Author: Monkey | Editor: Monkey

1. Bitcoin Market

From March 10 to March 14, 2025, the specific trends of Bitcoin are as follows:

March 10: Bears Dominate the Market, Breaking Key Support Level

On March 10, Bitcoin showed an overall downward trend, with bears dominating the market, and the price breaking below the key support level of $80,000.

On that day, Bitcoin briefly rebounded after falling from around $83,000 to $82,327, but then further declined to $80,232. Although the market attempted to rebound, with the price rising to $83,552, the upward pressure could not be sustained, and Bitcoin fell again, breaking below the $80,000 mark, reaching a low of $79,639.

March 11: Rapid Rebound After Accelerated Decline, Intense Bull-Bear Struggle

Continuing the decline from the previous day, Bitcoin further dropped on March 11, hitting a low of $77,703 before briefly rebounding to $79,642. However, bearish sentiment remained strong, and the market quickly broke through the $77,000 support level, reaching a low of $76,905. Subsequently, market sentiment quickly recovered, and Bitcoin rebounded strongly to $81,961, eventually stabilizing around $81,250.

March 12: Intense Struggle Between Bulls and Bears, Increased Short-Term Volatility

On March 12, Bitcoin's price rose to $83,341 and maintained fluctuations above $82,480. Around 10 AM, bears exerted pressure again, driving the price down sharply from $83,962 to $80,896. Despite the significant drop, it did not break below the $80,000 mark, indicating clear short-term market contention.

March 13: Surge Followed by Decline, Once Again Breaking Below $80,000

On March 13, Bitcoin quickly stabilized and resumed an upward trend, peaking at $84,163 before facing resistance and falling back. It then fluctuated downward, breaking below $80,000 again, reaching a low of $79,986, with the market overall showing a pattern of surging and then pulling back.

March 14: Range Fluctuations, New Trend Awaiting Confirmation

On March 14, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of $80,000 to $85,000, gradually starting a new upward trend. As of the time of writing, the price had risen to $81,850, with the market direction still awaiting further confirmation.

Summary

On March 14, the price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall trend remained unclear, with the market still in a range consolidation phase, requiring further observation of subsequent breakout directions. Recently, the market has shown significant volatility, but the support below remains relatively solid. Long-term investors may look for buying opportunities at lower levels while considering macro market conditions and capital flows to assess medium- to long-term trends. It is essential to monitor changes in market sentiment, especially the impact of external macro factors on Bitcoin's trends, such as Federal Reserve monetary policy, market liquidity conditions, and institutional capital movements.

Bitcoin Price Trends (2025/03/10-2025/03/14)

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flows:

• Whale Holdings and Exchange Flows:

Whales acquired approximately 60,000 BTC in the past month, marking one of the most active accumulation phases in recent history, indicating strong demand from institutional and large investors in the market.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant community analyst Darkfost pointed out that whale selling activity on Binance is slowing down, as the exchange whale ratio measuring the top 10 inflows is declining, indicating that the selling pressure from whales is decreasing, and the amount of Bitcoin sold is starting to diminish. However, Bitcoin miners may become a new source of selling pressure. Analysts believe that miners are experiencing market conditions similar to those after the recent Bitcoin difficulty adjustment, which typically precedes large-scale selling by miners (miner capitulation) or may further impact the market.

• Exchange Capital Inflows:

As of March 12, 2025, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was $2.74 trillion, with a total trading volume of $137.92 billion, down 25.1% from the previous trading day, indicating a slowdown in market trading activity.

Technical Analysis:

• Key Support and Resistance:

Bitcoin's price touched a long-term support trend line that has been maintained for 2 years and 4 months, with the weekly chart showing significant lower shadows, indicating strong buying interest at these levels, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal or continued upward movement.

Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his market view on March 10, stating that Bitcoin may retest the $78,000 support level, and if it breaks below, the next key support level is at $75,000. He also noted that there is a significant amount of open interest (OI) in options clustered in the $70,000 - $75,000 range, which could trigger more intense market volatility if the price enters that range.

Overall, Bitcoin has received support multiple times around the $80,000 mark this week, indicating that this level is an important psychological barrier for the market. Above, the $84,000 to $85,000 area has formed strong resistance, limiting the upward space.

• Indicator Analysis:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is tilting downward on the daily chart, indicating that the potential momentum of Bitcoin's price trend is negative.

• MA (Moving Average): Bitcoin's 50-day moving average (MA) is $0.165, and the 200-day moving average is $0.150, both below the current price, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term.

