BitMart Research Institute VIP Insights | January Market Overview

1. Macroeconomic Perspective

Macroeconomics
After entering January 2025, the global economic landscape continues to be influenced by policy uncertainties. Recent market dynamics highlight the risks that may arise from the U.S.'s aggressive trade policies. Optimism about U.S. economic growth remains high, and its economic momentum is still strong. However, the increasingly tightening financial environment in the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are still important factors that need close attention.

Labor Market
The U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. In December 2024, 256,000 new jobs were added, significantly exceeding economists' predictions of 156,000. This performance capped off a strong year, with an average of 186,000 new jobs added per month throughout the year. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in November to 4.1% in December, showing a positive trend. Although economic growth is expected to slow slightly in the coming months, the strong labor market is anticipated to provide crucial support in the face of economic headwinds.

Inflation
Inflationary pressures showed signs of easing in December. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking an increase for the third consecutive month. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below last month's level and economists' forecast of 3.3%. The tightening of financial conditions is expected to suppress demand, bringing inflation closer to sustainable growth levels. This process is likely to create favorable conditions for inflation to gradually approach the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Stock Market
President Trump began his second term with a comprehensive plan to expand oil production, restrict immigration, and impose tariffs. The "Trump trade" experienced significant volatility as investors assessed a series of executive orders signed by President Donald Trump just hours after his inauguration. As Wall Street perceived Trump's comments and actions on international trade as milder than expected, the stock market generally rose. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond approached a recent peak of about 4.80%, reflecting the market's heightened attention to "sticky" inflation dynamics and potential government tariff announcements.

Earnings Season
The earnings reports from major U.S. banks exceeded high market expectations, with three institutions reporting a doubling of fourth-quarter earnings year-on-year. Analysts currently expect a growth of about 12% in earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 index in the fourth quarter of 2024. Despite slightly mixed macroeconomic signals, the overall picture still shows strong economic momentum. GDP forecasts have been revised upward, monetary policy is gradually easing, and risk sentiment is positive. We expect limited upside potential for this forecast in the current quarter. Last week's strong bank performance set a good tone for the earnings season.

Summary
The economic development in the U.S. and globally remains highly uncertain. The government policies under President Trump are a key source of this unpredictability, with the scope, timing, and intensity of policy implementation being important variables. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical challenges, including the Ukraine conflict and dynamic changes in the Middle East, may impact the broader global landscape.
As the 47th President of the United States, Trump's inauguration marks the beginning of a rapid shift in policy. Reports indicate that he has prepared over 100 executive orders, far exceeding the 17 orders signed by his predecessor, President Biden, on his first day. While significant macroeconomic legislation may take months to materialize, the initial policy landscape is expected to change rapidly.

2. Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market

Cryptocurrency Data Analysis

Trading Volume & Daily Growth Rate
According to CoinGecko data, as of January 24, the trading activity in the cryptocurrency market has declined over the past month, with an average daily trading volume of $174.9 billion, down 40% from the previous period. On January 20, trading activity rebounded due to the impact of Trump's inauguration.

Total Market Capitalization & Daily Growth
According to CoinGecko data, as of January 24, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.73 trillion, an increase of 10% from last month. Among them, BTC's market share is 57.4%, and ETH's market share is 11.3%. The slight decline in ETH's market share is influenced by weak prices, low market sentiment, and strong competition from Solana.

New Popular Tokens in January
Among the popular tokens launched in January, TRUMP saw its market capitalization skyrocket after being listed on DEX, reaching a peak of $14.74 billion, setting a record for the fastest token to be listed on exchanges. The next day, the Trump family token MELANIA was also launched, sparking market discussions about the "strategic harvesting" of the Trump family and triggering a wave of FOMO among celebrity meme enthusiasts.

| Token | Token Fullname | CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap | Exchange | |---------|-----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | TRUMP | OFFICIAL TRUMP | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/official-trump/ | BiMart, Binance, OKX, Coinbase, Bybit, Bitget, HTX, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex, Poloniex | | MELANIA | Official Melania Meme | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/melania-meme/ | BiMart, Bitget, HTX, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | BIO | Bio Protocol | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bio/ | BiMart, Binance, OKX, Bitget, HTX, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc, Phemex | | PLUME | Plume | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/plume/ | BiMart, Bybit, HTX, Bitget, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc | | SONIC | Sonic SVM | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/sonic-svm/ | BiMart, OKX, Bybit, Bitget, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | BUZZ | Hive AI | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/hive-ai/ | BiMart, Bitget, HTX, Gate, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex, Poloniex | | SOLV | Solv Protocol | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solv-protocol/ | BiMart, Binance, Bybit, Bitget, HTX, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc, Lbank, Phemex | | GPS | GoPlus Security | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/goplus-security/ | BiMart, Bybit, Bitget, Kucoin, Gate, Mexc, Phemex |

3. On-Chain Data Analysis

3.1 Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF Inflows and Outflows
In January, BTC ETF inflows reached $14.16 billion.

