Matrixport Research: BTC Price Rebounds, May Rise Amid Medium to Long-term Fluctuations
BTC has rebroken and stabilized above the 21-week moving average, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,045.The market may gradually weaken its focus on short-term tariff uncertainties. Although the likelihood of a comprehensive recovery of the macro environment is low—tariffs still exist, companies may delay capital expenditures, and consumers remain cautious—there are still moderate re-pricing opportunities in the U.S. stock market, which will support risk assets including BTC.
BTC Stands Firm Above the 21-Week Moving Average, Clear Upward Potential
Currently, the BTC price has risen to $93,653, breaking through and stabilizing above the 21-week moving average. The 21-week moving average is our preferred and intuitive technical indicator for assessing market bullish and bearish trends. BTC has re-broken and stabilized above the 21-week moving average, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,045. This price level can now be seen as a reasonable stop-loss point for long positions. Although summer markets typically exhibit range-bound fluctuations, BTC still has further upward potential, especially given the recent strong performance of gold, which further strengthens the rationale for allocating Bitcoin from a macro perspective.
Gold Becomes the Ultimate Safe-Haven Asset, Showing Clear Vertical Momentum
Since the beginning of 2024, the spot gold price has risen by about 150%. As stock markets, bond markets, and risk asset enthusiasts continuously seek capital safe havens amid uncertain economic conditions, gold has recently shown a vertical surge, entering a short-term consolidation after breaking through $3,500/ounce. Data shows that this rise in gold prices mainly occurred during Asian trading hours, and there may be funds from official or central bank sources shifting from the dollar to other safe-haven assets.
During this upward cycle, the market value of gold tokens has also been continuously increasing, among which XAUm, a gold token launched by Matrixport's RWA platform, is anchored 1:1 to LBMA-certified 99.99% gold bars and supports physical redemption, rapidly capturing on-chain gold token adoption. This week, the first batch of physical gold bar redemptions for XAUm has also sparked market discussions.
The Dollar Cycle Peaking May Provide Support for BTC Price Increase
BTC may still maintain a range-bound consolidation in the near future, but changes in the macro environment, especially the dollar cycle potentially nearing its peak, may provide substantial support for BTC. This trend has already supported gold and may similarly benefit BTC. Global dollar asset holders are continuously seeking asset diversification, gradually reducing their dependence on the dollar, a process expected to last for several years.
BTC Spot ETF Fund Flows as an Important Current Investment Indicator
Meanwhile, the inflow of funds into BTC spot ETFs is expected to accelerate. This could become a key indicator that the market needs to focus on, especially if the inflow accelerates and occurs earlier than expected, which would challenge our previous assumption—that ETF funds would only warm up after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell shifts to a dovish stance. Although this shift has not yet occurred, this indicator remains an important signal that traders must closely monitor.
BTC is currently approaching the upper range of $73,000 to $94,000, and traders may consider a "Stock Replacement Strategy." This strategy involves taking profits on existing BTC positions and converting to a more neutral position, such as using 5% of funds to purchase call options with a strike price of 110% of the current market price (i.e., 10% out of the money). If BTC pulls back, the maximum loss is limited to 5% of the option cost; if the upward trend continues, investors can still enjoy the potential for gains while keeping risks manageable. This is an efficient strategy for maintaining flexible allocation in an environment with significant market uncertainty.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
