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SOL $84.68 -0.87%
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BCH $370.09 -2.78%
LINK $9.57 -2.19%
HYPE $48.48 +1.28%
AAVE $87.64 -1.96%
SUI $1.05 -2.84%
XLM $0.1429 -2.65%
ZEC $585.53 +3.42%

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Wintermute: If Bitcoin falls below $75,000, it may quickly drop to the $70,000 range

Wintermute released a market outlook indicating that the cryptocurrency market has come under significant pressure this week due to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S. and a reversal in interest rate expectations. Bitcoin failed to break through the 200-day moving average when it first encountered a major macro shock, showing that the previous rally was driven more by short covering rather than sustained inflows of new capital.The market environment has clearly changed, with U.S. CPI growth accelerating, core inflation exceeding expectations, and real wages turning negative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.58%, while a new Fed chair with a more hawkish stance will take office in three weeks. The market's pricing of the Fed's policy path has also changed rapidly, shifting from betting on rate cuts to concerns about further rate hikes within just five trading days.Cross-asset performance also reflects this change: Brent crude oil rose 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 5.7% and 10.2%, respectively. Capital is flowing into assets that drive inflation, while cryptocurrencies have performed even weaker than the stock market during the downturn, a relative weakness that is considered a cause for concern.Despite the long-term structural positives still in place, including Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remaining at multi-year lows, long-term holders continuing to accumulate, and the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory bill "CLARITY," institutional capital is more inclined to take profits on rebounds in the short term rather than continue to increase positions. The market is currently focused on the $76,000 to $78,000 range for Bitcoin; if it can hold this position after Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, market confidence may recover. However, if it falls below $75,000, along with a decline in funding rates and continued outflows from ETFs, it could quickly drop to the $70,000 range.

Analysis: Bitcoin is still in a strong expansion range, with multiple on-chain and funding indicators confirming a comprehensive bullish momentum

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

Hut 8 reaches a $200 million Bitcoin collateralized credit agreement, replacing the original Coinbase Credit financing arrangement

Bitcoin mining company and energy infrastructure platform Hut 8 announced that its subsidiary has reached a $200 million Bitcoin collateralized credit agreement with FalconX, replacing the previous financing arrangement from Coinbase Credit. The new financing has an annual fixed interest rate of 7.0%, a decrease of 200 basis points from the previous 9.0% financing from Coinbase; during the period from December 2023 to March 2025, the financing cost was as high as 10.5%–11.5%, with a cumulative reduction of up to 450 basis points, demonstrating progress in continuously optimizing debt costs.After this refinancing, Hut 8 has approximately 3,300 BTC converted to an uncollateralized state, valued at about $260 million based on the market value as of May 1, 2026, significantly enhancing its balance sheet flexibility and liquidity. Meanwhile, the credit structure maintains key risk control terms, including a limited recourse structure, a no-rehypothecation clause, and a fixed LTV threshold design, preventing additional margin calls triggered by a decline in Bitcoin prices.Hut 8's management stated that this financing not only reduces financing costs but also releases more uncollateralized Bitcoin assets, helping to enhance capital allocation flexibility across different market cycles; FalconX emphasized that this transaction reflects its ongoing expansion capabilities in institutional-level Bitcoin credit solutions.
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