Analysis: The bearish pattern for ETH points to $1600, and BitMine's floating loss may exceed $10 billion
As Ethereum continues to weaken, the unrealized loss of BitMine, led by Tom Lee, has expanded to approximately $7.35 billion. Data shows that ETH has dropped over 57% from its peak of about $4,955 in October 2025, and its market share (ETH Dominance) has declined from about 15% to around 10%. BitMine launched its ETH reserve strategy in July 2025 and has continued to accumulate after completing a $250 million private placement. The latest data indicates that it currently holds about 5.28 million ETH, accounting for approximately 4.37% of the total Ethereum supply, making it the largest publicly listed ETH reserve company in the world.Despite the continued expansion of unrealized losses, Tom Lee remains committed to a long-term accumulation strategy. BitMine has stated that it will moderately slow down its purchasing pace but will not abandon its ETH reserve plan, and it expects to hold 5% of the total Ethereum supply by December this year. However, technical risks are still escalating. Analysts point out that ETH is currently near the lower boundary of a typical "rising wedge" bearish structure, and if it effectively breaks below support, the price could further drop to the $1,600 area, representing about a 25% decline from current levels. If this scenario occurs, based on BitMine's average holding cost of about $3,513, its unrealized losses on ETH holdings could further expand to approximately $10.1 billion.Meanwhile, market sentiment continues to deteriorate. On-chain data platform Santiment shows that the ETH social media bullish-to-bearish comment ratio has rapidly dropped from over 2:1 at the end of April to close to 1:1. Analysts state that an increasing number of traders are beginning to view ETH as "Dead Money" (an asset lacking upward momentum).