In mid-December, BTC prices were not significantly affected after a brief pullback, and the stimulus effects of Trump's economic policies continued. On January 20, with Trump's official inauguration, BTC prices were again strongly driven, achieving significant gains. In January, BTC ETF inflows continued to increase, totaling $14.16 billion, pushing BTC prices from $93,425 to $102,052, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. Additionally, on January 20, BTC prices further surged to a historic high of $108,228, reflecting strong market confidence in BTC amid the current macroeconomic environment and increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

ETH ETF Outflows of $369 Million in January
Compared to BTC, ETH's market performance this month remains sluggish. ETH ETF funds saw a slight outflow of $369 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%, with prices dropping from $3,332 at the beginning of the month to $3,278, a decline of 1.62%. On December 17, when BTC reached a historic high of $108,135, ETH was priced at $4,078. When BTC set a new record on January 20, ETH prices had fallen to $3,439, indicating a continued downward trend. Even with the market volatility triggered by Trump's inauguration, this positive news did not change the cautious investment attitude towards the Ethereum ecosystem.

3.2 Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows
Stablecoin Inflows of Approximately $5.492 Billion in January ------ Mainly from USDC, USDT, DAI

The stablecoin market continued its strong growth momentum in January, particularly driven by the stimulus effects of Trump's economic policies. Among them, USDC became the main driver of growth this month, with circulation increasing by approximately $4.3 billion, capturing a significant share of the stablecoin market expansion. The favorable conditions surrounding Trump's official inauguration prompted a large influx of U.S. funds into the cryptocurrency market.

4. Price Analysis of Major Currencies

4.1 BTC Price Change Analysis
BTC prices have surpassed $106,000, but bulls are struggling to break through the historical high of $109,588. Short-term sentiment has been dampened as President Donald Trump has yet to issue specific executive orders regarding strategic Bitcoin reserves.

On January 23, BTC rebounded from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $100,831, indicating positive market sentiment. Buyers will again attempt to push the price above the historical high of $109,588. If successful, BTC/USDT may accelerate upward, targeting $126,706. On the downside, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $98,839 is a key support level. If this level is breached, prices may drop to the strong support level of $90,000. Buyers are expected to defend the support zone between $90,000 and $85,000 vigorously, as a breach of this area could signal a deeper correction, targeting $73,777.

4.2 ETH Price Change Analysis
ETH rebounded from the neckline of a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on January 23, indicating that bulls are attempting to prevent the formation of a bearish pattern. ETH/USDT may rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3,503, which is an important resistance level to watch in the short term. If buyers push the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could soar to $3,745. Conversely, if the price falls back from the 50-day SMA, it indicates that bears are still selling on rallies. This would increase the risk of breaking below the neckline, potentially causing prices to plummet to $2,850.

4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis
Solana has broken through the resistance level of $260, indicating that bulls are attempting to establish dominance. There is slight resistance at $274, but this level is expected to be breached. If buyers push the price above $274, SOL/USDT may surge to $295. Although this level may pose strong resistance, if overcome, the next target will be $375. The 20-day EMA at $228 is a key support level on the downside. If the price falls below and closes under the 20-day EMA, it indicates that bulls have given up, and prices may drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $211.

5. Hot Events of the Month

5.1 The Trump Couple Launch Personal Cryptocurrency, Sparking Market Debate
On January 18, former U.S. President Trump officially launched his personal meme token "TRUMP," generating strong attention and excitement in the market. It is reported that 80% of the token's supply is controlled by Trump's affiliated companies, CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, with the latter directly benefiting from the revenue generated by token trading activities. According to CoinGecko data, "TRUMP" started trading at an opening price of $0.1824, and within just 12 hours, it surged over 15,000%, reaching approximately $30. Subsequently, the price of TRUMP further climbed, peaking at $75.35, with a cumulative increase of 41,200%, and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) approaching $80 billion, making it one of the most attention-grabbing phenomena in the recent cryptocurrency market.

