fell 0.88%, with Safe (SAFE) up 11.85%.The cryptocurrency sector index reflecting historical market trends shows that the ssiCeFi, ssiLayer2, and ssiLayer1 indices rose by 0.77%, 0.64%, and 0.51%, respectively.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that market participants expect little change in the target range for the federal funds rate this year. The implied probability of a rate hike in the first quarter of 2027 based on option prices is about 30%. Surveys show that there will be two rate cuts of 25 basis points in the next year, with the timing of the cuts expected to be later than in the last survey, occurring in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, respectively.

According to The Block, crypto market maker Wintermute has launched the DeFi vault curation platform Armitage, designed for non-custodial vaults catering to different risk appetites, to access decentralized lending opportunities. Wintermute stated that, relying on its market-making business and clearing execution capabilities, Armitage can accept "collateral types that other curators cannot support." The announcement mentioned that user deposits do not require KYC, and users retain control over their funds. As institutions continue to engage in vault strategies like Morpho on Ethereum and Kamino on Solana, vaults are becoming an important tool for institutional participation in the crypto market.

Wintermute released a market outlook indicating that the cryptocurrency market has come under significant pressure this week due to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S. and a reversal in interest rate expectations. Bitcoin failed to break through the 200-day moving average when it first encountered a major macro shock, showing that the previous rally was driven more by short covering rather than sustained inflows of new capital.The market environment has clearly changed, with U.S. CPI growth accelerating, core inflation exceeding expectations, and real wages turning negative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.58%, while a new Fed chair with a more hawkish stance will take office in three weeks. The market's pricing of the Fed's policy path has also changed rapidly, shifting from betting on rate cuts to concerns about further rate hikes within just five trading days.Cross-asset performance also reflects this change: Brent crude oil rose 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 5.7% and 10.2%, respectively. Capital is flowing into assets that drive inflation, while cryptocurrencies have performed even weaker than the stock market during the downturn, a relative weakness that is considered a cause for concern.Despite the long-term structural positives still in place, including Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remaining at multi-year lows, long-term holders continuing to accumulate, and the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory bill "CLARITY," institutional capital is more inclined to take profits on rebounds in the short term rather than continue to increase positions. The market is currently focused on the $76,000 to $78,000 range for Bitcoin; if it can hold this position after Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, market confidence may recover. However, if it falls below $75,000, along with a decline in funding rates and continued outflows from ETFs, it could quickly drop to the $70,000 range.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), the whale address 0x54d...e6029 purchased 5,001 ETH (approximately $10.6 million) through Cowswap in the past 2 hours, at an average price of $2,119.29.This address previously built a position at the low on March 30 and subsequently took profits at a high, accumulating over $1.085 million in profits during this round.

The co-founder of the Solana ecosystem DeFi project Ranger Finance, cobra (@barrett_io), posted on the X platform that Ranger Finance is gradually shutting down. The project took on business beyond its sustainable capacity, and the founder invested personal funds to maintain operations, but delays in financing led to the accumulation of bills. Ultimately, the financing was unsuccessful, and the raised funds were returned.The team is trying to fairly pay employees and suppliers with the remaining two months of operating funds, but it is insufficient to cover all expenses. The treasury liquidation was unexpected and severely impacted budget decisions. Subsequently, the Drift attack incident depleted the remaining funds and personal capital. Treasury users affected by the Drift attack will receive recovery tokens when distributed by the Drift team. The founder stated that in hindsight, the project should have been shut down earlier and apologized for this.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

Trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that SOL is currently showing strong relative strength among mainstream crypto assets, with a more stable trend compared to ETH and HYPE, and is seen as the most likely mainstream token to break out of the three-month consolidation range first. Analysis indicates that if SOL effectively breaks through the key resistance level of $96, the next target range may look towards around $120, with a potential upside of about 25%. At the same time, he also believes that as long as BTC does not fall below $80,000, market risk appetite is expected to remain, and funds can be positioned in advance for the breakout trend.

According to QCP analysis, this week is packed with macro events, and the market focus is on three main lines: first, Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing this week, with topics covering tariffs, rare earth supply chains, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is concerned about whether substantial progress can be made in trade; second, the April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released successively. If inflation stabilizes, real yields are expected to decline, historically providing support for the crypto market; conversely, it will strengthen tightening expectations; third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the CLARITY Act, and legislative progress may further drive institutional funds into the market.Currently, despite BTC facing ETF fund outflows last week, it has still maintained the $80,000 level. Crypto volatility remains at a low for the year, with the VIX around 18. In the short term, BTC is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with $84,000 as a key resistance level.

According to sources, due to rising market demand, Cerebras plans to raise the IPO price range to $150 to $160 per share.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that a rate cut exceeding a reasonable range will raise inflation.

The Bitget Launchpool project KAIO is now open for investment. As of the time of publication, the USDGO locked pool yield is 47.32% APR, the BGB locked pool yield is 121.25% APR, and the KAIO locked pool yield is 6,849.64% APR.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a certain whale deposited 3.117 million USDC into HyperLiquid after being silent for 6 months and placed an order to open a short position on ETH in the range of 2530 to 2670 dollars.

Bitcoin mining company and energy infrastructure platform Hut 8 announced that its subsidiary has reached a $200 million Bitcoin collateralized credit agreement with FalconX, replacing the previous financing arrangement from Coinbase Credit. The new financing has an annual fixed interest rate of 7.0%, a decrease of 200 basis points from the previous 9.0% financing from Coinbase; during the period from December 2023 to March 2025, the financing cost was as high as 10.5%–11.5%, with a cumulative reduction of up to 450 basis points, demonstrating progress in continuously optimizing debt costs.After this refinancing, Hut 8 has approximately 3,300 BTC converted to an uncollateralized state, valued at about $260 million based on the market value as of May 1, 2026, significantly enhancing its balance sheet flexibility and liquidity. Meanwhile, the credit structure maintains key risk control terms, including a limited recourse structure, a no-rehypothecation clause, and a fixed LTV threshold design, preventing additional margin calls triggered by a decline in Bitcoin prices.Hut 8's management stated that this financing not only reduces financing costs but also releases more uncollateralized Bitcoin assets, helping to enhance capital allocation flexibility across different market cycles; FalconX emphasized that this transaction reflects its ongoing expansion capabilities in institutional-level Bitcoin credit solutions.

Nic Puckrin, co-founder and CEO of Coin Bureau, posted on the X platform that Bitcoin has surpassed the $80,000 mark, reaching a nearly three-month high, and has re-entered several key technical and on-chain indicator ranges, including the CME gap (between $79,000 and $84,000) midpoint, bull market support zone, and has risen above the short-term holder realized price and the true market average.Nic Puckrin analyzed that if the Bitcoin price can stabilize in the current range, the next levels to watch include the ETF average cost range around $83,000 and the upper edge of the CME gap around $84,500. Overall, Bitcoin's short-term trend has entered a critical verification phase, and the market may welcome a more volatile trading window.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform, stating that the adjusted realized price range model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply shows that this round of Bitcoin falling to the key range of $59,000 marks the beginning of a true medium to long-term bottoming process. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed in one to two weeks; the baseline scenario is expected to take about six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has seen some recent increases, the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand. This means that the bottom may only be truly established when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying continues to recover.