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Analysis: The Bitcoin "Realized Market Value Momentum Indicator" has turned positive after 93 days, signaling a recovery in on-chain capital flow

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

Core Lightning, the Bitcoin Lightning Network software, issued an emergency warning due to the discovery of multiple real vulnerabilities in an AI report

According to CoinDesk, the developers of the Bitcoin Lightning Network payment software Core Lightning (CLN) issued an urgent warning to node operators after the team received a large number of AI-generated security reports, revealing several real vulnerabilities. The development team advised operators not to directly shut down the machine power but to restart the software in "--offline" mode, which stops communication with other Lightning Network nodes while still keeping it operational to continuously monitor the Bitcoin blockchain and protect the funds in the payment channels.The Core Lightning team began receiving a large number of AI-generated vulnerability reports since early August, some of which have been confirmed to be valid. Developers will keep the details confidential for two weeks to complete the patch development and plan to release a signed patch version for operators to verify the source. The source code and vulnerability details will be made public after the confidentiality period ends.This is the second AI-related security incident in the Lightning Network this month. Earlier in early August, BTCPay Server experienced a vulnerability that led to the leakage of credentials for some Lightning Network nodes and theft of funds. Additionally, the "Bitcoin Red Team," composed of 16 developers, used AI models to scan 390 Bitcoin code repositories at the end of July, discovering nearly 5,000 issues, 85 of which were rated as critical.

first_img Chainalysis report: CARF only covers 14% of on-chain taxable crypto activities

Chainalysis' latest report shows that the potential taxable on-chain cryptocurrency activity globally will reach at least $457 billion by 2025, while the OECD's Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) covers only about 14% of the on-chain taxable activities. The report estimates that the United States contributes approximately $112.6 billion, with North America leading at $134.6 billion, followed closely by the European Union at $125.1 billion.This estimate includes income generated from realized gains, mining, staking, and lending, as well as payments denominated in crypto assets, but does not include trading activities within centralized exchanges. The CARF will start data collection on January 1, 2026, across 48 jurisdictions, including the UK and EU, requiring eligible crypto platforms to collect customer and tax resident information and report transaction data to domestic tax authorities for cross-border sharing.The report points out that the CARF's design, centered around crypto intermediaries, is the main reason for the coverage gap. Colby Mangels, a former OECD advisor involved in the development of the CARF, stated that the framework is designed around intermediaries that conduct crypto transactions as their business, which leaves a significant amount of decentralized finance activities outside the reporting scope due to the lack of centralized operators or custodial relationships. Mangels noted that tax authorities are focusing on the progress of anti-money laundering regulations, including when DeFi platforms or their operators should be considered regulated crypto service providers.

Viewpoint: The Bessen effect makes it difficult for Bitcoin to return to a true bull market; the main reason for the price increase is short covering

Bloomberg reporter Emily Nicolle stated that Bitcoin recently rose 23% in a single week, marking the largest weekly increase in over three years and ending a period of stagnation since summer. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen proposed expanding the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, prompting market concerns about U.S. debt and dollar depreciation, which drove funds toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. However, after Bitcoin surpassed $80,000, it has stabilized again, and this catalyst alone is insufficient to bring the market back to a true bull market state.Nicolle pointed out that the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar and inflation still lacks sustainability. After Trump reiterated threats of tariffs against China last October, Bitcoin fell over 12% within 24 hours, while gold reached an all-time high during the same period. Since 2026, gold has cumulatively risen over 7%, while Bitcoin, even accounting for the recent rebound, has still fallen nearly 10%. She believes that the simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin last week does not prove that both have the same safe-haven properties, as much of the current crypto market rally is driven by short sellers being forced to cover their positions. Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor called on traders to continue buying Bitcoin during the rise, but his company did not increase its holdings accordingly.In addition, the CLARITY cryptocurrency market structure bill remains stalled due to disagreements over ethical provisions, with the Senate expected to reconsider it by mid-September, leaving limited time before the midterm elections in November. Bitcoin has yet to establish a stable and convincing value narrative, and in daily payments, users still prefer to use stablecoins or cash.

