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BTC $77,267.59 +0.31%
ETH $2,112.11 -0.29%
BNB $665.96 +0.97%
XRP $1.36 -0.29%
SOL $85.79 -0.45%
TRX $0.3664 +0.50%
DOGE $0.1028 -0.04%
ADA $0.2446 +0.01%
BCH $349.45 -1.17%
LINK $9.52 -0.23%
HYPE $63.65 +1.37%
AAVE $86.39 -0.95%
SUI $1.04 -0.94%
XLM $0.1507 +1.54%
ZEC $675.04 +5.04%

on-chain

Glassnode: Bitcoin has reclaimed the real market average but has not been able to hold steady; on-chain indicators suggest consolidation may continue for several months

Glassnode stated that Bitcoin has reclaimed the real market average at $78,300 but has failed to maintain a position above this level. Historical cycles suggest that several weeks to months of consolidation may be needed before confirming a credible bull market transition. The 30-day moving average has seen its risk-reward ratio rise from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. This indicator needs to remain above 2 to signal a true recovery of buyer strength.The 30-day cost baseline at $78,200 has shifted from a support level to an overhead resistance level, while the cost baseline of the accumulation group formed from February to April ($71,400) is currently the most direct support level in the ongoing pullback. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) remaining negative overall, and Coinbase activity continues to lag. This indicates that while there is sporadic offshore speculative demand, the participation of U.S. institutions in the spot market remains relatively weak.CME futures open interest has continued to rise alongside prices, indicating that while overall spot demand remains hesitant near the current range highs, institutional participation in the derivatives market is improving. The accumulation rate of U.S. spot ETFs has recently slowed, further indicating that positions are increasingly driven by futures activity. Implied volatility is rebounding from low levels, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, and the volatility risk premium has expanded, making the cost of hedging relatively manageable. Options positions remain defensive. The skew indicator shows a resurgence in demand for downside protection, while the negative gamma range around $75,000 makes spot prices susceptible to amplified hedging flows and increased price volatility.

Data: On-chain data shows that during the continuous decline of BTC, large funds have not yet fled, with support appearing around $76,000

Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on social media that from May 15 to 19, Bitcoin fell for five consecutive trading days. Previously, the market sentiment, which was once worried about missing out, quickly shifted, and some investors began to expect prices to fall back to the range of $40,000 to $50,000. However, from the on-chain chip structure, the attitude of large funds presents a different picture.According to the data from May 15, $66,000 and $78,000 are the two price levels with the most concentrated turnover, clearly reflecting the entry positions of large funds. It is worth noting that the chip column in the range of $80,000 to $82,000 is relatively low. Although Bitcoin's price stayed in this range for nearly a week, the turnover was sparse, indicating that after the price returned above $80,000, funds began to become cautious.By May 19, as the price fell, the chip column at $78,000 not only did not decrease but actually increased. The most significant change was at the $76,000 price level; previously, when the price broke through this position, the chips at this level were just over 200,000, but when the price fell back to this position, the chips had increased to about 380,000. Analysts believe this indicates that the funds that entered at $78,000 did not panic and flee due to breaking below their cost. When the price fell to $76,000, new funds chose to enter and support, showing a clear attitude.From the chip structure, a reasonable correction range is roughly between $78,000 and $66,000. A second retest into this range and completing the turnover is expected to give the structure stronger resilience. Although the final price low is still difficult to predict, the attitude of funds starting to act around $76,000 indicates a clear willingness to support the market below.

Gate Ventures: Inflationary pressures impact the market, institutions accelerate the layout of stablecoins and on-chain financial infrastructure

According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, global markets were significantly pressured last week due to inflation data and rising energy prices. The S&P 500 index initially broke through 7,500 points for the first time, but subsequently fell back as both CPI and PPI data exceeded expectations, leading the market to begin pricing in potential interest rate hike risks. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market also weakened, with BTC dropping 8.1% last week and ETH falling 10.2%. The spot BTC ETF recorded a net outflow of $1 billion, and market sentiment returned to the "panic" range.At the industry level, institutional investments in stablecoins and on-chain financial infrastructure are accelerating. JPMorgan is advancing a tokenized money market fund aimed at stablecoin issuers; DTCC will use Chainlink to build an all-weather collateral management network; Hana Bank has acquired a stake in Upbit operator Dunamu for $670 million, further reflecting that traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the cryptocurrency infrastructure sector.In terms of investment and financing, a total of 14 financing deals were completed last week, with a total scale of $1.113 billion, of which financing in the infrastructure sector exceeded $1 billion, dominating the market. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic completed a $120 million financing round, with Deutsche Bank and Nasdaq participating; Bitcoin custody platform Onramp also completed a $12.5 million Series A financing, continuing to expand its institutional-grade custody infrastructure. Overall, in the context of rising macro uncertainty, market funds continue to concentrate on compliance, custody, and institutional-grade services.
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