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is flashing red histogram bars below the neutral line, indicating that the potential momentum of Bitcoin's price trend is negative.

Market Sentiment:

On March 11, Bitcoin's price fell below $80,000 again within 24 hours, hitting a low of $76,000, with panic sentiment spreading in the market. As of March 13, 2025, Bitcoin's price dropped 3% to $81,148, with market sentiment low and centralized exchange trading volume down 21%.

Recently, Bitcoin market sentiment has become cautious. Technical indicators show oversold conditions, while the derivatives market remains resilient, and ETF capital inflows are recovering. Macroeconomic pressures and policy changes are affecting market trends, with the U.S. government establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, potentially driving long-term opportunities. In the short term, attention should be paid to key support levels, while long-term investors can focus on policies and institutional behavior.

Macroeconomic Background and Industry News:

• Macroeconomic Data: * *

  • U.S. Economic Data: In February, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%, indicating a slowdown in inflation.

  • Federal Reserve Policy: The market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with three potential 25 basis point cuts within the year.

• Industry News:

• U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: President Trump signed an executive order to advance the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, incorporating Bitcoin into the national reserve framework.

• EU Tariff Impact: Analysts pointed out that EU retaliatory tariffs could lead to a Bitcoin pullback to $75,000.

Overall, from March 10 to March 14, 2025, Bitcoin's price was influenced by multiple factors, including capital flows, technical factors, market sentiment, industry news, and macroeconomic background, showing significant volatility.

3. Hash Rate Changes

From March 10 to March 14, 2025, Bitcoin network hash rate showed fluctuations, as detailed below:

On March 10, the Bitcoin network hash rate fell from 827.66 EH/s to 782.83 EH/s, then slightly rebounded to 846.22 EH/s. After a brief adjustment, the hash rate again dipped to 753.63 EH/s, quickly rebounding to 901.00 EH/s, showing significant volatility overall. On March 11, the hash rate fluctuated between 850 EH/s and 900 EH/s, briefly breaking through 900 EH/s, peaking at 907.63 EH/s. However, this level could not be maintained, and the hash rate quickly fell back to 753.88 EH/s, then entered a new upward channel. On March 12, the hash rate continued the previous day's upward trend, first rising to about 800 EH/s and quickly climbing to 918.26 EH/s. Subsequently, the hash rate briefly stabilized around 910 EH/s, then fell back to 834.06 EH/s, maintaining relative stability within that range. On March 13, the hash rate rose to 923.34 EH/s, briefly fell to 835.68 EH/s, then rebounded to 879.06 EH/s, before starting a downward trend. On March 14, continuing the downward trend from the previous day, the hash rate fell back to 854.78 EH/s and continued to decline, ultimately approaching 800 EH/s. Overall, the hash rate showed significant fluctuations during this period, reflecting frequent changes in computing power.

Hash Rate Data of the Bitcoin Network

4. Mining Revenue

From March 10 to March 14, 2025, Bitcoin miners' earnings were influenced by multiple factors, including Bitcoin price fluctuations, mining difficulty adjustments, and market sentiment.

Bitcoin Network Difficulty Adjustment

According to CloverPool data, Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted upward by 1.43% to 112.15T at block height 887,040 (Beijing time March 9, 2025, 23:58:46), approaching historical highs (114.17). According to Hashrate Index data, the average computing power across the network over the past seven days is 834.27 EH/s.

The increase in mining difficulty means that miners need to invest more computing power to obtain the same Bitcoin rewards, which may lead to a decrease in revenue per unit of computing power. However, as some high-cost miners may exit the market due to declining profits, network computing power may decrease, potentially leading to a reduction in mining difficulty in future adjustments, providing some relief for remaining miners.

Bitcoin Price Trends

As of March 14, 2025, Bitcoin's price fluctuated between $76,500 and $85,000. The decline in Bitcoin's price directly impacts miners' dollar-denominated income, leading to reduced profit margins and potentially putting some high-operating-cost miners at risk of losses.

Miners' Response Strategies

In response to price fluctuations and profit pressures, some miners choose to accumulate Bitcoin, hoping to sell when prices rebound for higher returns. For example, Bitcoin miners in the U.S. have opted to accumulate cryptocurrency in the face of shrinking profit margins to cope with intensified resource competition.

Additionally, miners can maintain profitability by improving equipment efficiency and reducing electricity costs. Notably, long-term holders have increased their holdings by 131,000 BTC in the past month, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin's future value.

