$92,000, is Bitcoin's "iron bottom" in the short term?

Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, the cryptocurrency market experienced a slight decline on Tuesday.

According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin fell 1.63% in the past 24 hours, currently trading below $96,000, while Ethereum dropped 2.12% to around $2,600. XRP and Solana (SOL) showed little volatility.

In the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by 0.98% to $3.15 trillion. CoinGlass data shows that the total liquidation across the crypto market during the same period reached $233 million, primarily in long positions, amounting to approximately $149 million.

Trump's Tariffs and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Tracy Jin, Vice President of cryptocurrency exchange MEXC, attributed the market's movement mainly to the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates and broader macroeconomic concerns. In uncertain conditions, investors tend to seek safer assets like gold or the U.S. dollar, usually accompanied by a decline in interest in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Matt Britzman, a senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted in a report on Tuesday that history shows trade war concerns triggered by tariff threats often "come quickly and go quickly, but this time, savvy investors are less certain; currency, bond, and commodity traders are hedging their bets, with the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices rising as tensions escalate."

Joel Kruger, a currency strategist at LMAX Group, believes this is more about the market reacquainting itself with Trump's strategies rather than any substantive risks associated with extreme tariff measures.

Joel Kruger stated, "While the new announcement may bring short-term volatility, we believe this risk will not trigger any significant turmoil, and we expect crypto assets to continue to receive good support from medium- to long-term participants looking to buy on dips."

$92,000 Support Level Becomes Key

Checkonchain data shows that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) for short-term holders (STH) has dropped to 1.05.

MVRV is a key indicator for measuring the profitability of Bitcoin holders. When MVRV is above 1, it indicates that investors are still in profit; below 1 means investors are at a loss. The current MVRV has dropped to 1.05, indicating that the profit margin for short-term holders is narrowing. If MVRV continues to decline, it could put more pressure on Bitcoin's price, as it suggests more short-term holders are approaching breakeven.

Currently, MVRV remains above 1, indicating that selling pressure from short-term holders is not significant. However, attention should be paid to the cost basis of short-term holders, which is around the $92,000 level. This price point is a key support level for Bitcoin, reflecting the average cost at which short-term investors purchased BTC. If Bitcoin's price drops towards $92,000, it could trigger more selling, as short-term holders may choose to cut losses. If this support level is breached, market sentiment could further deteriorate, leading to an accelerated price decline.

In addition to the MVRV indicator, liquidity zones are areas where large orders are concentrated, typically acting as support or resistance. Bitcoin has recently tested lower points multiple times to absorb liquidity, currently hovering below $94,000, which is also an important liquidity zone. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin may further test the $92,000 level. If this critical support level cannot be maintained, the selling behavior of short-term holders may exacerbate downward pressure.