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The price of Bitcoin continues to be pressured below $72,000, and four on-chain data points indicate weakening market demand, putting short-term upward potential under pressure: 1. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is close to zero, indicating that large holders are reducing or stopping their accumulation of BTC. This trend is similar to early 2025 when the price of Bitcoin fell to $74,500. Small to medium-sized holding entities (less than 1,000 BTC) are also showing a "distribution or inactive" state.Santiment points out that Bitcoin whale activity is "historically low," with only 6,417 transactions exceeding $100,000 last week, and transactions over $1 million dropping to 1,485, the lowest level since October 2024. Analysts say that smart money is taking a cautious wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and the war outlook.CryptoQuant's network activity index has been declining since August 2025, reflecting a decrease in overall on-chain demand. The fundamental indicators from Bitcoin Vector also show weak network liquidity and growth, with market conditions described as "stably lacking support." Short-term increases rely more on capital flow, short covering, or external catalysts rather than natural growth.Bitcoin's hash rate has significantly decreased to 813 EH/s over the past few weeks, down 22% from 1.2 ZH/s on March 5. Rising energy costs and geopolitical conflicts have led to hash rate earnings of less than $34 per PH/s/day, with most miners facing losses. Token Metrics analysts warn that if the difficulty drops more than 5% within a week, the exit of miners may accelerate, potentially increasing spot selling pressure further.

Greeks.live posted an analysis on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound at $71,000, with the crisis of decline temporarily alleviated. The implied volatility (IV) across various major maturities has shown a significant decline, with mid to short-term IV dropping over 5% from its peak and more than 3% compared to two days ago. Ethereum's mid to short-term IV has decreased over 8% from its peak and more than 5% compared to two days ago.Skew has fully rebounded, with many put options established during the crisis being closed out, restoring a balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration, with over 40% of options expiring, and the most concentrated strike at $75,000 remains a strong resistance level. (Note: Skew typically refers to the difference in implied volatility of options with different strike prices; an upward movement in this indicator usually indicates a warming market risk appetite and an increase in bullish sentiment.)

According to the Iranian SNN news agency, Iranian Navy Commander Irani stated that the U.S. aircraft carrier strike group "Lincoln" is under continuous surveillance by Iran, and once it enters the range of the missile system, it will become a target for attack.

The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of Hong Kong, Xu Zhengyu, introduced the development of stablecoins and digital renminbi in Hong Kong, stating:The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are working closely together to optimize the arrangements for digital renminbi. Currently, the number of mainland operating institutions responsible for operating digital wallets has increased from four to five, while the number of local Hong Kong banks participating in the "Faster Payment System" for digital wallets has increased from 17 to 18. The number and usage of digital wallets opened with Hong Kong mobile numbers have shown stable growth.According to the People's Bank of China, as of the end of January 2026, approximately 80,000 digital wallets have been registered. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and local banks have been actively promoting the application of digital renminbi in Hong Kong. Currently, the number of local merchant retail points accepting digital renminbi has increased from about 300 to approximately 5,200, covering chain retail stores, hotels, travel agencies, restaurants, convenience stores, and supermarkets.The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are exploring the arrangements and feasibility for upgrading digital wallets to increase their usage limits, expand application scenarios, and enhance user experience. As the policies and technical details involved still require in-depth discussion, specific plans and timelines are yet to be finalized.Stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (such as digital renminbi), as well as other new payment tools, including tokenized deposits and cross-border connections for rapid payment systems, have the potential to be applied in transaction settlements, local or cross-border payments, and other scenarios, provided they comply with relevant legal and regulatory requirements.These payment tools each have their own characteristics and varying degrees of maturity, and their future development prospects are largely determined by market forces. The government and financial regulatory agencies will continue to explore the potential and application scenarios of various new payment tools, better leveraging their synergies to address more pain points in the real economy.

According to market news, influenced by the U.S. suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, the geopolitical risk premium has decreased, leading to a drop in Brent crude oil prices, while Bitcoin has regained the $70,000 mark yesterday.Market analysis indicates that if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and oil prices stabilize around $100, Bitcoin is expected to test the resistance range of $74,000 to $76,000; if the situation worsens again, Bitcoin may fall back to the $65,000 range. If the easing continues, institutional buying on dips could push Bitcoin up to $80,000. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot showed that 14 officials expect zero or only one rate cut in 2026, indicating that the macro environment still poses restrictions on risk assets.As of the week of March 22, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $708 million in a single day, the largest in two months, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a record weekly inflow of $160.8 million. The performance gap between Bitcoin and gold has significantly narrowed, with gold experiencing its largest weekly decline since 1983 last week, dropping over 10%.

Macquarie's global energy strategist Vikas Dwivedi and his team stated in a report that even if tensions may ease (referring specifically to Trump's statement on Monday), oil prices are expected to bottom out at $85 to $90 per barrel and will soon naturally rebound to the $110 range until the Strait of Hormuz fully resumes navigation.If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent crude prices could still rise to $150 per barrel by the end of April, while refined oil prices are expected to be 200% higher than pre-war levels.The total amount of oil transported through the strait is expected to be 1.5 million barrels per day, far below the normal level of 15 million barrels per day, indicating a daily supply gap of 13.5 million barrels.

CoinGlass stated, "During yesterday's decline, Bitcoin's open interest (OI) actually increased as the price fell, indicating that shorts were clearly adding positions, forming a relatively clean short position buildup. This wave of movement ultimately touched around $68,750.Currently, the price has rebounded, but OI has shown almost no significant change, which usually means this rebound is not driven by new longs. Therefore, it currently resembles range-bound fluctuations rather than a clear trend reversal. Moving forward, it is important to focus on the changes in Bitcoin's price and OI."

