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Duan Yongping's estimated unrealized loss on his holdings in Pop Mart is approximately HKD 1.87 billion to HKD 2.12 billion

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's equity disclosure, Duan Yongping holds 106,716,000 shares of Pop Mart (09992.HK) through his investment entities, accounting for 8.01% of the issued shares. Based on the stock price of HKD 132.50 on October 27, the market value of the holdings is approximately HKD 14.14 billion.In terms of cost, Jiemian News quoted market estimates on October 26, indicating that the average comprehensive holding cost is around HKD 150 per share; Lan Jing News previously estimated the comprehensive cost to be about HKD 152.32 per share. The corresponding paper losses are approximately HKD 1.868 billion and HKD 2.115 billion, with loss ratios of about 11.67% and 13.01%. The relevant purchase records are: 9.8232 million shares bought on May 25 at an average price of HKD 150; 4.66 million shares bought on May 28 at an average price of HKD 162.5; 10.59 million shares bought on July 6, calculated at approximately HKD 150; and an additional 1 million shares on September 1 at an average price of HKD 155. The first three transactions total approximately 25.07 million shares, with an investment of about HKD 3.816 billion, and a weighted average price of approximately HKD 152.4.The above is based on media estimates of costs and is not the actual investment gains and losses disclosed by Duan Yongping; part of the underlying position comes from options trading, and the complete holding cost cannot be independently verified solely based on public information. Pop Mart's announcement shows that overall revenue for the third quarter of 2026 (unaudited) is expected to decline by 45% to 50% compared to the third quarter of 2025; a decline of 25% to 30% in China, 65% to 70% in the Asia-Pacific region, 70% to 75% in the Americas, and 50% to 55% in Europe and other regions; offline channels in China are expected to decline by 5% to 10%, while online channels are expected to decline by 45% to 50%.

first_img Anthropic's prospectus names TSMC, warning that advanced chip production capacity is concentrated in Taiwan

The AI laboratory Anthropic, which developed Claude, named TSMC in its IPO prospectus, warning that the world's most advanced chip manufacturing capacity is highly concentrated in Taiwan. The prospectus states that if TSMC's operations are disrupted, it could severely impact the supply of AI chips and affect Anthropic's business, financial condition, and operational results.According to MoneyDJ citing the prospectus, the global AI industry heavily relies on TSMC's advanced processes. Suppliers such as NVIDIA and AMD, as well as companies that design their own chips like Amazon and Google, all need TSMC to turn their designs into physical chips. The listed risks include earthquakes, typhoons, interruptions in power and water supply, as well as cross-strait geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, blockades, tariffs, and trade restrictions.The prospectus also states that if a significant event occurs in Taiwan, the supply of advanced chips could be severely hindered; due to the time-consuming nature of building and certifying alternative foundries, the impact could last for several years. The expansion of advanced processes outside Taiwan is still in its early stages, making it difficult to effectively reduce concentration risks in the short term. TSMC has been unable to fully meet market demand due to strong demand, resulting in Anthropic not being able to obtain a sufficient supply of chips in a timely manner.

DeGods founder Frank: Anthropic's prospectus cannot hide the investment risks in AI

The founder and trader of the NFT project DeGods, Frank, posted on X that although Anthropic's latest S-1 shows strong revenue growth, it cannot be concluded that the resistance to AI investment has disappeared. He stated that the second quarter of 2026 will be a peak for companies to purchase and consume AI Tokens in large quantities, and the market will only begin to pay attention to AI spending management by July; the rise in model homogeneity and the narrowing of output differences may intensify competition and compress profit margins, a trend that has not yet fully manifested in the second quarter.Frank also mentioned that there is still a lack of clear evidence proving that AI can create more profits for most companies, and Anthropic's large enterprise clients are also under pressure to improve their profit margins, which may lead to cuts in spending related to Claude in the future. Large tech companies and AI labs have signed capital expenditure commitments extending to 2034, and related expectations may have already been factored into stock prices; if companies improve the efficiency of existing chips to reduce costs or issue more shares to raise additional capital expenditure, it could put pressure on the valuations of related stocks. He expressed a long-term optimistic view on AI and may participate significantly in the Anthropic IPO, but believes that the ultimate winners in the industry have yet to be determined, and real investment opportunities may only emerge after the current market cycle ends.

Apollo Chief Economist: The profit margins of the seven tech giants are rising, while the rest of the S&P companies are stagnant

The chief economist of the American asset management firm Apollo, Torsten Sløk, released five charts, believing that AI has not yet brought significant financial returns to large American companies outside of the tech giants. The per capita revenue and profit margins of the seven tech giants continue to rise; excluding them, the 493 companies in the S&P have seen these two metrics remain basically stagnant, and the data on total factor productivity in the U.S. has not shown significant signs of AI-driven growth.Apollo cited data from the corporate payment platform Ramp, stating that among its clients, the top 10% of companies by spending contributed 99.5% of the model hosting and inference costs. Among the top 1% of companies with the highest AI spending, about 80% have venture capital backgrounds; for companies at the median spending level, this ratio is only 13%. A large amount of AI computing power consumption is concentrated in a few companies, many of which rely on venture capital support.Previous statistics from Apollo indicated that during the second quarter earnings season of 2026, 69% of S&P 500 companies had disclosed that they were actually using AI, but only 2% reported metrics for ongoing tracking of effectiveness. Another NBER study updated in October this year surveyed nearly 9,000 corporate executives from seven countries, with respondents estimating that over the past three years, AI has only improved the annual growth rate of labor productivity in companies by about 0.2 percentage points.

Institution reviews Anthropic's prospectus, focusing on growth and computing power costs

After Anthropic publicly submitted its prospectus the previous evening, investment institutions and market participants began to assess its growth quality, cost structure, and potential valuation. Morningstar senior equity analyst Malik Ahmed Khan and PitchBook analyst Rolfes stated that as of September 30, Anthropic had over 11,900 enterprise customers contributing at least $100,000 in revenue over the last 12 months, compared to about 950 in the same period last year. Khan believes this reflects a faster adoption of Claude in the enterprise market and significant revenue growth.Analysts also pointed out that the rapid increase in customer numbers alone is insufficient to indicate long-term revenue stability. The prospectus lacks detailed data on customer retention, and the disclosed net revenue retention rate is also affected by a small base; as the comparison base expands, this metric may decline. Investment in computing power is another focus. Morningstar believes that Anthropic currently demonstrates a certain level of computing efficiency and operational efficiency, but some computing resources and related expenditures have not yet been fully reflected; as more computing power is utilized, costs may rise, and if revenue growth does not keep pace, profit margins will be under pressure.PitchBook analyst Rolfes reminded that the scale of future computing contracts and infrastructure commitments is enormous, and whether revenue growth can be sustained is an important variable in assessing profitability prospects. Gavin Baker, managing partner and chief investment officer of Atreides Management, stated that it is still possible for Anthropic to reach an annualized recurring revenue of $100 billion by the end of the year; this statement reflects his personal judgment and is not the company's published performance guidance. Nigel Green, CEO of independent financial advisory firm deVere Group, questioned the market's rumored potential valuation of $2 trillion, calling this expectation "absurd," and reminded to pay attention to infrastructure investments, slowing growth, and future financing needs. The $2 trillion figure remains a market rumor, and the prospectus has yet to determine the offering price and scale.
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