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Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.

Analyst Killa posted on platform X, stating plans to hedge 50% of his Bitcoin exposure in the range of $89,000 to $94,000, marking his first short position in months.Killa mentioned that, as he stated 1 to 3 days ago, he previously had no intention to short the same high point that continued to consolidate below him; if the price stabilizes above $97,000, this hedging strategy will become ineffective.

According to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin returns to the $80,000 mark, venture capitalist Jason Calacanis wrote a "eulogy" for Bitcoin, stating that "Bitcoin is like CDs in the Spotify era and DVDs in the Netflix era," and that "the dead cat is still bouncing."He further pointed out that Bitcoin is not outstanding in trading and smart contracts, the user experience is daunting, and it no longer sparks the public's imagination; "If Bitcoin were to achieve mass adoption and significant use cases, it would have done so long ago."Calacanis also joked that people expect Bitcoin to remain stable, and it is no longer a quick way to get rich, saying, "It's boring... advocates have transformed from pirates to suit-wearing individuals with orange ties, awkwardly sharing cringeworthy memes."In response, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor stated, "You have watched Bitcoin grow since 2011; it is now a $1.6 trillion success and the most valuable digital asset in the world." He expressed that "digital capital is a killer application, and preserving wealth across generations is a grander ambition than pleasing dinner guests," and emphasized that "the orange tie will not come off."

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers," the option "Boston Red Sox" in the sub-market "1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 32% an hour ago to the current 49.5% (a fluctuation of 17.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Bitget announced an upgrade to its Proof of Reserves (PoR) system, expanding the covered assets from the original 4 cryptocurrencies to 19 major assets, including new tokens such as XAUT, SOL, BNB, and USDGO. This upgrade also expands the scope of platform-level reserve disclosures and personal asset proof verifications. Users can view the reserve ratios, scales, and on-chain distributions of various assets through the PoR page, and independently verify whether their personal holdings are included in the reserve snapshot using a Merkle Tree.Since December 2022, Bitget has been releasing monthly reserve reports, and by August 2026, it has released 45 issues consecutively, with the latest overall reserve ratio at 122%. Bitget CEO Gracy stated that as the variety of assets supported by the platform continues to increase, the transparency and verification capabilities of the reserves also need to be expanded simultaneously, allowing more users to independently verify their asset situations and further enhance the platform's transparency.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the "Over" option in the sub-market "O/U 8.5" for the event "Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations in win probability, soaring from 38.5% an hour ago to the current 76% (a fluctuation of 37.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to the latest stock derivatives exchange ranking by RootData, among the top 20 exchanges, the three with the smallest weighted depth (±2%) are OrangeX, KuCoin, and Extended, with values of $32,700, $124,400, and $132,400 respectively. The comprehensive ranking leader Binance has a weighted depth of approximately $13,282,600.It is reported that this weighted depth is the ±2% depth weighted by the 24-hour trading volume.

The Standard Reserve, self-proclaimed as the "On-Chain Central Bank," will launch on September 14 and announce the genesis minting arrangements. The whitelist minting window for Genesis Charters is from 5:30 PM to 8:30 PM Eastern Time (from 5:30 AM to 10:30 AM Beijing Time on September 15), with a liquidity fee of 0.15 ETH; after this period, the remaining Genesis Charters will enter a 30-minute descending Dutch auction mode, starting at a price of 1.25 ETH, with a minimum price of 0.15 ETH. 100% of the minting proceeds will go into initial liquidity and the protocol treasury, with no profit-sharing for the team.After the minting ends, the official will inject liquidity and open trading for the STANDARD token, with a temporary anti-sniping tax set for the first hour, starting at 90% and decaying exponentially, with most of it decaying in the first 5 minutes, and the tax fees going into the protocol; after 1 hour, regular trading fees will resume. At the same time trading opens, Charter emissions will be initiated, and 100 branch licenses will be auctioned (paid in STANDARD, via Dutch auction).

