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Research: Over 150 Polymarket wallets suspected of utilizing U.S. military secrets for trading, with total profits of approximately 8 million dollars

The latest research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) shows that at least 152 anonymous wallets on Polymarket may have profited approximately $8 million by trading on advanced knowledge of U.S. military and defense-related information, achieving an average win rate of 97.2%. However, the research institution emphasizes that blockchain data itself cannot prove the actual identities of the controllers of these wallets, nor can it confirm the sources of their information, and therefore insider trading cannot be established based on this.ACDC analyzed settled markets on Polymarket, focusing on "low probability high stakes" behaviors, which are trades that cumulatively bet at least $2,500 within one hour, with corresponding outcome probabilities not exceeding 35%. The study identified 556 wallets with abnormal trading patterns, of which 152 were involved in military and defense markets. These wallets were referred to by researchers as "Orcas," characterized by their sudden appearance, betting on low probability events, and achieving abnormally high success rates before profiting and exiting.The research found that the success rate of low probability bets in military and defense markets was significantly higher than the overall level on Polymarket, and some abnormal trades quickly attracted large traders and automated trading bots to follow. For example, before a U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, an abnormal bet on U.S. military action appeared, after which an automated trading bot subsequently bet $200,000, and another large trader bet $100,000. Researchers also found similar abnormal bets and follow-on trading behavior before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Tehran.David Szakonyi, co-founder of ACDC, stated that the abnormal trading activities on Polymarket are more public than many traders realize, and large traders and bots are already tracking and replicating suspected informed trades, so foreign intelligence agencies may also be monitoring these public on-chain trading activities. The issue of insider trading in prediction markets has recently received ongoing attention from regulatory agencies. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading Polymarket contracts using confidential information regarding the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro, allegedly profiting over $404,000. This case is not directly related to the 152 wallets identified. Additionally, in May, the CFTC also charged a Google software engineer with trading 23 Polymarket contracts using confidential information related to the company's 2025 "annual search" rankings, profiting approximately $1.2 million with near-perfect accuracy. Polymarket has previously stated that the company closely monitors suspicious trading and has reported dozens of wallets to the relevant authorities. As the scale of prediction markets continues to expand, insider trading, market manipulation, and national security risks are becoming important reasons for regulatory agencies to strengthen oversight.

Citi: Plans to provide Bitcoin custody services for institutional clients within the year, incorporating into the Custody+ platform

Citi plans to offer Bitcoin custody services for institutional clients through its Custody+ platform later this year. This service will integrate Bitcoin with traditional assets such as stocks and bonds within the same custody framework, allowing clients to access custody, settlement, foreign exchange, cash, and liquidity services through a single system. Bitcoin will be the first digital asset supported by Citi's new custody service, and Citi has not yet announced a specific launch date or the list of initial clients.Custody+ is launched by Citi Investor Services, and Citi's custody business covers over 100 markets, operating its own custody network in 62 markets. Citi states that its goal is for banks to self-custody native digital assets rather than relying solely on external exchanges or other digital asset companies. The project has been in development for about two to three years, with Citi first disclosing related plans in 2025. Custody+ will provide real-time settlement, foreign exchange services, automated hedging, cash management, and liquidity tools. The Single Event Processing in its custody system currently processes over 80% of event volume in real-time; in the U.S., this system has reduced the processing time for some voluntary corporate actions by up to 92%, with 96% of related events completed within two hours. Chris Cox, head of Citi Investor Services, stated that Citi invests over $2 billion annually in its Services platform.

Market volatility and capital differentiation continue, and Gate's multi-asset trading capabilities for institutions are continuously improving

In the past week, inflationary pressures in the United States have eased somewhat, but weakening retail sales have raised concerns in the market about economic growth. Overall, U.S. stocks have maintained resilience, while the cryptocurrency market has been relatively weak. BTC ETF saw a weekly net outflow of approximately $385 million, and institutional allocations have cooled; BTC OI rose to about $12.3 billion, with funding rates remaining positive. Meanwhile, DEX weekly trading volume decreased by 5.2%, and the on-chain and DeFi markets have generally become more cautious.Against the backdrop of differentiated market risk appetite, Gate TradFi trading remains active, with weekly trading volume maintaining a high level of approximately $115 billion. Perp trading continues to grow, and the proportion of Korean stock trading has significantly rebounded. In terms of stocks, the latest exchange rankings from RootData show that Gate's stock spot and futures businesses have both entered the industry's top two, currently covering core markets such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks, further connecting traditional finance with digital assets.Based on the needs of professional investors, Gate has comprehensively upgraded its diverse service system covering TradFi, spot, and derivatives, providing a one-stop institutional-level trading infrastructure to assist global institutional investors in efficiently allocating various assets. In the face of market volatility and cross-market allocation needs, Gate continues to promote the construction of multi-market trading infrastructure. Its subsidiary, Gate CrossEx, has supported multiple mainstream venues, providing unified management of accounts, funds, positions, and trading across exchanges, significantly reducing multi-platform operating costs.

first_img The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit for the first half of the year is HKD 10.568 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%

On August 19, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange released its mid-year results for 2026. In the first half of 2026, revenue and other income reached HKD 16.702 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 10.568 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, both figures setting new records. Boosted by the performance, the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed at HKD 414.6, up 2.37%. The performance was driven by strong corporate financing demand and an increase in trading volumes of spot, derivatives, and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. In the first half of the year, 87 new stocks were listed, raising a total of HKD 212.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94%.The average daily trading amount in the spot market increased by 18% year-on-year to HKD 283 billion, setting a new high for the same period; the average daily trading contracts in derivatives increased by 6% to 1.8 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached RMB 345.3 billion, more than double that of the same period last year. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase maintained "Buy" and "Overweight" ratings, respectively. Before the performance announcement, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced the renewal of CEO Charles Li's contract for three years, with the new term starting from March 1, 2027, to February 28, 2030, which has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.During the period, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange promoted consultations to shorten the stock settlement cycle, simplify the trading unit for each transaction, and introduced the first ETF tracking the "Hong Kong Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index," announcing the launch of Chinese government bond futures. In response to the extension of trading hours, Charles Li stated that the derivatives market operates until 3 a.m. the next day and will prioritize connecting with the North American market, while the spot market requires more detailed communication.
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