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Goldman Sachs: Cryptocurrency trading has fallen for ten consecutive months, and a turning point may be near

According to ChaoXiang Research, a Goldman Sachs report pointed out that cryptocurrency trading volume fell by 30% in July and 21% in August, marking a continuous decline for 10 months, lasting longer than the median of the previous five cycles. The trading volume has dropped by 75% from its peak, while the cryptocurrency market value rebounded by 21% in the past week. Goldman Sachs believes that if the market value maintains at the current level, a turning point in trading volume may appear.On the regulatory front, 35% of institutional investors view regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle, while 32% believe that regulatory clarity is the primary catalyst. The SEC recently proposed an innovation exemption, and over 10 new digital asset companies received OCC bank licenses in 2026, with more than 15 cryptocurrency firms included in the federal banking system. Cryptocurrency companies are expected to reduce costs by an average of about 5% in 2026, driving an increase in operating profit margins of about 5.8 percentage points.Goldman Sachs holds a cautiously optimistic view for the second half of the year, with sector valuations at the 30th percentile over the past five years. They recommend COIN (target price $196), HOOD ($124), IBKR ($114, Goldman Sachs' U.S. conviction list), and FIGR ($43). The logic for the three types of assets is different: traditional brokerages look for a reversal in September, predicting the market based on the election cycle, while cryptocurrency targets have three catalysts: market value rebound, cost reduction, and regulatory reform.

first_img Micron warns that AI storage walls are intensifying, with HBM accounting for about 17% of the interruptions in Meta Llama 3 training

According to TrendForce, at Hot Chips 2026, Micron emphasized that the progress of AI computing power is faster than storage improvements, and the challenge of the "storage wall" is becoming increasingly prominent. Micron Fellow Raghu Sriramaneni pointed out that the computing power of AI accelerators increases approximately threefold every two years, while the bandwidth of HBM increases by less than double during the same period, and the gap may further widen. The deepening reliance on HBM also brings reliability issues; Micron cited Meta Llama 3 data indicating that HBM failures account for about 17% of unexpected training interruptions. New designs that blur the boundaries between computing and storage may help break through the bottleneck.The expansion of HBM also brings area and supply pressures: the latest generation of packaging integrates two GPUs with eight 12-layer HBM4 stacks, with storage accounting for about 90% of the semiconductor area, more than eight times the area occupied by GPUs; achieving equivalent capacity with HBM requires about three times the wafers of standard DDR5 DRAM. Thermal management has also become a key constraint, with solutions such as liquid cooling and ultra-thin chips being explored.Micron is advancing innovations in interconnect, packaging, and cooling, including SerDes and die-to-die PHY optimized for storage, larger size SiP and advanced packaging with glass substrates, as well as liquid cooling and hybrid bonding, and is developing fusion bonding to reduce thermal resistance and enhance data throughput.
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