Analyst: OpenAI and Anthropic may account for over 70% of the AI revenue of the three major cloud vendors, highlighting the concentrated risk in data center investments
According to technology analyst Ed Zitron, citing estimates from institutions such as Barclays, UBS, and Wells Fargo, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, the three major cloud providers, may see over 70% of their AI revenue coming from OpenAI and Anthropic. Specifically, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler estimates that about 73% of Amazon AWS's AI revenue in 2026 will come from these two companies; UBS analyst Stephen Ju estimates that approximately 28% of Google Cloud's revenue in 2026 and over 48% in 2027 will come from them; Wells Fargo estimates that about 23% of Microsoft Azure's revenue in FY2026 and about 35% in FY2027 will come from these two AI labs.The analysis indicates that AWS's AI revenue in 2026, excluding OpenAI/Anthropic, is expected to be only about 8.5 billion dollars, while Amazon's capital expenditure for that year is expected to reach 220 billion dollars. Google's Vertex AI platform revenue in 2026 is expected to be about 28.3 billion dollars, but during the same period, the computing power expenditure for OpenAI and Anthropic is expected to exceed 35.6 billion dollars. Microsoft's AI revenue in FY2026 is about 34.5 billion dollars, with capital expenditure during the same period of about 115.9 billion dollars. This analysis has raised market concerns about the overbuilding of AI data centers and the sustainability of demand, questioning whether the three major cloud providers should disclose customer revenue concentration risks more transparently. Currently, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have not publicly responded to this.