The midterm elections have concluded, and Wall Street institutions collectively released bullish signals for the U.S. stock market
The dust has settled on the U.S. midterm elections, with the Democratic Party winning control of both chambers of Congress, and Trump has stated that he accepts the election results. After the uncertainty dissipated, the market rebounded significantly, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 2% in a single day, the Dow Jones index increasing by over 3%, and the VIX experiencing its largest single-day drop since April 2025. Institutions such as JPMorgan, Nomura, HSBC, and Citadel Securities have successively released bullish reports.The core logic is that institutions had significantly deleveraged before the election, and short positions in the stock market were close to a five-year high. Citadel Securities stated that the net position of CTAs in U.S. stocks is approximately negative 3.3 standard deviations, placing it in the 10th percentile since 2018. Retail investors have net bought nearly $33 billion over 22 consecutive trading days since October 5, and the corporate buyback authorization window has also quickly reopened, with new authorizations reaching $1.5 trillion this year.Tech stock valuations are compressing simultaneously. The price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 19.1 times, the lowest since October 2022; the price-to-earnings ratio of semiconductor components has fallen to 13.8 times. HSBC views the Anthropic IPO as a key turning point for a comprehensive bullish trend in tech stocks. Historical data shows that since 1938, the S&P 500 has risen in 95% of the years in the 12 months following midterm elections, with an average increase of about 14%.