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Data: The selling pressure on Bitcoin is easing, with losses down 56% from the peak, but the recovery in demand is still insufficient

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase of Bitcoin has seen the highest historical scale of holder realized losses, with the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses reaching $1.37 billion in February 2026, which is 19% higher than the cycle peak of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have decreased by 56.5%, currently down to about $597 million; meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million.Axel Adler pointed out that the sell-off pressure driven by losses has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen a sustained recovery in demand, with the rate of loss decline still outpacing the rate of profit recovery. Historically, on February 20, 2026, realized losses reached $1.37 billion, setting a historical high for this metric; the highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, occurring on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, the 30DMA of Bitcoin realized profits was $257 million, a decrease of 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion set on December 10, 2024; it was also down 77.7% from when Bitcoin hit its historical high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. This metric had previously hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%.Axel Adler indicated that the selling pressure from profits has significantly decreased, and the amount of coins sold for profit is still at a low level in this cycle, but this does not mean that sellers have completely exhausted themselves, nor does it indicate that market demand has recovered. If realized profits continue to rise above $400 million to $500 million, it would further confirm a sustained improvement in the market. Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has rebounded from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but it is still below the level of 1. Analysts noted that although the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure remains lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's historical peak, there have been 190 days out of the past 291 days where realized losses exceeded realized profits. Axel Adler warned that if the profit/loss ratio falls below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 set on June 30, it could indicate further intensification of market pressure.

Grayscale: The Bitcoin covered call option strategy has an annualized return of about 22% in a sideways market

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that if the price of Bitcoin has formed a solid bottom but is consolidating before recovery, a covered call strategy can generate income through Bitcoin volatility while managing spot price exposure. Grayscale assumes a Bitcoin spot price of $65,000 and an implied volatility of 40%, projected until the end of 2026. Under this assumption, the covered call strategy has an annualized return of about 22%, remaining profitable above a breakeven price of approximately $58,500, and outperforming holding spot Bitcoin alone when Bitcoin reaches about $72,500 at expiration.Pandl pointed out that option premiums provide income and downside protection, at the cost of giving up some upside potential when Bitcoin rises significantly. If the Bitcoin spot price falls below the breakeven price, the strategy will still incur losses, but the extent of the loss will be less than directly going long on spot Bitcoin, with the difference equivalent to the call option premium. Grayscale's Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF, with the ticker BTCC, aims to maximize income generation potential through writing covered calls. The fund does not directly invest in digital assets or initial coin offerings but gains indirect exposure to digital assets through derivatives related to exchange-traded products that hold digital assets.
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