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first_img Analysis: The demand for AI infrastructure is longer than that of the internet, and general programming still drives ARR

Analysis of the AI semiconductor and infrastructure cycle indicates that the demand for AI infrastructure will continue to exceed that of the internet era, as user penetration and per capita token are multiplied and converted into tokens, significantly raising the ceiling. User penetration has surpassed 50%, with growth primarily coming from the still-early per capita token; the median monthly AI spending per employee in U.S. companies is about $12, which could long-term approach around 10% of white-collar salaries, approximately $1,000 per month, leaving nearly two orders of magnitude of space in between. Unlike the flat subscriptions and extremely low marginal hardware consumption of the internet, the high costs of inference make the marginal cost of a single access higher, requiring greater infrastructure intensity.After developers program, the next ARR growth will still mainly come from broad programming: non-programmers use programming infrastructure to complete non-programming tasks across industries, with programming becoming the default execution kernel for agents. Tasks related to broad programming account for about 60% to 70% of ARR. As of June 2026, Codex accounted for 64% of the total output tokens from Codex and ChatGPT among OpenAI's enterprise clients; since February, Codex has seen a much higher weekly growth in verticals such as law, sales recruitment, and marketing compared to engineering. In Anthropic's revenue, narrow development/software accounts for about 40%, while finance and insurance exceed 20%, with law, life sciences, retail, and others also having considerable shares.The demand-side token growth logic remains, with a high overlap between funders and beneficiaries.

Shanghai police in China have arrested a gang engaged in cross-border illegal operations of virtual currency through a self-built platform, involving 200 million yuan

The Public Security Bureau of Hongkou District, Shanghai, China, recently solved a case involving cross-border illegal settlement and illegal foreign exchange trading using virtual currency, arresting 9 criminal suspects and involving an amount of over 200 million yuan. The suspects, including a person named Li, established a technology company at the beginning of 2024 to seek illegal profits, building two platforms online: "Cross-Border Fund Exchange" and "Virtual Credit Card Issuance and Settlement." They solicited customers both online and offline, illegally conducting exchange and settlement services for virtual currency and cross-border funds, profiting through transaction fees, service fees, card issuance fees, withdrawal fees, and other means.Investigators stated, "The uniqueness of this case lies in the fact that the criminals developed two apps and publicly solicited customers on such a large scale, which has never been seen before. The platforms built in this case are themselves a closed-loop illegal financial service system, with all transactions settled internally on the platform. This mode of crime has a higher degree of scale, a longer chain, and is more deceptive." Reports indicate that on the "Cross-Border Fund Exchange" platform, the criminal gang collected customers' virtual currency overseas and exchanged it for foreign currency, forming a "fund pool," and then realized cross-border settlement through fabricated contracts, achieving the exchange and transfer of virtual currency to RMB. On the "Virtual Credit Card Issuance and Settlement" platform, the criminal gang "cooperated" with several overseas private banks to issue virtual credit cards to customers, who could use the card for consumption, but the repayment process had to be settled in virtual currency; the gang exchanged virtual currency for foreign currency overseas, relying on false cross-border settlements to complete clearing with overseas card merchants.
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