On January 20, Trump's wife, Melania Trump, also launched her cryptocurrency "MELANIA." After its launch, the token quickly sparked market discussions, with its price briefly reaching $13, and the FDV exceeding $13 billion. However, this excitement lasted only a day, as the price of MELANIA rapidly fell back to $4.14, a decline of over 215%. More significantly, the issuance of MELANIA shook market confidence, leading to a massive sell-off of TRUMP, which directly caused its price to drop nearly 40%. This token frenzy also had a notable impact on the blockchain technology layer. Due to a sudden surge in trading volume, Solana experienced temporary network congestion, causing the price of USDT within its ecosystem to briefly decouple, further exacerbating market turmoil.

Although the cryptocurrencies launched by the Trump couple brought unprecedented traffic and attention to the industry, they were also accompanied by significant controversy. Their actions have been criticized for blurring the lines between public office and commercial interests, and there are even suspicions of exploiting public positions for profit. This could not only damage their personal reputations but also intensify the regulatory pressures facing the cryptocurrency industry.

5.2 The Trump Family's Cryptocurrency Project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Gains Traction, Sparking New Interest After Presale Ends
Following the launch of the "Meme" token on January 20, interest in the Trump family's cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) rapidly increased. The official announcement stated that the WLFI token presale has ended, with a total of 20 billion tokens issued at a price of $0.015 each, raising a total of $300 million. Notably, cryptocurrency investor Justin Sun spent 15 million USDT to purchase 1 billion WLFI tokens. After the first round of presale ended, the WLFI team quickly announced an additional 5% supply increase for the second round of presale, raising the token price to $0.05. This strategy further attracted widespread market attention, indicating the project's popularity.

Additionally, to commemorate Trump's official inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) announced a series of significant strategic asset purchase plans on inauguration day, including: $47 million in ETH, $47 million in wBTC, $4.7 million in Aave, $4.7 million in LINK, $4.7 million in TRX, and $4.7 million in ENA.

Through the personal tokens "TRUMP" and "MELANIA," as well as the family project WLFI, Trump and his family have stirred up unprecedented excitement in the cryptocurrency industry. However, the long-term impact of these initiatives remains to be seen, and the market is watching to see if this will trigger stricter industry regulations and policy scrutiny in the future.

5.3 Trump Takes Office and Officially Signs Cryptocurrency Executive Order
On January 24, President Trump officially signed the executive order titled "Strengthening America's Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." This move not only demonstrates the U.S. government's high regard for the digital asset industry but also lays a clearer policy foundation for the future development of the industry. The core contents of this executive order include the following points:

• Promoting the Responsible Development of Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology
  Encouraging various economic sectors to responsibly develop and apply digital assets, blockchain, and related technologies, further promoting technological innovation and economic integration.

• Revoking Restrictive Policies
  The order cancels some outdated policies, with the most notable being the formal repeal of the SAB-121 policy. SAB-121 previously required companies holding cryptocurrency assets to account for these assets on their balance sheets and disclose related risks. This requirement not only increased the costs for companies holding cryptocurrency assets but also limited their ability to provide cryptocurrency custody services. The repeal of this policy will significantly reduce the operational burden on relevant enterprises.

• Establishing a Presidential Digital Asset Market Working Group
  The executive order mandates the establishment of a dedicated working group to promote the formulation of a federal regulatory framework within 180 days to regulate the issuance and operation of digital assets within the U.S. Additionally, the working group will assess the feasibility of establishing a national digital asset reserve and propose relevant standards.

• Clearly Prohibiting the Issuance and Promotion of CBDCs
  The order explicitly prohibits the development, issuance, or promotion of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and no federal agency may take any related actions within or outside the U.S. to ensure the decentralized nature of the financial system and market freedom.

The signing of this executive order fulfills many of Trump's campaign promises regarding the cryptocurrency market and demonstrates his high level of attention and support for the digital finance industry. A clear regulatory framework and policy direction will provide a more stable development environment for the digital asset industry, attracting more capital and innovative forces into the U.S. market.

