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BTC $77,217.06 -0.01%
ETH $2,120.84 +0.27%
BNB $655.90 +1.21%
XRP $1.36 +1.79%
SOL $85.67 +1.60%
TRX $0.3625 +0.15%
DOGE $0.1056 +1.29%
ADA $0.2458 +1.43%
BCH $378.64 +1.31%
LINK $9.55 +1.52%
HYPE $58.72 +7.27%
AAVE $88.23 +0.27%
SUI $1.11 +1.82%
XLM $0.1480 +3.21%
ZEC $636.91 -3.32%

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Analysis: The bearish pattern for ETH points to $1600, and BitMine's floating loss may exceed $10 billion

As Ethereum continues to weaken, the unrealized loss of BitMine, led by Tom Lee, has expanded to approximately $7.35 billion. Data shows that ETH has dropped over 57% from its peak of about $4,955 in October 2025, and its market share (ETH Dominance) has declined from about 15% to around 10%. BitMine launched its ETH reserve strategy in July 2025 and has continued to accumulate after completing a $250 million private placement. The latest data indicates that it currently holds about 5.28 million ETH, accounting for approximately 4.37% of the total Ethereum supply, making it the largest publicly listed ETH reserve company in the world.Despite the continued expansion of unrealized losses, Tom Lee remains committed to a long-term accumulation strategy. BitMine has stated that it will moderately slow down its purchasing pace but will not abandon its ETH reserve plan, and it expects to hold 5% of the total Ethereum supply by December this year. However, technical risks are still escalating. Analysts point out that ETH is currently near the lower boundary of a typical "rising wedge" bearish structure, and if it effectively breaks below support, the price could further drop to the $1,600 area, representing about a 25% decline from current levels. If this scenario occurs, based on BitMine's average holding cost of about $3,513, its unrealized losses on ETH holdings could further expand to approximately $10.1 billion.Meanwhile, market sentiment continues to deteriorate. On-chain data platform Santiment shows that the ETH social media bullish-to-bearish comment ratio has rapidly dropped from over 2:1 at the end of April to close to 1:1. Analysts state that an increasing number of traders are beginning to view ETH as "Dead Money" (an asset lacking upward momentum).

Multiple CFTC officials who questioned the regulation of the prediction market have been suspended and forced to resign

According to Cointelegraph, an investigative report released by The New York Times on Sunday revealed that several senior officials from the CFTC, who had raised regulatory concerns about Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Gemini affiliates, were subsequently suspended, subjected to internal investigations, and forced to resign. The three companies mentioned have been accused of having business ties to the Trump family.The report stated that then-CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham and her senior advisors intervened to assist the aforementioned companies in obtaining the necessary approvals. By the end of 2025, five officials who questioned or enforced cryptocurrency regulatory laws were placed on administrative leave and internal investigation, without being informed of the specific reasons. After leaving, Pham joined the cryptocurrency company MoonPay, which has a partnership with Polymarket, while her senior advisor Brigitte Weyls became the legal counsel for Gemini Titan—whose application was approved with her involvement.On the enforcement front, the CFTC has withdrawn at least five cryptocurrency investigations, with the number of enforcement actions plummeting from over 80 during the Biden administration to just two during Trump's term. In response, a White House spokesperson denied any conflict of interest, stating that "President Trump only acts in the best interest of the American public."
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