Overall, from March 10 to March 14, 2025, the decline in Bitcoin's price and the increase in mining difficulty negatively impacted miners' revenues. However, miners still have opportunities to maintain profitability amid market fluctuations through strategic adjustments and operational optimization. In the future, market sentiment and macroeconomic factors will continue to influence Bitcoin's price trends, and miners should closely monitor market dynamics to formulate effective response strategies.

5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to CloverPool data, Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted upward by 1.43% to 112.15T at block height 887,040 (Beijing time March 9, 2025, 23:58:46), approaching historical highs (114.17T). This adjustment reflects the continued growth of Bitcoin network computing power, as miners on the network invest more computing power to compete for more block rewards. As of the time of writing on March 14, Bitcoin's total network computing power had reached approximately 829.35 EH/s, while the current mining difficulty was 112.15T. Based on current trends, it is expected that the Bitcoin mining difficulty will further increase by about 1.07% to 113.34T during the next difficulty adjustment (approximately in 8 days).

According to the latest data from MacroMicro, the current total production cost of Bitcoin is approximately $84,690.49, with a Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio of 1.01, indicating that the cost for miners to produce one Bitcoin is nearly on par with the market price, resulting in relatively small profit margins for miners. This ratio reflects the operational pressure on miners, especially in the context of significant Bitcoin price fluctuations, making their profitability more sensitive.

In this context, miners need to continuously improve mining efficiency and optimize energy usage to ensure profitability amid fierce competition. In the future, the Bitcoin network's computing power is expected to continue growing, and miners may need to rely more on advanced cooling technologies and renewable energy sources such as solar power to reduce their carbon footprint and energy costs, thereby gaining an advantage in long-term competition.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

6. Policy and Regulatory News

Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Legislation in U.S. States

Texas:
The Texas Senate passed SB-21 with a vote of 25 to 5, allowing the state government to invest in Bitcoin and establishing a Bitcoin Reserve Advisory Committee to ensure investment transparency. Additionally, the state legislature introduced HB 4258, allowing the state auditor to invest up to $250 million from the Economic Stability Fund in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, while allowing local governments to invest up to $10 million in Bitcoin. This bill is expected to take effect on September 1, 2025.

Utah:
The Utah State Senate passed a Bitcoin bill but removed key provisions for establishing a state-level Bitcoin reserve, retaining only aspects related to Bitcoin custody protection.

Senator Cynthia Lummis:

• Reintroduced the Bitcoin Bill: On March 11, Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Bill, planning to purchase 1 million Bitcoins over five years to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Compared to the previous version, the new bill changed the plan to purchase 200,000 Bitcoins annually from "up to" to "must" and strengthened the provision against selling Bitcoin during the holding period.

• Reviewed Stablecoin-related Legislation: On March 13, Lummis, as chair of the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee, presided over the final review of the GENIUS bill proposed by Senator Hagerty. This bill aims to clearly define payment stablecoins, establish clear procedures for institutions seeking to issue stablecoins, and promote responsible innovation while protecting consumer rights.

Representative Nick Begich:
Representative Nick Begich announced plans to reintroduce the 2025 Bitcoin Bill in the House, proposing that the U.S. acquire 1 million BTC and emphasizing individual self-custody rights.

Legislative Progress in Other States:
So far, 24 states have considered establishing digital asset reserves as a tool against inflation. However, due to factors such as Bitcoin's high volatility, five states—Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Pennsylvania—have rejected related proposals.

Democratic Leaders Pressure Treasury to Halt Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan

On March 14, U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Democratic leader Gerald Connolly urged the Treasury to stop the creation of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve plan, following President Donald Trump's pursuit of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve and personal cryptocurrency reserve.

On Thursday, the Virginia Democrat noted in a letter to the Treasury that Trump's push to establish a reserve poses "obvious conflicts of interest." Gerald Connolly stated that Trump did not consult Congress or "seek congressional authorization" to establish the reserve. The letter stated: "Establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve would come at the expense of American taxpayers, enriching the president and his closest allies. I urge the cessation of all plans to establish a strategic cryptocurrency reserve and request a briefing for the staff of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee."

South Korean Financial Experts and Opposition Politicians Call for Consideration of Bitcoin Reserves

On March 10, South Korean financial experts and opposition politicians urged the country to include Bitcoin in its national reserves and develop a won-backed stablecoin during a seminar hosted by the main opposition party, the Democratic Party, in the National Assembly. According to the Korea Herald, this seminar analyzed potential responses to the U.S. initiative to establish a Bitcoin-centered national reserve. The discussion took place just before President Trump signed an executive order to establish Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reserves on Thursday.

