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Bonk Guy: Market sentiment is low but may give rise to opportunities, on-chain market conditions are expected to improve

Well-known trader Bonk Guy posted that although the current crypto community generally believes that the on-chain trading environment has fallen to historical lows, approximately six new tokens have reached a market capitalization of over 100 million to 300 million dollars in the past four months, and dozens of new tokens have completely diluted valuations (FDV) exceeding 10 million dollars.Among them, tokens such as PONS, ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, and STONK have all reached FDVs of at least 300 million dollars. Despite the deterioration in market structure, there are still tokens that occasionally experience significant price increases. Compared to the period before the emergence of Robinhood Chain, and the sluggish period after the issuance of the TRUMP token last year, and before the initial rise of BonkFun, the current market is far from reaching its historical worst levels.Although the current market environment is not as bullish as it was a few months ago, it does not mean that on-chain trading opportunities have disappeared. As market sentiment is dominated by pessimistic views, it is expected that the market may soon warm up, with the recovery speed potentially faster than most people's expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to tokens that performed well in the last round of market trends and have high confidence, and consider gradually positioning during pullbacks. Historical experience indicates that some tokens may not only return to previous highs in the next round of increases but may also rise further, and the biggest opportunities in the market often appear before mainstream sentiment shifts.

first_img Analysis: On-chain options are the biggest opportunity in the cryptocurrency field

User Momilio posted: On-chain options are currently the biggest blank space and opportunity in the cryptocurrency field. This content is excerpted from its upcoming on-chain options research report, currently just a summary of one chapter. Momilio stated: Mature financial markets will eventually expand to options, and cryptocurrency has reached a turning point; constraints are no longer regulatory or infrastructural, market-making liquidity has improved, and pricing systems can now support larger-scale transactions. It also noted: The trading volume of on-chain options is still only 6.9% of Deribit's options trading volume, and to reach critical scale, a large influx of retail order flow is necessary.Momilio stated: The annual trading contracts for U.S. options increased from 4.19 billion in 2017 to 15.2 billion in 2025, a growth of 263%, primarily due to retail investors. After Robinhood launched commission-free options in December 2017, the proportion of S&P 500 options on the same day rose from 5% to over 60% within ten years. By 2023, the proportion of contracts expiring within a week rose to 68%, with same-day options accounting for 43%; SSRN research shows that over 75% of retail-related trades are contracts expiring on the same day.In India, the premium for stock options is expected to reach 190.65 trillion rupees by the fiscal year 2026, which is 45.8 times that of the fiscal year 2016, with over 90% of retail derivatives traders only engaging in options. By the end of 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India will raise the minimum contract size from 500,000 rupees to 1.5 million rupees and restrict weekly expirations to only one benchmark index, with premiums still increasing by 7% in the fiscal year 2026. In the first half of 2026, the trading volume of options contracts on Indian exchanges reached 39.3 billion, which is 4.5 times that of the U.S. at 8.7 billion, while U.S. premiums of $6.3 trillion are nearly 5 times India's $1.3 trillion.

first_img Decentralised.co: On-chain options trading is still less than 1% of perpetual DEX

Decentralised.co published: The on-chain options trading volume is still less than 1% of perpetual contract DEX, while traditional market options trading is about three times that of futures. The institution backtested Bitcoin daily closing prices from January 2018 to October 2026, finding that among the ultimately profitable longs, the liquidation probabilities for 10x perpetual contracts over 180 days, 90 days, and 60 days were 47%, 29%, and 18%, respectively. It replayed three $1,000 Bitcoin longs on October 10, 2025: the 10x perpetual was liquidated at 21:14, the 30-day call option dropped to a low of $181 but returned to over $800 within an hour, and a $52 7-day put option helped the 10x long survive the downturn.Decentralised.co: In the past, on-chain options often failed due to fragmented order books, difficult hedging, and locked funds. Hegic depositors lost most of about $80 million in May 2021, Lyra depositors experienced a 4.9% loss in the Bitcoin pool and a 17.6% loss in the Ethereum pool within 7 months, and PsyOptions closed its product in June 2024. With the combination of perpetual liquidity like Hyperliquid, the locked funds required to sell a Bitcoin call option could be reduced from about $100,000 to about $15,000, while monthly returns increased from 1.8% to about 12%.The article lists Hyperliquid as the main venue for hedging liquidity, with the options protocol Derive (formerly Lyra) as the underlying engine, Paradex handling large trades, and Hypercall being the first options venue built on Hyperliquid. Derive liquidated about $18 billion in notional options value in the year ending October 19. After Paradex integrated with Paradigm on September 15, the date options trading volume increased from less than $3 million to $58.7 million within a week, and open contracts decreased from over $250 million to about $96 million by October 14. By September 2026, the notional value of on-chain options is expected to double to $5 billion, with premiums rising to $85 million.

