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Analyst: U.S. Treasury yields rise to the highest level since the birth of Bitcoin, which may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated on social media that Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most severe U.S. Treasury yield environments since its inception. Although historically, the U.S. federal funds rate and the U.S. dollar index have reached higher levels, the current long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 4.5% and 5%. Coupled with the market's rising expectations for another interest rate hike within the year, this has led to sustained high funding costs and a tightening liquidity environment.Analysis suggests that in a high-yield environment, investors are more inclined to allocate to low-risk fixed-income assets, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that rising U.S. Treasury yields are often accompanied by tightening financial conditions, which puts pressure on Bitcoin's price movements. The current market is at a critical turning point, with the risk premium of risk assets relative to long-term Treasuries being compressed.However, if the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer in the future, and investors regain confidence in the bond market, capital inflows into the bond market may drive yields down, thereby expanding the risk premium and improving the investment environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market generally believes that this process may take several months, and its evolution will largely depend on the development of U.S. government policies and the overall economic situation.

a16z co-founder: Support the establishment of trust and safety guardrails for the new era, oppose regulations that stifle AI innovation

Marc Andreessen, co-founder of the venture capital firm a16z, published an article outlining his stance on AI regulation by the U.S. government. He stated that if so-called regulation means creating complex rules by people who do not understand the technology, suppressing innovation through layers of approval and compliance requirements, and ultimately becoming a tool for large enterprises to consolidate market positions and hinder newcomers, then he will firmly oppose such regulation.In his view, excessive regulation often leads to startups being crushed by cumbersome procedures and high compliance costs, causing innovative talent to flow to more open markets, while regulatory agencies themselves continue to expand, ultimately deviating from their original goals.Andreessen specifically criticized the regulatory mindset centered on the "precautionary principle," arguing that if this concept is amplified indefinitely, it could lead society to reject new technologies out of fear of potential risks. Many regulatory measures often arrive late, after fundamental changes in technology and industry have already occurred, making it difficult to address real issues and potentially becoming obstacles to innovative development. He also attributed the relatively lagging state of technological innovation in Europe in recent years to a culture of excessive regulation, believing that regulation should not become a moat to protect vested interests and raise market entry barriers.However, Andreessen emphasized that he does not oppose all forms of regulation. On the contrary, he supports rules that can build market trust, ensure public safety, and maintain fair competition. For example, preventing AI from faking voices to commit financial fraud, preventing deepfake content from interfering with elections, preventing technology from being used to harm vulnerable groups, and ensuring that consumers and businesses can safely use new technologies.In his view, reasonable regulation is like guardrails on a highway and a braking system in a car; it does not hinder technological progress but rather allows innovation to develop in a faster and more sustainable manner. Andreessen stated that what is truly worth pursuing is not "zero regulation" or "heavy regulation," but finding a balance between innovative vitality and social trust, which is also his unwavering stance.Previously, the U.S. government forcibly "recalled" commercial models due to jailbreak risks, leading Anthropic to take Fable 5 offline overnight and publicly protest.

The Coinbase Advisory Council warns of quantum risks to Bitcoin, the community still lacks consensus, and preparations for quantum resistance migration should be initiated immediately

The advisory committee of cryptographic experts led by Coinbase has released a report stating that Bitcoin should immediately begin preparing for potential quantum computing attacks. However, the committee did not take a clear stance on whether to freeze the millions of Bitcoins that could potentially be stolen by quantum computing in the future.It is reported that the committee members include several leading experts, such as Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, who believe that the current focus of the debate is not on how to introduce quantum-resistant signature technology, but rather on how to handle the Bitcoins that have not been migrated for a long time. One viewpoint calls for setting a deadline, after which the existing ECDSA and Schnorr signature schemes for Bitcoin will cease to be supported, and un-migrated assets will be frozen to prevent future quantum attackers from acquiring large amounts of BTC and impacting the market. Another viewpoint argues that this amounts to asset confiscation, contradicting Bitcoin's core principles of "immutability and user complete control of assets," and could set a precedent for freezing assets in the future due to regulatory pressure.The Coinbase advisory committee pointed out that the aforementioned proposals are not mutually exclusive and can be combined, but it refused to take a position on the issue of "whether to freeze legacy BTC," believing that the final decision should be governed by the Bitcoin community. At the same time, it emphasized two points: first, the technical development of quantum-resistant signature migration should be initiated immediately and should not wait for the governance debate to conclude; second, it is necessary to clearly communicate risk information to users to avoid long-term uncertainty affecting the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Galaxy Digital: The Bitcoin cycle low may be higher than before, with a potential bottom of $62,000 to $53,600

According to Cointelegraph, the latest research from Galaxy Digital indicates that due to a lack of speculative activity, the Bitcoin cycle low may occur at higher price levels than in previous bear markets. The analysis suggests that the potential bottom is between $62,000 and the actual Bitcoin price of $53,600.Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn analyzed each top and bottom of the Bitcoin cycle and noted that the four-year cycle is closely related to Bitcoin's historical trends. The decline from peak to trough has steadily narrowed across market cycles, decreasing from early drops of 85% and 84% to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. The current top signal for October 2025 is weak, with only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators signaling, while the widely watched Pi Cycle Top indicator has failed to trigger for the first time.The market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) for Bitcoin peaked at 2.29, while this ratio ranged from 2.93 to 5.91 in previous cycles. The report also found that several key bottom signals are still missing. Currently, only 4 out of 13 indicators have been triggered, and most stronger signals have yet to appear. Thorn pointed out that based on the current cost price of $53,600, Galaxy estimates the fundamental bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000. A more severe "washout" scenario points to $30,000 to $37,000, while a more gradual decline may maintain around $51,000 to $54,000.
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