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Forbes: Bitcoin may solve the Triffin dilemma of the dollar and become a global neutral reserve asset

An article in Forbes states that U.S. Vice President JD Vance's previous views on the global reserve status of the dollar have sparked discussions about the long-term contradictions of the dollar system. The article argues that while the dollar, as a global reserve currency, brings financing advantages, it also creates the "Triffin Dilemma": a national currency struggles to simultaneously meet domestic economic needs and global reserve demands.The article points out that the dollar's reserve status drives global capital inflows into the U.S., enhancing the dollar's value, allowing American consumers to access cheap imported goods, but simultaneously weakening the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing and exacerbating trade deficits. The author believes that after the end of the Bretton Woods system and the suspension of gold convertibility in 1971, the dollar system continued to operate through U.S. Treasury bonds and the global dollar market, but the core contradictions have not disappeared. Stablecoins, while able to expand the use of the dollar, still rely on U.S. government debt and cannot completely resolve the issue of reserve assets depending on a single country's liabilities.The article states that while gold has non-sovereign attributes, it faces limitations in transportation, verification, and settlement efficiency. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, lack of need for state credit endorsement, global verifiability, and rapid digital settlement features, may become a new neutral reserve asset. The author suggests that in the future, the dollar can continue to serve as a global transaction and commercial currency, while Bitcoin may gradually take on more roles as a reserve asset, thereby alleviating the global monetary system's dependence on a single country's liabilities. However, the article also notes that Bitcoin currently faces issues such as price volatility, limited institutional adoption, and insufficient maturity of custodial systems. Gold has a financial history spanning hundreds of years, while Bitcoin has only existed for 17 years, and whether it can become a global reserve asset still requires time to verify.

VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.
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