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Gray area: The Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a long time, which is bearish for Bitcoin but bullish for Circle and RWA

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market.He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027.Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency depreciation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures.In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%.Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis points increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

Kraken's parent company Payward lays off 150 people to advance business integration before the IPO

According to CoinDesk, Kraken's parent company Payward is laying off about 150 employees. This move is part of the company's optimization adjustments in preparation for its IPO, according to two insiders. A Kraken spokesperson stated in a statement: "We continuously evaluate and adjust our organizational structure to ensure we have the right structure and talent to achieve growth objectives and better serve our customers."Meanwhile, Payward is seeking a new round of financing at a valuation of $20 billion to support its pre-IPO expansion strategy. Recently, the company completed a $600 million acquisition of stablecoin payment company Reap and a $550 million acquisition of digital asset derivatives platform Bitnomial. The previous largest acquisition occurred in 2025, when Payward acquired the U.S. retail futures platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, which also holds a CFTC futures broker license.Payward submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 19, 2025, taking the initial steps toward going public. In March of this year, CoinDesk reported that the company had postponed its IPO plans due to a sluggish market environment, but insiders indicated that the company still plans to move forward with the IPO once market conditions improve. At the Consensus Miami conference, Payward and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi stated that the exchange's IPO preparations are "80%" complete.
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