Pectra Upgrade

JPMorgan: The crypto market is in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have pointed out several key factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, mentioning technologies, geopolitical issues, and structural events that could drive price volatility. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the seasonal "Uptober" trend, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the upcoming Ethereum upgrade known as Pectra.One key conclusion of the report is that October has historically shown strong performance, often referred to as "Uptober," with over 70% of Octobers yielding positive returns for Bitcoin. The analysts wrote, "Although past performance is not indicative of future results, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' could influence behavior and lead to positive Bitcoin performance this October." Despite the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has yet to see the anticipated positive effects; while a rate-cutting environment typically supports risk assets, the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46. Since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant rise in cryptocurrency prices due to the cuts, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift.Additionally, the analysts acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. The analysts expect this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could initiate a positive feedback loop, enhancing market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, referred to as "Pectra," is also seen as a significant development.The analysts stated, "While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to improve Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption rates, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices."The analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. They stated, "We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive the ecosystem's development and enhance retail participation for long-term growth."

Report: Ethereum Pectra Upgrade May Bring Multiple Risks

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, as Ethereum is set to undergo the Pectra upgrade in early 2025, Liquid Collective and Obol have released a latest research report revealing several risks associated with this upgrade. The report emphasizes the importance of client, operator, and cloud diversity, while also expressing concerns about the limited adoption of Distributed Validator Technology (DVT). Matt Leisinger, Chief Product Officer of Alluvial, stated that addressing the risks associated with Ethereum staking and protocol-level penalties has become a pressing priority.The report specifically points out that potential bugs in mainstream clients could trigger severe slashing penalties and network instability. In terms of staking, operator diversity is crucial for maintaining network health and preventing single points of failure. Leisinger emphasized that stakers and service providers must rigorously assess relevance, diversity, and risk mitigation measures to address potential risks. Additionally, the report discusses the issue of cloud diversity, calling for widely distributed validators and cloud providers to enhance system resilience. DVT technology is seen as an important means to reduce associated risks and enhance validator resilience. For long-term resilience and institutional adoption, staking configurations should prioritize the diversity of node operators and validators.
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