Kim Jong-seung, CEO of blockchain company xCrypton, stated at the event on Wednesday: "South Korea needs to respond with clear policies." In addition to Bitcoin reserves, seminar experts emphasized the importance of creating a won-backed stablecoin. Kim warned that if dollar stablecoins dominate the digital economy, South Korea could lose its "monetary sovereignty." He stated: "We need to develop a model that connects dollar stablecoins with won stablecoins for trade transactions."

Kim Min-seok, head of the Democratic Party's Policy Preparation Committee, stated that if the party regains power, it will reshape South Korea's cryptocurrency regulatory framework. New analyst Min Jung from Presto Research noted: "South Korea is generally slower than most countries; we have just approved corporate accounts for cryptocurrency, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are still not allowed for trading. It seems South Korea is just trying to catch up."

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UK Treasury States "No Plans" to Introduce U.S.-Style Bitcoin Reserves

On March 10, market news reported that the UK Treasury stated "no plans" to introduce U.S.-style Bitcoin reserves. Volatility makes Bitcoin less suitable as a reserve asset for the UK.

Nebraska Signs Bitcoin ATM Regulatory Bill

On March 13, Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen officially signed LB609, a bill regulating Bitcoin ATMs and other electronic transaction terminals to prevent fraud and protect consumer rights. The bill requires Bitcoin ATM operators to clearly disclose all terms of use and provide prominent anti-fraud warnings to users. Additionally, users who report fraud to operators and law enforcement within 90 days can receive a full refund.

U.S. Treasury Discusses Bitcoin Reserve Custody Solutions with Three Crypto Companies

On March 14, sources revealed that the U.S. Treasury met with executives from three crypto custody companies this week to discuss how to safeguard the national strategic Bitcoin reserve. Anchorage Digital was one of the institutions involved in the meeting. Anchorage CEO Nathan McCauley stated that Treasury officials inquired in detail about best practices for national Bitcoin reserves and digital asset custody, discussing how custody impacts stablecoins and market structure.

Congressional sources indicated that the Treasury is currently in a research phase and has not formed a clear position but is actively seeking input from industry insiders. The current inclination is for a third-party institution to hold government Bitcoin reserves, with a long-term goal of the government eventually achieving self-custody. As for various seized digital assets controlled by the government, they may still need to rely on third-party custody for the long term. The U.S. Treasury declined to comment on this.

7. Mining News

Cybersecurity Company Kaspersky: Hackers Extort YouTube Creators to Promote Crypto Mining Malware

On March 12, cybersecurity company Kaspersky discovered that hackers were using copyright complaints to threaten YouTube content creators, forcing them to add the crypto mining malware SilentCryptoMiner in video descriptions. This malicious software is based on XMRig and is used to mine cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Monero, and Ravencoin, controlled through the Bitcoin blockchain.

The hackers primarily targeted YouTubers providing installation tutorials for Windows Packet Divert drivers, first launching false copyright complaints against their videos, then contacting creators claiming to be the developers of the drivers, demanding they add malicious links. Currently, one YouTuber with 60,000 followers has been victimized, resulting in over 40,000 downloads of the infected file, with Kaspersky estimating that at least 2,000 devices have been infected.

Kaspersky security researcher Leonid Bezvershenko warned that hackers are exploiting the trust between YouTubers and their audiences, and such threats may spread to platforms like Telegram. He advised users not to trust tutorials that ask them to disable antivirus software and to verify the source before downloading any files to prevent infection by crypto mining malware.

A Small Miner Independently Mines a Bitcoin Block with 3.3TH Power, Probability Below One in a Million

On March 12, according to ckpool developer Dr -ck, a miner successfully mined Bitcoin block 887212 (block hash: 000000000000000000006414aea39be567cf1d5ff6cbf2d77254fe7c714b0d81) using only 3.3TH of computing power with a 480GH Bitaxe miner on solo.ckpool.org.

The miner's address is bc1qaxccz85rx6ywy2xw6ugtm6u37mvew6qqn7lgtd, and theoretically, the probability of discovering a block daily is below one in a million, typically requiring 3,500 years to find one block.

Delaware Court Rules Bitcoin Mining Host Cannot Prevent Tenant Access to Its Miners

On March 14, a Delaware court temporarily approved a temporary restraining order filed by a Pennsylvania Bitcoin mining company against its hosting provider, which had blocked access to its miners due to a payment dispute. The restraining order prohibits the hosting service provider from blocking access and otherwise taking over the 21,000 miners of the miner on the property.