Bitfinex: The recent rise in Bitcoin is mainly driven by spot demand and short covering, with profit-taking potentially being the biggest risk

Bitcoin recently rose to a monthly high, with Bitfinex analysts stating that this round of market activity is primarily driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than new leveraged funds, thus providing a longer duration compared to typical short squeeze scenarios. As investors who bought Bitcoin in the past five months are currently in a profit state, the main risk of the current upward trend comes from profit-taking chips flowing into trading platforms.Bitfinex believes that the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases is an important factor driving the recent market activity. The initial phase of this rise was indeed driven by short liquidations. On the same day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $297.6 million. However, the subsequent price increase mainly came from spot buying. From the position structure, while Bitcoin prices rose by 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) only increased by about 4%, indicating that spot demand and short covering played a major role, while the impact of leveraged funds was limited.Bitfinex pointed out that the $68,000 to $69,000 range is currently an important support level, close to the average cost of buyers over the past five months. If Bitcoin maintains above this level, it will keep these investors in a profitable state, reducing the pressure of previously trapped chips selling during rebounds. In terms of funds, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 1, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about 82%. Bitfinex stated that if fund inflows continue for a week, it will further strengthen the market demand structure.However, Bitfinex warns that the current biggest risk is a large amount of profitable Bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest profit-taking market since 2026. Analysts indicate that if real yields rise again to levels that previously suppressed Bitcoin from falling below $65,000, macro factors could still quickly impact the market.

Gate's Japanese stock trading officially launched, covering approximately 300 stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in the first batch

Gate announces the official launch of its Japanese stock trading service, initially covering about 300 stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), including popular targets such as Toyota Motor, Sony Group, SoftBank Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Nintendo, and Tokyo Electron. Users do not need to open a separate traditional Japanese brokerage account or exchange for yen; they can directly participate in Japanese stock trading on the Gate platform using USDT. Currently, Japanese stock trading has been launched on the Gate Web platform, with the App version set to go live soon.In terms of trading functionality, Japanese stocks share the same stock account and related trading capabilities with Gate's US, Hong Kong, and South Korean stocks, supporting features such as market viewing, buying, selling, position management, and transaction record inquiries. Japanese stocks support trading during Japanese time from 09:00 to 11:30 and 12:30 to 15:25, corresponding to UTC+8 time from 08:00 to 10:30 and 11:30 to 14:25.The launch of Japanese stocks further enriches Gate's global multi-asset trading scenario. Currently, the platform supports over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs, more than 1,500 Hong Kong stocks, over 1,000 South Korean stocks, and about 300 Japanese stocks, providing a total of over 12,800 stock and ETF trading options. In the future, Gate will continue to expand into global core markets and quality assets, promoting the integration of traditional finance and digital assets, and providing users with a more diverse one-stop asset allocation choice.

hot_img Nomura initiates coverage of Yuzhu Technology with a valuation of 25 times the 2027 sales multiple

Nomura Securities has initiated coverage on Yushu Technology, assigning a valuation of 25 times the 2027 sales multiple, expecting revenue growth rates of 101% and 144% for the fiscal years 2027 and 2028, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 122% from 2026 to 2028. The research report highlights two major investment theses: the full-stack mechanical design and self-developed hardware provide Yushu with structural cost advantages, with outsourced components accounting for only 10% to 20% of total costs, and gross margins increasing from 44% in the fiscal year 2022 to 60% in the fiscal year 2025; rapid product iteration allows Yushu to repeatedly lead the industry into new application scenarios, launching four humanoid product series within 26 months.The report also notes that on July 28, 2026, the U.S. FCC included it in the Covered List, and while authorized models can still be sold, new models under development will face restrictions, constituting structural entry constraints. Currently, 73.6% of humanoid robot revenue still comes from research institutions, and catalysts for growth in new terminal markets remain scarce. Nomura suggests paying attention to the progress of the "brain"—the commercialization of WVLA2.0 and the industrial deployment of UnifoLM-X1-0, which may be key to unlocking new application scenarios. The views expressed in this research report are those of Nomura Securities and do not constitute investment advice.
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