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Bitfinex: The recent rise in Bitcoin is mainly driven by spot demand and short covering, with profit-taking potentially being the biggest risk

Bitcoin recently rose to a monthly high, with Bitfinex analysts stating that this round of market activity is primarily driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than new leveraged funds, thus providing a longer duration compared to typical short squeeze scenarios. As investors who bought Bitcoin in the past five months are currently in a profit state, the main risk of the current upward trend comes from profit-taking chips flowing into trading platforms.Bitfinex believes that the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases is an important factor driving the recent market activity. The initial phase of this rise was indeed driven by short liquidations. On the same day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $297.6 million. However, the subsequent price increase mainly came from spot buying. From the position structure, while Bitcoin prices rose by 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) only increased by about 4%, indicating that spot demand and short covering played a major role, while the impact of leveraged funds was limited.Bitfinex pointed out that the $68,000 to $69,000 range is currently an important support level, close to the average cost of buyers over the past five months. If Bitcoin maintains above this level, it will keep these investors in a profitable state, reducing the pressure of previously trapped chips selling during rebounds. In terms of funds, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 1, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about 82%. Bitfinex stated that if fund inflows continue for a week, it will further strengthen the market demand structure.However, Bitfinex warns that the current biggest risk is a large amount of profitable Bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest profit-taking market since 2026. Analysts indicate that if real yields rise again to levels that previously suppressed Bitcoin from falling below $65,000, macro factors could still quickly impact the market.

Large U.S. banking organizations propose to include customer identification requirements for the secondary market of stablecoins

The Bank Policy Institute (BPI) is an organization representing large banks such as JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi. BPI proposed that the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury should expand customer identification program requirements to the secondary market for stablecoins, covering exchanges and other platforms that establish direct account relationships with retail investors.BPI stated that the relevant exchanges and platforms engage in a significant amount of buying and selling activities within the payment stablecoin ecosystem, where most illegal activities related to stablecoins occur. If the proposal is incorporated into the rules, the relevant platforms will be required to collect customer information in accordance with the Bank Secrecy Act, and decentralized exchanges may also fall under regulatory oversight. The proposed rules by FinCEN indicate that transactions in the secondary market for stablecoins on the blockchain typically use anonymous or pseudonymous identities, and there are no centralized nodes for collecting identity information, limiting the ability of issuers to gather customer data from the secondary market. BPI has also opposed the current version of the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill along with other banking organizations.
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