ARK Invest released the Q3 DeFi report: stock tokenization has become the main driving force behind the recovery of on-chain trading activities, accounting for approximately 9% of spot DEX trading volume

ARK Invest's Q3 2026 DeFi report shows that stock tokenization has become the main driving force behind the rebound in on-chain trading activity for the quarter. The trading volume of tokenized stock spot DEX reached approximately $50 billion, about 9 times that of the previous quarter, with its share of total spot DEX trading volume rising from about 1% to around 9%. Overall, DEX spot trading volume increased by approximately 13% quarter-over-quarter to $571 billion, marking the first growth in nearly four quarters.Robinhood Chain achieved approximately $65 billion in DEX trading volume and $51 million in network revenue in its first quarter, with network revenue nearing the level of BNB Chain during the same period. However, ARK expects that recent adjustments to the Gas mechanism will cause the chain's revenue to decline from current levels. The total supply of stablecoins decreased by about 3% quarter-over-quarter to $309 billion, but adjusted trading volume increased by approximately 16% quarter-over-quarter to $781 billion, with the number of monthly active addresses growing by about 39% to 73 million.In the perpetual contract DEX, there is a divergence between open positions and trading volume: the value of open contracts increased by about 76% quarter-over-quarter to $24 billion, while quarterly trading volume decreased by about 16% to $1.4 trillion. Among them, Hyperliquid's open contract value is about $13 billion, accounting for approximately 53%. ARK believes this indicates fewer but larger positions held for longer durations.

first_img On-chain intelligence platform Arkham launches Enterprise

On October 20, the on-chain intelligence platform Arkham announced the launch of Arkham Enterprise, positioned as a high-level analytical platform for professional workflows, with uses including asset tracking, risk scoring, case management, and transaction research. Arkham stated that the platform relies on the world's best tagging set, containing 3.9 billion attribution records, covering $18 trillion in on-chain transaction volume. On the same day, the company adjusted the features of the free platform and launched Enterprise Grants.The data update frequency for both the free and Enterprise platforms has been upgraded in sync. Previously, a large amount of data and tags were updated once a day; after the underlying infrastructure was rebuilt, transactions, new tags, and address balances have been changed to real-time updates, with new transactions appearing without needing to refresh the page. Most alerts supporting on-chain have reduced latency by about 80%, and the database load will also decrease. Tracer 2.0 has been rebuilt for professional on-chain investigations, allowing users to pull counterparties into a network graph from any address and track funds hop by hop; with the addition of bridge support, funds can be followed across supported chains in the same tracking. Visualizer 2.0 presents incoming and outgoing transactions, counterparties, and tokens in real-time through an interactive graph after pasting an address or entity.Enterprise also offers case management and risk scoring. The former allows investigation findings to be grouped by case and form structured records; the latter assesses the risk of addresses and entities based on Arkham attribution data, with indicators covering sanction exposure, mixer exposure, sources of funds, and the number of transaction hops between addresses and marked sources. The adjustments to the free version effective that day include: Tracer 2.0, transaction filtering, complete transaction history, creation of custom tags and entities, and the counterparty section of the browser page is only available to Enterprise users. Free users can view the most recent 100 transactions and retain and edit existing custom tags and entities; the free platform still includes all Arkham tags, Visualizer 2.0, prediction markets, block explorers, and tagging features. Enterprise Grants provide free access to Enterprise for select independent investigators, researchers, and public interest organizations.
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