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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 64% (91% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 35.1% (8.9% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 1% (0% before the decision). By December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 14.2% (38.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 36.4% (43% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 33.8% (16.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points is 13.5% (2.4% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points is 2.1% (0.1% before the decision).

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth and unemployment rate forecasts for this year, significantly raised the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next, and also raised the federal funds rate expectations for the next three years.

According to Jinshi News, Christopher Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at the French Foreign Trade Bank in North America, believes that the Federal Reserve's statement has been significantly streamlined, with clear hawkish signals. Interest rates remain unchanged, the tendency for easing has been removed, and there were no dissenting votes. The conclusion of the statement emphasizes the commitment to achieving price stability. Overall, this is a hawkish statement.

According to Jinshi reports, foreign media analysis points out that nearly half of the Federal Reserve decision-makers no longer believe that merely maintaining stable borrowing costs can drive the inflation rate back to the target level of 2%. The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows that decision-makers' views on the interest rate path have shifted towards concerns about rate hikes, with some individuals convinced that the Federal Reserve will need to raise rates. Predictions indicate that the year-on-year increase in the PCE price index is expected to reach 3.6% by the end of the year, the core PCE price index will reach 3.3%, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the pricing of interest rate futures indicates that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 30 basis points by the end of the year, an increase of about 9 basis points compared to before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Strive CEO posted on the X platform that Bitcoin is its minimum return rate standard. The viewpoint is that, measured by simple total return metrics, investing in Bitcoin operating companies is likely to struggle to outperform Bitcoin itself over the next 10 to 15 years. However, supporting the Bitcoin network is important, as Bitcoin is its foundational treasury asset. Part of this is to help Bitcoin operating companies grow and succeed. As the balance sheet continues to expand, it may be considered to invest in Bitcoin companies on a smaller scale relative to the balance sheet to help drive the success of native Bitcoin.

According to Jinshi reports, the market now fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year.

According to Jinshi reports, the economic projections released by the Federal Reserve FOMC show that the median PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 to 2028 are 3.6%, 2.3%, and 2%, respectively, which is a downward adjustment compared to the expectations in March (which were 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2%, respectively).

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC has lowered its GDP growth expectations for 2026 to 2028, with medians of 2.2%, 2.3%, and 2.2%. In contrast, the expectations in March were 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.

According to Jinshi News, Rajappa, the head of U.S. research at Societe Generale, stated that core inflation will become a real concern for the Federal Reserve.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at this meeting is 99.6%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 0.4%. By July, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 91%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 8.9%. By December, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 38.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 43%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 16.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 75 basis points is 2.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 100 basis points is 0.1%.

According to Jinshi reports, Michelle, the head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Chase, stated that this is not an economic environment suitable for interest rate cuts.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Matthew Weller believes that FOMC Chairman Kevin Walsh's first Federal Reserve meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the "dot plot," and the content of the press conference may significantly reshape the market's expectations for the future path of interest rates. The dollar index DXY 99.5 is seen as a key "watershed," which may determine the technical trend of the dollar this week and in the longer term.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $81,435.91 in the "Portugal vs. Democratic Republic of the Congo - More Markets" event, specifically on "O/U 2.5". Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 46%.

According to Coinglass data, the current 8-hour average funding rate for ETH across the network is 0.0001%. Among the current mainstream exchanges, the rate for Binance is -0.0007%, OKX is -0.0005%, Bybit is -0.0005%, and Gate is 0.0007%.

According to Coinglass data, the current 8-hour average funding rate for BTC across the network is -0.0004%. Among the current mainstream exchanges, the rate for Binance is -0.0025%, OKX is -0.0034%, Bybit is 0.0004%, and Gate is 0.0027%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the market Polymarket. A large whale invested $274,999.99 in a single bet on the event "Portugal vs. Democratic Republic of the Congo - More Markets" for "O/U 2.5". Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this bet is 55%.

According to monitoring by Shield, the address of the UXLINK attacker has exchanged approximately 14.6 million DAI for 8298.6 ETH. Subsequently, the attacker deposited 8340 ETH into TornadoCash and bridged 2.64 ETH (approximately 4630 USD) from Ethereum to a BTC address. The attacker currently still holds 10.54 million DAI.

The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center announced that with the adjustment of the digital renminbi measurement framework and the overall upgrade of the infrastructure system, the three major business platforms of the digital renminbi cross-border digital payment platform, blockchain service platform, and digital asset platform have been upgraded to the "Shubi Da" cross-border settlement comprehensive service platform (Cross-border e-CNY Transfer Services, referred to as CBETS). Currently, service agreements for direct participants have been signed with the first batch of 26 financial institutions.