According to the official announcement, Bitget has launched the U-based KAT perpetual contract, with a leverage range of 1-20 times. The contract trading BOT will also be opened simultaneously.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the policy interest rate is currently at the high end of the neutral range, slightly tightening, and is on the edge of tightening and not tightening.

According to Cointelegraph, influenced by the unexpected U.S. inflation data, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $72,000.Data shows that the U.S. February PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations, continuing the recent upward trend in inflation. The data was released just hours before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and although the market generally expects no rate adjustment this time, market fluctuations still depend on Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and policy guidance.Singapore trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that macro factors remain the dominant variable in the current market. As rising oil prices weaken rate cut expectations, the interest rate environment's support for the crypto market is diminishing. Currently, traders are generally turning cautious. Analyst Jelle stated that Bitcoin is still hindered below a key resistance level, and it is "safer to remain cautious" before the FOMC meeting, warning of the risk of breaking below support. Some opinions even suggest that the market is still in a bear phase.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

On-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, the sentiment among derivatives market traders has clearly shifted to bullish. However, if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, it may encounter resistance in the range of $75,000 to $85,000.CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that there has been a significant increase in long positions in the perpetual contract market recently, indicating that traders generally expect there is still upward potential for prices in the short term. As Bitcoin broke through $70,000, a large number of short positions were liquidated, while new long positions continued to build above $73,000. At the same time, the funding rate also shows a change in market sentiment. The Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate remained "extremely negative" before March 13, but has turned generally positive since March 15, indicating that traders are willing to pay fees to maintain long positions. The Ethereum funding rate has also mostly remained positive since March 9. However, CryptoQuant noted that if Bitcoin continues to rise, it may first encounter resistance around $75,000, which corresponds to the lower bound of the "Traders' On-chain Realized Price." The next important resistance range is around $85,000, a level that has previously served as price resistance during the rallies in October 2025 and January of this year.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2 AM this Thursday. Currently, the futures market shows a 99% probability of no change, while next month's interest rate meeting decision is believed to have a 97% probability of remaining unchanged. The Federal Reserve's impact on the market in the past two months has likely been relatively limited.Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 74,000, and the greed index is neutral: 1. Hawkish signal: If the dot plot shows only 1 or even 0 rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC will most likely retest the support level of 68,000 USD. 2. Dovish surprise: As long as Powell mentions "inflation is controllable" or "focus on the labor market," improved liquidity expectations will directly impact the 800,000 USD threshold. 3. X variable: Kevin Warsh, the quasi-new chair nominated by Trump, has policy preferences that are harder to grasp than Powell's. The market fears the "policy vacuum period" or "hawkish transition." Before the April meeting, institutional funds may choose to hedge and sell off, leading to significant volatility in altcoins.

PayPal announced that it has expanded the wallet holding range of its stablecoin PYUSD to an additional 68 countries and regions, increasing the total number of markets to 70, a significant expansion from the previous limitation to the United States and the United Kingdom. The new markets include Uganda, Colombia, Peru, and more, covering additional areas in South America, Africa, and Asia.

According to the official announcement, Bitget has launched the U-based CFG perpetual contract, with a leverage range of 1-20 times. The contract trading BOT will be opened simultaneously.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has stabilized above the $70,000 mark ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with market momentum showing a clear rebound.Although the price has not yet broken through the current range high, the recent net inflow of funds into spot ETFs over four consecutive trading days and ongoing spot buying indicate that institutional investors are continuously accumulating within the range. The market is transitioning from a previously liquidation-driven volatility phase to a more robust "absorption" structure.On-chain and derivatives data also show an improvement in market structure, with funding rates remaining neutral and open interest gradually rising. Data indicates that around $72,500 had previously accumulated the highest short liquidation positions of approximately $2.4 billion. Once the price breaks through key resistance, it may trigger further upward momentum. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices up, the market generally believes that inflationary pressures may rise further in the coming months, which will continue to affect the liquidity environment of global financial markets, including crypto assets.

Bitcoin News posted on the X platform that after a nearly 50% drop since October, several historical indicators suggest that the BTC sell-off may be entering its final stage. The MVRV Z Score has dropped to about 0.38, a level that previously indicated undervaluation.Other key support levels include the realized price around $54,000 and the 200-week moving average around $58,000. Bloomberg points out that the potential bottom range is between $45,000 and $55,000, but a sustained recovery requires new demand support. In the past month, inflows into spot BTC ETFs have exceeded $1.6 billion, driven by funds such as BlackRock's IBIT and VanEck's HODL.

According to Bitcoin News, well-known macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen stated that after noticing that asset performance during financial stress was not as expected, he sold most of his BTC at around $95,000 to $96,000.In an interview with Danny Knowles, Luke Gromen mentioned that BTC has failed to respond to the increase in money supply and has remained basically flat in performance relative to gold for five years.

According to on-chain data monitoring, Majidage Huang Licheng has once again increased his 25x leveraged Ethereum long position this morning, with the position now expanded to 8,500 ETH, and the current floating profit is about $70,000, with a liquidation price of approximately $2,038. In addition, he has currently placed 31 limit sell orders in the $2,117-$2,300 range.

According to the official announcement, Bitget has launched the Chinese contract trading pair "Lobster" for the first time, with a leverage range of 1-10 times. The contract trading BOT will also be opened simultaneously.