REI

4E: Weak consumer confidence reignites economic concerns, US stock market gains slow down, cryptocurrency market fluctuates upward

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, Trump may ease tariff plans, somewhat alleviating market anxiety over a full-blown trade war, supporting the continued rebound of U.S. stocks. On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indices rose slightly, continuing Monday's gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.16%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.46%. Most large tech stocks were up, with Tesla rising over 3% for five consecutive days, accumulating a total increase of 28%.The cryptocurrency market is fluctuating upward, with Bitcoin retreating after reaching a high of $88,765 on Monday, and last night it broke through $88,000 again, showing strong upward momentum. As of the time of writing, it has slightly retreated, hovering above $87,000, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 0.8%. Most sectors in the market are rising, with the Meme sector continuing to perform strongly. Current market sentiment is optimistic; historically, risk assets tend to perform best in the second quarter, especially in April each year.In the forex and commodities sector, the latest economic data showed weakness, causing the dollar index to turn down after reaching a nearly three-week high, ending a four-day winning streak; oil prices fell slightly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine agreement; with a poor economic outlook, spot gold rose by 0.31%, reversing a trend of three consecutive days of decline.The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for March, released last night, fell below expectations, dropping to its lowest level in four years, reflecting consumer concerns about the economic outlook. The disappointing data significantly slowed the upward momentum of U.S. stocks, with the three major indices narrowly maintaining their gains. As the April 2 effective date for reciprocal tariffs approaches, the market is closely watching how related policies will affect economic growth and inflation.

Standard Chartered Bank's Head of Digital Asset Research: Bitcoin's rebound will depend on two major catalysts, namely a recovery in risk assets overall or favorable news such as sovereign purchases

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick stated that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily influenced by the pressure from broader risk assets, rather than issues within the cryptocurrency itself. "From a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's performance is highly correlated with the 'seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin' portfolio," Kendrick noted in an email on Tuesday, "Tesla performed the worst, while Meta and Apple performed the best, with the rest being similar to Bitcoin."Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound will depend on two main catalysts: a recovery in risk assets overall or Bitcoin-specific positive news (such as sovereign purchases). He pointed out that clearer tariff policies or a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve would help boost the market, "the probability of a rate cut in the May meeting rising from the current 50% to 75% could trigger a rebound." Although Bitcoin may quickly test the $69,000 support level if it falls below $76,500 in the short term, he still maintains a target forecast of $200,000 by the end of 2025.Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be a significant test for Bitcoin. Rohit Jain, Managing Director of CoinDCX Ventures, stated that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rates as expected, it could lead to Bitcoin testing the $70,000 support level.
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