ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted an analysis on the X platform, stating that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced in three hours. Currently, based on futures data, there is a 60% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. All markets are focused on this.From the cryptocurrency options data, there is also a significant divergence in the market. The implied volatility (IV) for ultra-short-term options is as high as 70%, with a noticeably higher IV for put options. In terms of options trading distribution, the BTC 58000 puts and ETH 2200 puts have the highest trading volume, indicating that the options market is generally bearish ahead of the interest rate meeting. A 25 basis point cut would be below expectations, while a 50 basis point cut suggests a deterioration in economic indicators.

ChainCatcher news, the analysis and research platform Block Scholes stated in a new report that the implied volatility levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum options have significantly increased across different expiration dates. This surge is particularly evident in short-term options, indicating a rise in recent uncertainty.Analysts noted that the derivatives market is clearly leaning towards out-of-the-money put options for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term. As spot prices struggle to recover from recent declines, this trend suggests an enhanced bearish outlook in the short term. Some aggressive traders may look to buy call options expiring at the end of September, when uncertainty is expected to ease.

ChainCatcher news, according to Greeks.live macro researcher Adam, the crypto market has suffered a significant setback due to selling pressure from bulls, with BTC dropping to $57,000 and ETH falling to $3,100. Options market data shows that BTC's main short-term implied volatility (IV) has increased by 10%, with Dvol rising by 3%. The increase in ETH-related parameters is slightly lower than that of BTC, and the skew has clearly shifted towards a bearish direction. The volume of large bearish trades in BTC is noticeably increasing, with a complex distribution of trades, and the largest transaction next week is the 58,000 Put.From the options data, it appears that whales are currently not too concerned about potential downside risks, mainly adjusting their positions for last week's quarterly settlement, especially in ETH, where whales have shown low volatility expectations.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that despite Bitcoin falling below the $60,000 mark and Ethereum dropping below the $3,000 mark yesterday, the market panic sentiment is spreading extremely, but the implied volatility (IV) of major expiration options is significantly decreasing.It is reported that this is mainly due to the sharp decline in the prices of call options. The current monthly skew has reached a new low since this bull market, with the prices of put options far exceeding those of call options, while medium to long-term options have dropped close to the zero axis. From the options indicators, Ethereum's bullish sentiment is relatively weak, with limited ability to lead the market. Bitcoin's bullish strength still exists, and the halving is this Saturday; this month's bull market still needs Bitcoin to take the lead.