Matrixport Market Observation: BTC Strongly Breaks Through $88,000, Decoupling from US Stocks and Advancing Alongside Gold

Last week (April 15 to April 21), affected by macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, BTC showed a trend of fluctuating consolidation. As risk aversion sentiment surged and funds overflowed, the BTC price rebounded significantly. On the 21st, the BTC price rose in tandem with gold prices, briefly breaking through the $88,000 resistance level before retreating. However, with the shift in market sentiment and the recognition of BTC's safe-haven properties, BTC gradually stabilized on the 22nd, reaching a high of $88,465.99, with a maximum weekly fluctuation of 6.44%. Currently, the BTC price is stable around $88,038.

After experiencing declines in the previous two weeks, ETH prices stabilized this week, currently hovering around $1,500 to $1,600, with a maximum weekly fluctuation of 7.8% (data source: Binance Spot, April 22, 14:40).

Market Interpretation

On April 21, U.S. stocks saw a significant pullback after the holiday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 971 points, and all three major indices declining by over 2%. Major tech stocks generally fell, with Tesla down 5.7% and Nvidia nearly 5%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 4.405%, while the dollar index fell below 99, leading to a flow of funds into gold, with New York gold futures rising 3% and breaking through $3,400 per ounce.

BTC Strongly Decouples from U.S. Stocks, "Digital Gold" Narrative Heats Up, Mainstream Altcoins Rise Together

Data shows that in the past 10 days, the correlation between BTC and the stock market has significantly decreased. Against the backdrop of continued pullbacks in U.S. stocks and a weakening dollar, BTC rose against the trend, breaking through $88,500 and reaching a new monthly high, demonstrating a significant decoupling from U.S. stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply due to concerns over the trade war, while gold also strongly broke through $3,400 per ounce, showing a broad rise in safe-haven assets.

Meanwhile, mainstream altcoins such as BNB, SOL, and XRP rose in tandem with BTC, continuing the trend of warming market risk appetite. SOL rose over 5% in a week, BNB broke through $600, and XRP technically broke out of its consolidation range, all showing strong upward momentum.

Federal Reserve Faces Triple Pressure, Policy Credibility Shaken, Market Risk Aversion Sentiment Heats Up

On April 16, the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations saw accepted amounts drop to $54.772 billion, the lowest since 2021, indicating a rapid decline in market demand for short-term dollar liquidity and signs of funding stress. The Federal Reserve faces triple pressure from declining liquidity, unclear policy paths, and challenges to its independence, leading to significant market volatility.

The next day, Powell publicly stated that inflation may deviate from targets for the remainder of the year and admitted a lack of modern experience in policy-making under extreme tariff conditions. He added that if there is a shortage of dollar liquidity, the Federal Reserve would provide support to global central banks. Following his remarks, U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the S&P 500 down 1.6%, the Nasdaq down 2.5%, and the Dow down over 1%.

On April 21, U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Dow falling another 971 points. The dollar index fell below 99, and gold rose 3% to break through $3,400 per ounce, with funds clearly flowing into safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Trump continued to publicly pressure Powell and was reported to be considering his future, raising deep concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence in the market.

Market Highlights

U.S. Economic Expectations Downgraded, Recession Risks Heat Up

A recent Reuters survey shows that U.S. economic growth expectations have been significantly downgraded. The GDP forecast for 2025 was lowered from 2.2% to 1.4%, and from 2.0% to 1.5% for 2026. At the same time, the probability of the U.S. entering an economic recession in the next year has been raised to 45%, the highest level since December 2023.

The survey also indicated that the CPI inflation expectation for the U.S. in 2025 saw the largest upward adjustment since March 2023, reflecting growing market concerns over stagflation risks. The combination of slowing growth and rising inflation will complicate monetary policy space, and the market may further lean towards safe-haven asset allocation.

SEC to Hold Crypto Custody Roundtable, Compliance Pressure Continues to Rise

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it will hold its third crypto policy roundtable on April 25, focusing on the issue of crypto asset custody. The meeting will establish two specialized groups to discuss custody compliance frameworks for brokers and wallet custodians, as well as for investment advisors and fund institutions.

This meeting signals the continued advancement of regulation, especially given the critical impact of custody on institutional entry. Analysts point out that the SEC's focus on custody issues may indicate that future compliance requirements for exchanges and custodial service providers will be further refined, potentially limiting the operational space for institutional investors.

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