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The probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours

According to market news, the probability of Polymarket "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours. The event contract rules are as follows: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes the number of vessels arriving at the port in the Strait of Hormuz with a 7-day moving average ("vessels arriving") equal to or greater than 60 on any date during the period from market creation to May 31, 2026, then the market will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no".The daily number of vessels arriving at the port includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered. It is reported that U.S. Vice President Pence will travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday. U.S. President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan.Trump stated that they will negotiate, and if not, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides can reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. He further justified military action against Iran by stating there was no choice and claimed that they would ultimately complete the finishing work.

The U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill may be postponed for review until May, with increasing lobbying from the banking industry intensifying the divisions

According to Crypto In America, the U.S. CLARITY Act has entered a critical negotiation period this week, and whether it will receive the long-awaited committee review in April or be postponed until May will depend on recent progress. The Senate Banking Committee will focus on the confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Walsh at the beginning of the week. After that, the committee must decide by Friday whether to notify the review of the bill in order to hold a vote in the week of April 27.The banking group represented by the North Carolina Bankers Association is lobbying against the stablecoin yield restriction provisions in the bill, urging members to call Senator Thom Tillis's office to request amendments. It is reported that industry groups are also reaching out to other committee members.After more than two months of negotiations, crypto companies and banks reached a compromise at the end of last month, which the crypto industry is generally satisfied with. However, after the White House Council of Economic Advisers report downplayed the risks of stablecoin yields to the banking system, calls for amendments from the banking side have intensified.Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Crypto Council, criticized banks on the X platform for "further lobbying out of greed or ignorance." Senator Tillis proposed holding an in-person "crypto carnival" meeting, but this may extend the timeline. He emphasized that there are still issues to negotiate but expressed optimism about scheduling the review in the coming weeks.In addition to yield issues, the bill also needs to address ethical and DeFi-related provisions. This week's progress will determine the fate of the bill, and the market is highly attentive.
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