5.4 AI Agent Sector Experiences Strong Rebound After January's Volatility, DeFAI Becomes a New Growth Hotspot

In January, the AI Agent sector experienced significant market volatility, with mainstream tokens generally undergoing substantial corrections. Core tokens in the Base ecosystem and Solana ecosystem, such as VIRTUAL, ai16z, and GAME, saw declines of 20%-50% within a week. Nevertheless, the market demonstrated strong rebound resilience after the deep correction. According to Cookie.fun data, the total market capitalization of the AI Agent market fell from $16.13 billion at the beginning of January to a low of $11.57 billion, followed by a noticeable rebound in the middle of the month. This correction not only provided the AI Agent sector with an opportunity to catch its breath and adjust but also validated the sustainability of its long-term narrative. As one of the core hotspots in the Web3 field for 2025, the AI Agent sector is welcoming new growth opportunities. In this context, DeFAI (AI + DeFi) is gradually becoming an important breakthrough direction in the AI Agent ecosystem, especially in the areas of autonomous DeFi agents and market analysis and forecasting, attracting widespread attention. On January 13, when Bitcoin prices significantly fell below $90,000, DeFAI-related tokens, on the contrary, surged by 38.73%, with GRIFT, BUZZ, and ANON showing particularly notable increases.

6. Outlook for Next Month

6.1 Changes and Impacts of Cryptocurrency Policies After Trump's Inauguration
After Trump's inauguration, with the formal signing of the cryptocurrency executive order, changes in the leadership of regulatory agencies such as the SEC, and the establishment of the Digital Asset Committee, the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. will undergo significant adjustments. Here are the core changes to watch:

• Construction and Promotion of the Cryptocurrency Asset Regulatory Framework
  The cryptocurrency executive order signed by Trump requires the formulation of a federal digital asset regulatory framework within 180 days, focusing on stablecoins, cryptocurrency issuance, and trading market structure. This framework will directly impact market access, compliance costs, and operational models, and may become an important trendsetter for the global cryptocurrency industry. In this context, areas such as DeFi, RWA, and stablecoins, which have previously faced strong regulatory suppression, may welcome new development opportunities.

• Feasibility of Strategic National Cryptocurrency Reserves
  The executive order requires an assessment of the feasibility of establishing a national digital asset reserve and considers using cryptocurrencies legally seized by federal law enforcement agencies as a source of reserves. Currently, the main cryptocurrencies held by the U.S. government include BTC, ETH, and USDT, and the reserve scope may be further expanded in the future. This move could enhance the global financial status of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and strengthen their credibility as a store of value.

• Impact of the Repeal of the SAB-121 Act
  The repeal of SAB-121 will lower the threshold for banks to participate in cryptocurrency custody, accelerating the integration of traditional financial institutions with the cryptocurrency industry. Banks will be able to legally custody cryptocurrency assets, which are far more secure and compliant than on-chain lending platforms, bringing new lending and financial service models to the cryptocurrency market. In the future, banks may become the main providers of cryptocurrency financial services, offering custody, lending, and other compliant financial services, lowering market access thresholds, enhancing fund security, and attracting more traditional capital into the cryptocurrency market.

6.2 Solana Prices Reach New Highs, but Uncertainty Remains for ETF Approvals in the Short Term
On January 19, with Trump's official inauguration and the overall market recovery, SOL prices broke through historical highs, reaching $286. Investors are betting on the possibility of cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory policies from the Trump administration, thereby increasing the likelihood of Solana ETF approvals. According to Bloomberg, the SEC will face the first Solana ETF approval deadline on January 25, needing to decide on the Solana ETF applications submitted by VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise. However, the SEC previously sued Coinbase and Binance in 2023, accusing them of trading cryptocurrencies, including SOL, as unregistered brokers and classifying Solana as a security, which poses significant obstacles to the approval process for Solana ETFs.

Despite SOL's recent surge due to heightened market sentiment, the likelihood of Solana ETF approvals in the short term remains low. If the SEC delays approval or rejects the applications, the market may cool its expectations for Solana ETFs, leading to a certain degree of price correction for SOL. However, in the long run, with adjustments in the regulatory environment, support from the Trump administration for the cryptocurrency industry, and successful precedents of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Solana ETFs still have a high likelihood of being launched. In the future, changes in regulatory policies and market reactions to ETF expectations will be key factors influencing Solana's price movements.

BitMart Research Institute
The BitMart Research Institute focuses on research and analysis in the digital asset field, aiming to provide users with in-depth market insights and interpretations of cryptocurrency industry trends.
Risk Warning:

All cryptocurrency investments, including yield products, are highly speculative and involve significant risks. Past performance of products does not guarantee future results. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and before making any investment decisions, you should carefully assess whether trading or holding digital currencies is suitable for you based on your personal investment goals, financial situation, and risk tolerance, and consult a professional financial advisor. The information in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment, legal, or tax advice. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses resulting from the use of this information.