LD Capital Mentougou BTC Selling Pressure Analysis: Actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market, and distribution to CEX may trigger a panic sell-off
ChainCatcher news, LD Capital published a comprehensive analysis of the BTC selling pressure in Mentougou. Data shows that as of July 12, 138,000 BTC are still in the account addresses of Mentougou, indicating that the selling pressure from Mentougou has not yet actually entered the market. The decline on July 5 was part of the realization of the expected drop due to Mentougou's selling pressure.The article analyzes that LD Capital believes that creditors of Mentougou will sell a portion of BTC, but it is unlikely that they will sell all of it. If the compensation from Mentougou is sold out within a month, the selling pressure faced by the market will have a high similarity to the German government's sell-off, in terms of the quantity and timing of the sell-off. According to the current demand for ETFs, there is not enough support to absorb this, and the price of BTC may further decline.If the compensation from Mentougou lasts longer (2-3 months), the daily amount of BTC entering the market will not be particularly large, preventing a one-time drop. However, due to the ongoing expectation of selling pressure, there may be a period of volatility to digest the selling. This also means that a major upward trend is unlikely to occur in the short term.Currently, only 1,545 tokens from Mentougou have actually transferred to exchanges, while the remaining tokens are still in Mentougou's accounts, indicating that the actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market. When the BTC held by Mentougou is distributed on a large scale to several trading platform addresses, it may trigger significant panic selling, resulting in a sharp drop. In the case of individual sales, due to dispersion and difficulty in tracking and observing, it may not necessarily lead to a significant decrease in price.
