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a16z: TradFi is not embracing the DeFi model, but rather accelerating the adoption of blockchain technology

a16z published a blog post stating that as traditional financial institutions accelerate their exploration of blockchain technology, the market generally believes that the future will see a comprehensive integration of DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and TradFi (Traditional Finance), forming a new financial model through the combination of decentralized finance and institutional distribution systems.However, the reality may not be so. The core motivation for traditional financial institutions to adopt blockchain is not to embrace decentralization, but to value its commercial benefits in reducing costs, improving settlement efficiency, expanding distribution channels, and optimizing customer relationship management.What is more likely to emerge in the future is a new type of "programmable financial infrastructure" based on underlying blockchain technology, optimized for institutional needs, rather than a simple integration of traditional finance and DeFi. Institutions are selectively absorbing certain technological capabilities from DeFi and modifying them according to their own regulatory, risk management, and operational requirements.For example, atomic settlement can reduce counterparty risk, shared ledgers can lower back-office reconciliation costs, programmable funds can automatically execute processes such as interest payments, margin management, and corporate actions, and automated market-making models are also being applied to on-chain foreign exchange and tokenized asset pricing.At the same time, the native DeFi features of open access, anonymity, and trustless execution often conflict with institutional requirements for compliance, control, and accountability. Therefore, cases such as JPMorgan's institutional blockchain project, BlackRock's and Franklin Templeton's tokenized funds, are essentially not traditional finance entering DeFi, but rather using blockchain technology to improve existing financial business processes.In the future, the blockchain industry will have two development paths: on one hand, enterprises and financial institutions will continue to promote the implementation of blockchain infrastructure that meets regulatory requirements, expanding the industry scale through applications such as stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain settlements; on the other hand, open networks will continue to play the role of a source of innovation, continuously generating new financial primitives and market mechanisms, providing technical reserves for future institutional infrastructure.TradFi and DeFi are not in competition but are developing together in different directions. Traditional finance may not fully adopt the DeFi model but will gradually adopt parts that suit its own needs. The true integration may ultimately occur at the underlying blockchain network level, rather than one side replacing the other.For developers, the key is not to chase all markets simultaneously but to clarify the target audience: for institutions, products need to be built around compliance, risk control, and long-term business processes; for open networks, there is a need to continue exploring innovation, liquidity, and network effects. The future financial system may operate on blockchain infrastructure, but the most important innovations may still come first from open networks.

Wintermute: Bitcoin shows "bearish but not falling" bottoming characteristics, key resistance level at $67,250

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.
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