Vice Chancellor Morgan Zurn approved the temporary restraining order filed by Bitcoin miner Consensus Colocation and system owner Stone Ridge Ventures against Mawson Hosting, which provides hosting and co-location services for Bitcoin miners. These companies have disagreements over alleged unpaid fees, agreement terms, and Consensus's relocation plans, which reportedly led Mawson to block miner personnel from entering the site.

These companies also claimed that since blocking Consensus from entering the site on February 28, Mawson has been operating these miners for its own benefit. However, Mawson claimed that under its agreement with Consensus, it has the right to use these miners and has a right of first refusal on their relocation plans.

8. Bitcoin News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings Dynamics (Weekly Statistics)

• Australia Monochrome: As of March 7, Monochrome's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBTC) holdings fell to 303 BTC, a decrease of 17 from the previous day, with a holding value of approximately $42.534 million.

• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): Bitcoin holdings' market value fell below $40 billion, currently holding 499,096 BTC, with a total value of approximately $39.97 billion at the current price of $79,998.5.

• El Salvador: Increased holdings by 6 BTC in the past two days at an average price of $82,308, currently holding 6,112.18 BTC, with a total value of $491.6 million. Over the past 30 days, it has accumulated 41 BTC, continuing to accumulate BTC despite IMF pressure.

• StarkWare: Announced the establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," planning to hold more BTC in the future but did not disclose specific holding data. The company is valued at $8 billion and has invested significant resources in Bitcoin research in recent years.

• Lead Benefit: The Hong Kong subsidiary spent $27 million on February 28 to purchase 333 BTC at an average price of $81,555. Previously, on January 9, it had purchased 500 BTC for a total investment of $47 million.

• Metaplanet: Plans to issue 2 billion yen (approximately $13.506 million) in interest-free ordinary bonds to purchase Bitcoin. Additionally, the company has newly acquired 162 BTC, increasing total holdings to 3,050 BTC, with a total value of 38.452 billion yen.

• Ark Invest: Increased Bitcoin holdings by $82.6 million (Source: BITCOINLFG, March 13).

Grayscale Research Director: Bitcoin's Further Appreciation Does Not Depend on U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserves

On March 10, news reported that President Trump had signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a separate digital asset reserve. In response, Grayscale Investments research director Zach Pandl believes that Bitcoin can appreciate further this year without relying on the U.S. strategic reserves. He expects Bitcoin's price to rise with increased adoption, and Bitcoin will begin to serve as a store of value this year, especially amid concerns that Trump's tariff policies may lead to renewed inflation.

Opinion: Dollar Collapse Fuels Bitcoin Bull Market, but Other Indicators Raise Concerns

On March 10, RealVision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated that a weaker dollar could boost Bitcoin, but two key indicators may raise concerns in the short term. Despite my framework becoming bullish with the dollar's collapse, two indicators still trigger alarms: U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads.

Coutts described Bitcoin as a game between central banks, noting that despite these concerning indicators, the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish. The MOVE index measures expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Coutts observed that while the MOVE index remains stable, it is on an upward trend. Rising Treasury volatility may lead to further tightening of liquidity, while corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks. A significant reversal in corporate bond spreads typically coincides with Bitcoin price peaks. Coutts concluded that overall, these indicators present negative signals for Bitcoin. However, the dollar's depreciation—one of the largest monthly declines in the past 12 years—remains a primary driver in my framework.

Santiment: Large Holders Accumulated Nearly 5,000 Bitcoins in the Past Week

On March 10, Santiment analysis indicated that wallets holding more than 10 Bitcoins experienced several key turning points in the past six months. The slight sell-off from mid-February to early March exacerbated the recent downturn in the crypto market, but since March 3, these large wallets have resumed accumulating nearly 5,000 Bitcoins, while retail investor sentiment remains fearful.

Data charts show several key time points: large holders began accumulating at the start of the bull market on October 12 last year; paused accumulation during the holiday downturn on December 26; resumed accumulation a week before Trump's inauguration on January 12 (when Bitcoin hit a historic high of $109,000); began selling on February 19; and resumed accumulation on March 3 when retail sentiment was most pessimistic.

Santiment stated that while prices have not yet reacted to the buying behavior of large holders, if these key stakeholders continue to accumulate, the market performance in the second half of March may be better than the "bloodbath" seen in the seven weeks following Bitcoin's historic high.