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have risen to 693,000 coins, reaching a two-year high, an increase of about 77,000 coins since the end of April, accounting for approximately 30% of the total Bitcoin reserves on major trading platforms.As the reserve continues to climb, Bitcoin faces strong supply pressure in the range of $83,000 to $85,000.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks," the sub-market "Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" option "Texas Rangers" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 27.5% an hour ago to the current 91.5% (a fluctuation of 64%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Blockworks research analyst Shaunda Devens stated that the annual revenue of the Solana-based meme coin issuance platform PumpFun reaches $677 million, with the lowest weekly revenue fluctuations among the top ten protocols. The platform combines launchpad and DEX infrastructure while expanding the consumer layer, with daily trading volume on mobile and Terminal's front end increasing 5.6 times since early July. Cumulative revenue since 2024 has reached $1.37 billion, making it the second highest revenue-generating application this year after excluding stablecoin issuers, only behind Hyperliquid.Devens noted that PUMP is currently trading at a 2.8 times price-to-sales ratio, with its valuation range for PUMP between $0.0108 and $0.0205, equivalent to 2.3 to 4.4 times the current price. The programmatic buyback funded by 50% of revenue absorbs approximately 17.6% of the circulating supply at the current price, with about 77% of allocated insider tokens still unmoved. She mentioned that the team has a treasury of approximately $2 billion.She also stated that 96% of the revenue comes from tokens with a market cap of less than $1 million, with revenue priced in SOL at historical highs. PumpFun accounts for about 70% of the trading volume of Solana meme coins. The revenue for the second quarter was $85.2 million, with a run rate of $125.4 million in the third quarter, representing a 47% quarter-over-quarter growth, with the launchpad contributing $87.1 million and PumpSwap contributing $38.3 million. Daily active users on mobile increased from 5,600 to 34,100.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners" on Polymarket, the "Texas Rangers" option in the sub-market "Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 78% an hour ago to the current 19.5% (a fluctuation of 58.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Analyst Killa pointed out that many people always focus on the "imbalance zone," "weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap)," or low trading volume areas within specific price ranges. While there is indeed reason to pay attention to the imbalance zones, in a bull market, the imbalance zones formed by strong upward trends are mostly not fully retraced. In fact, historical data shows that explosive upward K-lines at the bottom often remain unfilled.Killa believes that BTC is unlikely to retest its $62,600 double long entry point, nor does he expect it to return to the publicly shared average spot entry cost of $65,800. The absolute worst-case scenario may only see some form of capitulation near $70,000. It is more likely to hold in the $73,000 to $75,000 range, and then initiate a new round of upward movement, targeting $85,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator measures the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain its position in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by continuous profit realization from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit margin of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator is used to measure the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by short-term holders continuously realizing profits.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers," the sub-market option "Tampa Bay Rays" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 58.5% an hour ago to the current 80.5% (a fluctuation of 22%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Nikkei News, the rise in Bitcoin prices lacks momentum, as it was bought due to "dollar depreciation trading," but this is only a fleeting moment. Now, the expectation of interest rate hikes in the United States has become a heavy burden for Bitcoin. The market generally expects Bitcoin prices to peak in the fall.A factor to watch is the U.S. midterm elections in November. In years when midterm elections were held, the market tends to decline from September to the end of the year, with a drop of 45% in 2018 and an 18% decline in 2022.

Glassnode released a report stating that a short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, breaking above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above and fell back to around $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, there is still a large amount of potential short liquidation positions clustered between $83,000 and $86,000, while the area between $60,000 and $63,000 contains an undigested long liquidation zone, with BTC positioned between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 in May this year, about 65% of the supply was in profit; by the end of August, when it returned to the same price level, that ratio had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of chips pushed the cost basis of short-term holders to about $71,000, and the same price now would activate more profit-taking chips, increasing potential selling pressure. Considering the overall cost basis and chip distribution, the accumulation support zone is between $62,000 and $65,000, while the concentrated supply zone for long-term holders is between $83,000 and $86,000.The average net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF during the rebound peaked at $290 million per day over seven days, but the daily trading volume in the secondary market remained around $3 billion, significantly lower than during the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell to 4.6% after the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just eight trading days, reaching a new high for this cycle, indicating that sovereign debt pressure is still affecting market valuations. In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled, while long-term options demand remains. The open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 is about $14 billion, with a large number of positions concentrated above $80,000, which may become important volatility and position anchor points in the coming weeks. Before the supply above $83,000 to $86,000 is digested, BTC will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations, with $62,000 to $65,000 being the main downward reference area.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers" on Polymarket, the option "Milwaukee Brewers" in the sub-market "Spread -1.5" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 50.5% an hour ago to the current 90% (a fluctuation of 39.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.