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Robinhood's second-quarter revenue is expected to reach $123 million, potentially surpassing cryptocurrency trading income

According to Dr. Crossroads' analysis, Robinhood's event prediction market revenue is expected to surpass its traditional cryptocurrency trading revenue as early as the second quarter of this year. Data shows that as of June 25, Robinhood has recorded approximately 12.3 billion event contract trades in the second quarter. Based on the usual 1 cent per contract revenue share, this is expected to contribute at least $123 million in single-quarter revenue, pushing the annualized revenue rate (ARR) of this business to $500 million. In comparison, due to the decline in institutional trading volume, its cryptocurrency business revenue in the second quarter is expected to fall below the first quarter's $134 million.At the same time, Robinhood's newly launched prediction market platform Rothera has surpassed 900 million contracts traded in its first week, bringing nearly 60% of potential contract trading increment to the company. Through Rothera's full-stack self-research and vertical integration, Robinhood plans to change the current fixed model where users pay 2 cents per contract (with the company and partner exchanges each receiving 1 cent), reducing the new fee rate to a minimum of 0.6 cents. This move aims to sprint into the top three in the industry through core price advantages while retaining the economic benefits of trade execution entirely within its ecosystem while passing savings on to users.

SBI Holdings acquires Bitbank for $289 million, creating Japan's largest cryptocurrency exchange; bipartisan U.S. senators urge CFTC to investigate Polymarket's "deceptive marketing."

According to BBX data, last weekend Japan's largest financial group completed the most important cryptocurrency acquisition, and U.S. bipartisan senators launched a new regulatory offensive against prediction market platforms. The core developments are as follows:SBI Holdings, Inc. (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 8473) announced the acquisition of the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank (privately held) for approximately $289 million. After the transaction is completed, SBI's cryptocurrency business will surpass all competitors, creating Japan's largest cryptocurrency exchange. SBI Holdings is one of Japan's largest independent financial services groups, already owning cryptocurrency-friendly network bank SBI Shinsei Bank, cryptocurrency asset custodian SBI Digital Asset Holdings, and multiple Bitcoin mining and cryptocurrency venture capital investments. Bitbank is one of Japan's largest spot BTC exchanges and holds an official cryptocurrency exchange license from the Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan. This acquisition marks a shift for traditional Japanese financial institutions from "strategic trial" in the cryptocurrency sector to "scale acquisition dominance," alongside the joint stablecoin plan of the three major banks: Mitsubishi UFJ ($MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui ($SMFG), and Mizuho ($MFG) (targeting March 2027), forming the most intensive wave of cryptocurrency layout in Japan's financial industry by 2026.U.S. Senators John Curtis (Republican, Utah) and Adam Schiff (Democrat, California) reported on June 28 that they jointly sent a letter to the CFTC, urging it to conduct a formal investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket (privately held), citing a "concerning" investigative report regarding Polymarket's "deceptive marketing" practices, which accused it of systematic misleading in user acquisition and risk disclosure. This is the third regulatory offensive against prediction market platforms initiated by Congress this year (previously, the House Oversight Committee launched an insider trading investigation on May 22); the two senators come from different parties, which is significant. For Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD), this investigation poses indirect pressure—Robinhood's prediction market/event contract business (which achieved a record daily trading volume in June) faces the same regulatory qualitative disputes as Polymarket; however, Robinhood's defensive advantage lies in its ongoing application for a CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, providing a clearer compliance path compared to Polymarket.
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