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Analysis: Monte Carlo Model Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Peak at $713,000 Within Six Months

On March 10, Cointelegraph reported that despite the cryptocurrency fear and greed index showing "extreme fear" on March 10, a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Crypto researcher Mark Quant analyzed Bitcoin prices using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the cryptocurrency. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risks through random sampling. It can generate various possible scenarios based on volatility, market trends, and other variable factors. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates Bitcoin's average final price by the end of September 2025 to be $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin's price is expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return).

However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis is as uncertain as "rolling dice." Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the global liquidity index, suggesting that total market capitalization could reach over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.

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Nansen: Bitcoin Pullback to $70,000 Range Part of Bull Market "Macro Adjustment"

On March 12, Nansen's chief research analyst Aurelie Barthere stated that most cryptocurrencies have broken through key support levels, making it difficult to estimate the next key price level. For Bitcoin, the next level may be $71,000 to $72,000, which is the upper boundary of the trading range before Trump's election. Despite a decline in investor sentiment, cryptocurrencies and global markets remain in a "macro adjustment" within a bull market, with the market still in an adjustment phase of the bull market, and stocks and cryptocurrencies have been realized and are being priced, with no actions taken by the Federal Reserve.

Standard Chartered Analyst: Recent Bitcoin Decline Related to Overall Weakness in Risk Assets, Long-Term Bullish to $200,000

On March 12, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that the recent price fluctuations in Bitcoin align with the performance of risk assets such as the "seven giants" of U.S. stocks, rather than issues specific to cryptocurrencies. He pointed out that Bitcoin's decline is primarily influenced by overall market sentiment, and future rebounds may depend on two catalysts: a recovery in risk assets overall or positive news for Bitcoin (such as sovereign purchases by the U.S. or other countries). If the Federal Reserve quickly shifts to cutting interest rates (for example, if the probability of a May rate cut rises from 50% to 75%), it could drive a Bitcoin rebound; however, if the downward trend continues, Bitcoin may fall below $76,500 and test the $69,000 support level.

Despite facing short-term pressure, Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, expecting it to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. He emphasized that current market volatility increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, further reinforcing his long-term bullish view. Meanwhile, Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will continue to impact market sentiment, bringing uncertainty to Bitcoin's trends.

Ohio Gubernatorial Candidate Vivek: Bitcoin is a More Suitable Asset to Fill National Strategic Reserves

On March 12, Ohio gubernatorial candidate and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy stated at the "Bitcoin For America" summit that the returns from holding Bitcoin for over ten years have become the new high-risk benchmark yield. He believes the world is returning to an "era of capital scarcity," contrasting with the massive money printing by the Federal Reserve over the past 15 years.

Ramaswamy explained that institutional investors will again need to consider the issue of "opportunity cost of capital" and establish benchmark yields for low-risk and high-risk investments. He noted that the benchmark for low-risk investments is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, while the benchmark for high-risk investments is the return on Bitcoin over a 10 to 15-year period.

"Bitcoin and what it represents, not only as a financial asset but also as a symbol of the American greatness, is a more suitable asset to fill our national strategic reserves," Ramaswamy stated.

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Analyst: Bitcoin is Approaching a Bottom, Expected to Rebound in the Second Quarter

On March 12, Joel Kruger from LMAX Digital stated that the current weakness in the crypto market is "more of a sell-off effect following news realization and a technical overdue adjustment, rather than caused by other factors." However, certainly, more factors are at play. The uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook has triggered risk-averse sentiment in the market.

Nevertheless, Kruger believes that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom and is expected to rebound in the second quarter. In the previous resistance range between $69,000 and $74,000, Bitcoin "should receive very strong support." Kruger previously stated that Bitcoin's "store of value" narrative may help it break free from the "misleading" correlation with traditional risk assets.

Ark Invest: Remains Optimistic About Bitcoin's Long-Term Prospects, Current Market Sentiment Too Pessimistic

On March 12, despite significant market declines in March, Cathie Wood's investment firm Ark Invest remains optimistic about Bitcoin. On Tuesday, Ark Invest stated in a report: Ark remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, believing that policy changes and technological breakthroughs in areas such as artificial intelligence and robotics will reignite spending and enhance productivity.

Ark Invest also pointed out that regulatory easing and tax cuts are potential major drivers for Bitcoin's recovery from the current market turmoil. The market has become overly pessimistic about the current macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiment.