Alliance DAO Founders Dialogue: Solana Will Ultimately Prevail, Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) May Become the New ETF Moment

整理 & 编译：深潮 TechFlow

Guests: Imran Khan, Founder of Alliance DAO; Qiao Wang, Founder of Alliance DAO

Podcast Source: Good Game Podcast

Original Title: On Consumer Crypto | EP 70

Release Date: February 7, 2025

Background Information

Imran and Qiao engaged in an in-depth conversation with Iljia and Richard from Tensor, discussing consumer-facing cryptocurrencies and other related topics, providing entrepreneurs with core insights into cryptocurrencies.

Key topics include:

• Market Analysis

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) in progress - David Bailey

• The profound impact of government policies on the economy

• The proliferation of AI and future trend predictions

• Vine & JellyJelly

• The future prospects of tokenization in startups

• Clout and Tribe

• Tensor Team: Richard and Ilja's vision

• Tokenization strategies as market entry points

• The combination of Memecoin and attention economy

• The current state of growth for Vector

• Qiao's annual experiment sharing

• The trend of developers migrating from Ethereum to Solana

• User profile analysis across different blockchains

• The ultimate form of blockchain technology outlook

• Coinbase's strategic layout

• Discussion on "Blast should have been Hyperliquid"

Market Analysis

Imran: A lot has happened in recent weeks. The market has shown a continuous downward trend over the past month, and I feel our sentiment is highly aligned with the market performance.

Qiao: The market does seem a bit weak.

Imran: Overall, the market is digesting the significant news released by Trump and the subsequent liquidity injection. As for the short-term market trend, I can't provide a clear judgment, but I remain optimistic about the market in the medium to long term.

Qiao: I think the market may maintain a sideways consolidation in the short term. In fact, there have been many positive news items in the past two weeks, such as the executive order supporting cryptocurrencies, the repeal of the SAB act, the advancement of the stablecoin bill, and some policy speeches regarding cryptocurrencies. However, despite so much positive news, the market has hardly reacted. This situation reflects the market's lukewarm response to these positive developments. Nevertheless, from a macroeconomic perspective, I believe the overall economic situation is still quite good.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) in Progress

Qiao: David Bailey mentioned that the current market performance is misleading. He tweeted that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) plan is progressing at today's press conference. This is a top priority led by DJT. They are gathering top officials from the nation and plan to develop a complete plan within the next 80 days. Notably, half of the working group consists of individuals who have achieved great success in relevant fields. The SBR plan is gradually being implemented. If SBR is indeed implemented within the next 80 days, then the current market pricing of it is clearly severely underestimated. This potential impact cannot be fully reflected through existing market mechanisms.

Qiao: This reminds me of the Bitcoin ETF launch. At that time, many believed that the Bitcoin ETF was bad news and advised selling. But the reality was quite the opposite; the launch of the Bitcoin ETF actually opened a new door for financial institutions and traditional investors to enter the Bitcoin market, especially for those from traditional finance and older investors, right?

The situation with SBR is very similar. If the Strategic Bitcoin Reserves plan can be successfully implemented, it will mark formal government involvement. Not just the U.S. federal government, but also state governments and even governments from other countries may choose to cooperate with the U.S. or at least try to keep up with this trend. This would create a new group of net buyers of Bitcoin in the market, who are currently completely absent. Meanwhile, the movements of sovereign wealth funds are also worth noting, as they could become an important force driving this trend.

Imran: Additionally, the Trump administration is planning to create a sovereign wealth fund. It is reported that this fund will be operated by Cantor Fitzgerald's Lutnik, who has made significant investments in the cryptocurrency space, particularly in Bitcoin. If he gets involved and leads this sovereign fund, things could get very interesting.

From my perspective, the current market is a bit chaotic. We just experienced a massive meme bubble, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high, but at the same time, there are these extremely optimistic messages coming out, and the market seems unable to respond clearly to this information.

Qiao: I don't think the market is really confused. It's just that the market has already reflected most of the positive news in the prices.

If the SBR plan really comes to fruition, we will see a significant market rally. But before that, I think the market may remain sluggish for a while.

Imran: I understand, this should yield results within 80 days, right? They should announce relevant news within 80 days. So I think the current sluggish state of the market will soon improve.

Qiao: However, for those relying on OPM (Other People's Money), Standard Bank (with assets under management of $870 billion) has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $500,000 before Trump's presidency ends. What do you think? $500,000? $500,000 is almost one-third of the total market value of gold, or even more than half of the gold market value.

In fact, if Bitcoin really rises to $500,000, I wouldn't be surprised. On the contrary, the price of gold might see a certain degree of decline because funds might flow from gold to Bitcoin.

Imran: Did you see how gold performed today or yesterday? What do you think is driving all this? Do you think it's just the uncertainty of global tariffs?**

Qiao: Gold has reached a historical high. I feel it's mainly due to the enormous uncertainty surrounding Trump. During his first term, it could almost be described as "chaos." He engaged in trade wars with all countries, including U.S. allies. Gold is not only a tool for hedging chaos but is also used to hedge against the risks of the U.S. massive debt.

The Profound Impact of Government Policies on the Economy

Imran: I did some simple calculations. The U.S. government is expected to reduce its fiscal deficit by about $1 trillion each year. Currently, the annual deficit in the U.S. is about $2 trillion. If they can really reduce $1 trillion, the national fiscal deficit will gradually decline in the long run, which will have profound effects on interest rates and inflation, even without direct intervention from the Federal Reserve.

Qiao: And the Federal Reserve may be reconsidering their strategy because all these government impacts will change their pace of rate cuts.

"I'm Glad Powell Didn't Cut Rates" - Trump

Imran: Trump's recent change in attitude is also quite interesting. A few days ago, he tweeted that Powell needed to cut rates immediately, even stating, "He must cut rates no matter what." But a few days later, he tweeted: "I'm glad Powell didn't cut rates; I have great respect for his decision." This shift in attitude is quite intriguing, but I'm not sure what deeper meaning lies behind it.

Qiao: In the short term, a reduction in government spending may bring about deflationary pressure, because this effectively withdraws some funds from the economy. Government spending is a crucial component of the economy, which is basic knowledge in macroeconomics. But at the same time, tariff policies may bring inflationary pressure. If they restore tariffs, it will undoubtedly push inflation up.

Imran: I feel this is more like a negotiation strategy for Trump. He employed similar tactics in 2017 to force parties to renegotiate agreements. For him, these news items are merely tools. He secured 20,000 law enforcement personnel from the Mexican government to strengthen border control, which theoretically could reduce the influx of drugs and illegal immigrants. Now, another 10,000 law enforcement personnel from Canada are deployed at the Washington border. Meanwhile, I've also seen news reports indicating that Canada's drug smuggling management is relatively weak, and many drug trafficking organizations have reorganized in Canada and are using channels there to transport drugs to the U.S. These measures are undoubtedly beneficial for the U.S. economy. So, I believe Trump's goal has always been to achieve his deals through pressure.

He imposed tariffs on China, and China responded, "We will also impose tariffs on you." So, the U.S. Postal Service has now stopped providing services for platforms like Temu and similar Alibaba businesses. This led to a 2% to 5% drop in the stock prices of these companies. In my view, Trump is simply using these means to force the other party to act according to his demands. While this strategy may bring market volatility in the short term, in the long run, he often achieves his goals.

Qiao: I wouldn't advise anyone to trade based on these short-term news items. Outside of Trump's core circle, no one really has the advantage of mastering this information.

The Proliferation of AI and Future Trend Predictions

Imran: I believe that almost every startup in the future will use crypto and AI in some form. These technologies may be embedded in products in various ways, so companies no longer need to emphasize that they are "crypto startups" or "AI startups." They will simply be referred to as "startups," and these technologies will become one of the core features of their products. This trend also opens up more possibilities for innovation in the fields of AI and crypto for startups. In fact, many of the startup applications we receive do not even involve crypto at all but focus on AI.

What do you think is driving this phenomenon? I read an application a few days ago where someone said, "Although we are an AI startup, I see some potential applications for crypto and want to explore them." He had no understanding of crypto but still wanted to try, which I found very interesting. This seems to validate our point: every startup will find that crypto and AI ultimately are just features within their core products.

Qiao: Over the past two years, many have tried to predict the convergence of AI and crypto, but many ideas seem forced. For example, some hope to use crypto technology to train AI or use AI to solve some problems in the crypto space, but these attempts have not had much practical significance. I think a more realistic scenario is that people will develop products that use large language models (LLMs) in some features and introduce crypto in others. This integration is very natural, and the technology will be hidden in the background, so end users may not even need to know about the existence of these features. They just need to enjoy a better user experience without needing to understand whether the product is AI-driven or crypto-driven.

Imran: There are two mainstream views on AI. One believes that AI will become authoritarian like in China, while the other believes that AI will completely replace human jobs. But in reality, no one has really considered the middle path: how AI can improve our efficiency in daily life and optimize our business models. Similarly, technologies like AI and crypto will gradually become part of product features rather than standalone selling points. They will enhance user experiences tenfold, but users may not even need to know about the existence of the technology. This trend makes me realize that we don't need to deliberately distinguish between "crypto startups" or "AI startups"; their essence is tools for enhancing productivity. People always tend to go to extremes, but in reality, the future is more likely to be a state between the two.

DeepSeek

Imran: A few months ago, when DeepSeek was just launched, we discussed its potential impact. But recent news has garnered more attention, such as their claim of completing a project with just $6 million. However, opinions on this matter vary widely. Some believe that achieving this with only $6 million is impossible, and there may be more resources behind DeepSeek.

Qiao: Regardless, one thing is clear: the costs of AI reasoning and model training are rapidly decreasing. This is good news for application layer development.

A similar trend is also observed in the cryptocurrency space. We notice that as infrastructure costs decrease, the crypto industry is gradually shifting from the infrastructure layer to the application layer.

Because whether in AI or cryptocurrency, the reduction in infrastructure costs is driving more innovation at the application layer.

Discussing Recent Vine & JellyJelly

Imran: Vine and JellyJelly are two of the most interesting things that have happened recently.** This also reaffirms the potential of tokenization, which may become an important opportunity in the crypto space. I refer to it as "application tokens" or memes, which are a subcategory of tokens.

Recently, there are two interesting stories. The first is that after Trump launched his personal token, people began to view tokenization as a novel marketing strategy. The founder of Vine sold Vine to Twitter for $30 million in 2018.

Elon Musk has been discussing whether to restart Vine on Twitter for years, initiating related polls every few months. Recently, an external team for Vine launched a token project themed "Bring Vine Back." According to their plan, 5% of the Vine token supply will be donated to Twitter. If Vine can successfully return, there are already over 145,000 token holders. Since the project's launch, they have reignited interest in Vine through meme culture and the viral effect of tokens.

More interestingly, Vine's social media activities and private Twitter groups have begun to form a kind of "community energy." For example, some people are graffitiing the Vine logo on the streets or printing the Vine logo to stick on walls. This phenomenon is driving the return of Vine. I find this case very interesting.

Using Application Tokens for Advertising Expenditure

Imran: I think tokens, or application tokens, can essentially be seen as a form of advertising expenditure. As more and more people become interested in them, this phenomenon may relate to who the founders are or other factors. Through tokens, you can attract users and even capture a certain market psychological share. In my view, there is a correspondence between advertising expenditure and viral spread. Memes are a form of tokens, while application tokens are more like tools for driving viral spread. This may also involve concepts similar to "user acquisition funnels." The JellyJelly team has attempted a similar approach.

JellyJelly

Qiao: How is the token issuance situation for JellyJelly?**

Every time they launch a token, I'm usually asleep. They always release at 9 PM, and I have a habit of turning off all screens two hours before bed. So I always miss it. Trump's token was at 9 PM, Vine's token was at 9 PM, and JellyJelly's token was also at 9 PM. I might have missed out on about eight figures in earnings.

Imran: These are just experiments happening right now. I believe the future will get better and will continue to improve over time.

Qiao: People's consumption habits have changed. Issuing tokens has become very common, and it's no longer surprising for anyone to launch a token, and it all started with the launch of $TRUMP.

The Future Prospects of Tokenization in Startups

Imran: I believe that in the future, almost all startups will use tokens, both as a means of self-financing and to acquire users. This is my judgment on future trends. I've discussed this issue with many people on Twitter, and some do not agree with my viewpoint.

They always say, "Oh, that won't work." Then their extreme supporters will wildly like their tweets. This is completely different from the world before, and I can understand that this change is hard to accept. Obviously, these innovations may happen on some blockchains you don't like. But that's precisely why this is the true soil for innovation.

Clout and Tribe

Imran: Previously, we discussed startups and application tokens; now let's talk about Clout and Tribe. I believe the concept of creator tokens is similar, with the core assumption being: the cost of acquiring followers is very low. You can easily attract a large number of followers. But the question is, are people willing to pay for "social capital"? In other words, in an environment flooded with followers, can social capital become the standard for measuring whether a person is truly influential?

Currently, we are trying two completely different experiments. One is a more user-friendly platform where anyone can easily buy and hold tokens, with simple operations and low barriers. The other leans more towards the characteristics of the crypto space, providing a new way to interact with creators. For example, users can participate in creators' live streams through tokens, interact with them in real-time, and support creators through a subscription model. Therefore, these two experiments represent two different experiences we are exploring.

Perspectives from Tensor Team Members

Imran: I think this is precisely the trend happening in the entire speculative crypto market right now. In the token space, the Tensor team has many unique insights, especially regarding consumer trading. Today, we have invited two founders from Tensor and Vector, Richard and Ilja, to share their thoughts.

Consensus Mechanisms and Vector's Development Direction

Imran: What are your views on consensus mechanisms? What is the current product direction?**

Richard: Our team has created an excellent mobile-native trading experience for memes. We can say that we are one of the earliest teams to try this model. Projects like Moonshot are also worth mentioning. Now, more and more teams realize that building a quality trading experience on mobile is feasible, such as integrating wallet functions directly into the app. The user's logical deduction is: Can all these professional meme trading functions be moved to mobile? These platforms provide complex statistics and trading charts. In other words, we can achieve an experience similar to Tensor on mobile, but focused on memes.

However, from the "first principles" perspective, we need to consider one question: Will professional traders really choose to complete complex trades on mobile? They might, but historically, mobile devices are more suitable for scenarios that require quick operations anytime and anywhere. For example, someone might quickly complete a trade while on a train, during work breaks, or while resting, rather than staring at a screen for four or five hours of deep operations like on a desktop. Therefore, fundamentally, we believe the goal of mobile is not to provide professional-level trading functions but to create a more user-friendly trading experience suitable for retail users. At the same time, we will also consider developing a desktop application to achieve seamless connectivity between the two.

Currently, the professional trading market on desktop is already a "red ocean." Many teams are developing almost identical products, and competition is fierce. So we decided to prioritize focusing on retail mobile products and gradually consider desktop development. We also intend to avoid directly adding professional features based on user feedback but rather hope to provide users with some new experiences that make them realize these features are unique to mobile. For example, mobile can provide real-time alerts through push notifications or quickly copy trades, which cannot be done on desktop. This is precisely the differentiated experience we hope to create in mobile-native applications.

Photon

Imran: I think Photon’s features are outstanding. You also provide functionalities like Meme Scope, allowing users to participate early in upcoming token projects. I've noticed that users enjoy sharing trading ideas and interacting with each other through the platform. How do you view the differences between these markets? Is your goal to make the product more inclined towards social interactions among ordinary consumers, or to focus on the needs of professional traders? How do you balance these directions?

Ilja: Trading is a very complex and multi-dimensional "game," which is also its charm. The more complex the game, the greater the challenge, and the more interesting it becomes. Different users will participate in this "game" in different ways. This is an important realization we had when developing our second trading product.

When we entered the NFT space, we found that most people were participating in trading in a singular way. So we developed a series of professional tools to help users participate in more diverse ways. In this new product, our direction is almost the opposite. In the past, everyone was used to participating in meme token trading through quantitative analysis and professional tools, while we hope to introduce a brand-new gameplay—an interactive experience based on social signals.

vector.fun

Ilja: Excellent startups often change the industry landscape by redefining the market rather than simply competing with existing companies. They tell users that what they used to care about has become irrelevant.

For Vector, our goal is the same. We are not simply telling users to use Vector because it can provide faster and more efficient trading tools. Instead, we want to tell everyone that fast trading tools are no longer that important. We make everything irrelevant by providing richer signals, more interesting content, and experiences that can be consumed anytime and anywhere. For example, you can quickly browse and participate in trading on the bus or even in the bathroom. This experience may not have an existing market, and perhaps no one is interested, or it might even be a bad idea. But we believe that only by trying can we know the answer. From the current user feedback, we have indeed discovered some demand.

Users do enjoy sharing their trading results with others in a "broadcast" manner. This is also the core concept of Vector. Just like Twitter's core is to allow users to tweet, Vector's core is to allow users to share trading dynamics.

Richard: For example, someone shared a trade saying they made $2 million today. This trade was completed through a token launched on the Pump Fun platform. The developer actually completed their first trade on Vector, almost in an advertising manner. They might not be sure about the future of this project, but they decided to buy $500 worth of their project's token. If the project succeeds, this will become a viral case. In fact, this is exactly what happened. Users screenshot and shared the results of this trade. Therefore, the developer effectively promoted the project using the Vector platform, and once the project succeeds, it will attract widespread attention.

Comparison Analysis of Vine and JellyJelly

Qiao: What do you think of Vine and JellyJelly? These two tokens attracted a lot of attention when they were first launched, and their prices skyrocketed quickly, but then they also dropped rapidly. What do you think we can learn from this?**

Imran: JellyJelly's heat has gradually faded, while Vine's performance has been relatively good.

Qiao: Vine's price trend is more stable, while JellyJelly is like a Christmas tree.

Richard: This is indeed interesting. I think we are experiencing a shift in thinking patterns, especially in how we view assets. In traditional financial markets, such as the U.S. stock market, there are about 30,000 stocks available for trading, plus some bonds and other assets. In the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) space, although some assets are limited in quantity, launching a token with sufficient liquidity is becoming increasingly difficult. On platforms like Pump Fun, there may only be about 100 tokens that most people are genuinely interested in. But through the mechanism of the "bond curve," the market has opened the floodgates for token issuance, allowing for almost unlimited new tokens to be launched.

This also means we need to look at these tokens in a whole new way. The speculative cycle of each token may be very short, but similar opportunities will continue to emerge, accompanied by different asset types. Therefore, rather than holding onto a single asset for the long term (like Bitcoin or Solana), it may be more beneficial to switch flexibly between different assets.

Tokenization Strategies as Market Entry Points

Imran: Some people from non-crypto fields are entering the crypto market through token issuance. This has almost become a new marketing strategy—using tokens to attract attention and acquire users. For example, the founder of Vine launched a token to spark the Twitter team's interest in redeveloping the Vine client. Some even painted the Vine logo on walls in New York to express their anticipation for Vine's return. In contrast, JellyJelly also attempted a similar approach, but I think their issuance strategy may have some issues.

Qiao: What specific issues? If it were you, how would you improve it?**

Imran: I think the problem is that everyone rushed into the market at the same time, leading to a highly speculative bubble forming in a short period. In such an environment, projects find it difficult to escape the hype atmosphere and must work hard to establish a more organic and sustainable growth model, which is a challenge that needs to be faced.

Another issue is the so-called "snipers." These individuals buy a large number of tokens within the first few minutes of the token's launch, accounting for 5% to 10% of the total, and then quickly sell off, which is a challenge that almost all token issuances face.

However, from another perspective, this may not be unacceptable. Those short-term speculators will eventually exit the market, while long-term investors who truly believe in the project's vision will stay.

More importantly, this phenomenon indicates that through token issuance, an application can quickly attract market attention and users without relying on traditional public relations activities, media coverage, or venture capital support. As long as a token is launched, it can spark discussions and then use that heat to build a community.

When I first heard about Vine's token, I thought it might be a scam because its market cap was only around $1 million at the time. But later, I saw Vine's founder Russ release a video proving his identity. From that moment on, the community began to take over the project, and now there is a group of over 8,000 Vine enthusiasts discussing Vine's future every day.

The Future of Tokenization

Imran: I believe we are entering a whole new era—almost everything will be tokenized in the future.

Qiao: Yes, for example, Ondo is tokenizing stocks, bonds, and more.

Imran: They are building a platform that allows anyone to tokenize stocks, bonds, and ETFs. And as the policy environment changes, the process of tokenization is accelerating.

Iljia: Looking back at early blog posts in the crypto space, the initial discussions actually focused on two points: First, you can own assets in a decentralized way, which was previously unattainable; second, tokens can be used to launch networks.

But it is important to note that a network means not only liquidity but also attention. When you start, you may have nothing and need to drive a two-sided market, such as on the Vector platform, where one side is callers and the other is traders. At this point, tokens become an excellent tool for incentivizing network cold starts. They can bring momentum and heat, attract users' attention, and promote the formation of network effects. If you can create a truly popular product, users will naturally stay.

I've also noticed an interesting phenomenon. In the past few years, due to regulatory reasons, many people have thought that the only use of tokens is as securities or assets. This has led us to almost forget the original purpose of tokens—they were not meant to become securities but to help launch networks.

Now, as the policy environment changes, some smart entrepreneurs have begun to recognize this again and use tokens to build new products. I believe that in the next two to three years, this trend will become increasingly evident, and tokens will be everywhere.

Two Main Tokenization Models

Richard: I think we can currently see two main tokenization models. The first is the tokenization of traditional financial instruments, such as converting equity or future cash flows into token form, which is closer to securitization. The second is the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWAs), such as digitally expressing real-world assets or goods through blockchain.

However, recently we have seen a new trend, which is memes. The value of this type of token is primarily driven by supply and demand and market consensus. In other words, people buy these tokens because they believe others will buy them, thus driving up the price. This model makes a lot of sense in a bull market, as there is a large flow of capital in the market, and investors hope to profit through speculation. But I wonder whether these attention-based tokens can survive across multiple market cycles, especially in a bear market, whether they can still attract investors' attention or merely exist as short-term speculative tools.

The Combination of Memecoin and Attention Economy

Qiao: In fact, attention assets are not a new concept; they have appeared in multiple market cycles. For example, in the early days, colored coins on Bitcoin can be seen as a form of attention asset. Similar ideas have existed for over a decade. In the last market cycle, NFTs became mainstream, which are essentially also attention assets. And now, we are witnessing the rise of memecoins. Although these tokens have different names, they are essentially all attention assets, just in different forms. Unless a new type of token emerges in the next cycle to carry attention, I believe the popularity of memecoins will continue.

Richard: We are very optimistic about the future of attention assets, which is also the core idea behind building the Vector platform. We have observed the development trend from NFTs to memecoins; these tokens reflect the market's emotions and states. They perform well in bull markets, but in bear markets, they may be more susceptible to market fluctuations than those based on Real World Assets (RWAs). Iljia:

It's indeed interesting. When we try to push a new idea to the market, we often apply old models or product logic to it. I can't recall the name of this phenomenon, but it highlights a problem: people still tend to view the crypto industry as a financial industry. While crypto is indeed closely related to finance, its potential goes far beyond that. Crypto is actually a manifestation of the attention economy and can even be seen as a new form of advertising. But many people have not fully grasped this yet.

I believe there are two very exciting types of products worth exploring in the crypto space. The first type is stablecoin products designed for developing countries, which can address real economic issues and have significant social implications. The second type is some extreme long-tail products, such as attention assets with a lifecycle of only 13 seconds. These products may seem crazy, but they are full of innovative potential. In contrast, traditional products that tokenize equity on the blockchain do not seem as appealing to me. Because this is not a breakthrough innovation that can bring a tenfold improvement. In my view, the most successful companies in the future will emerge in these two extreme areas.

The Current Growth Status of Vector

Imran: How is the current scale development of Vector? I noticed that your trading volume has surpassed $1 billion.

Iljia: At the peak of our platform, the total annual trading volume was close to $9 billion, with an average daily trading volume of about $25 million. At this rate, the annual trading volume would be around $9 billion. I believe we have the opportunity to reach our previous peak again. Products like this need some time to refine, and we are continuously optimizing and fixing issues during the launch process.

Specifically, at present, we have 20,000 active users, of which 5,000 are active traders, with daily trading volumes ranging from $5 million to $15 million. It should be emphasized that this product has just been launched for two months, and there is still much room for improvement.

Qiao: And currently, the platform is still in the testing phase, right? Only whitelisted users can use it?**

Iljia: Yes, currently the users are mainly whitelisted users in the testing phase. We hope to be more cautious when promoting the product because this is a product that relies on social dissemination. Users who join through friend invitations usually have more trust and are more likely to accept the product. The design of the invitation mechanism is to encourage users to invite their friends to join.

In addition, this approach has another benefit: since the product is not yet fully polished, when new users encounter problems during use, they can directly seek help from the friends who invited them, such as "Why can't this feature work?" or "What does this operation mean?" This "hand-holding" support can greatly enhance the user experience. If users are directly introduced to a product that is not yet refined, they may abandon it due to a poor experience. Once users give up, it is usually difficult to try again. Therefore, we hope to gradually optimize the user experience through this cautious promotion approach.

Qiao's Annual Experiment Sharing

Qiao: Well, I conducted my annual experiment and tweeted, "Solana is the ultimate form of blockchain," just to see the reaction.

This year's reaction was much better than last year. Last year, every Ethereum enthusiast came to attack me. But this year is different because many people just experienced some collapses two weeks ago. So the discussions this year have been relatively rational.

Imran: Speaking of this, I think it relates to the issue we discussed earlier. Alliance, as a neutral startup accelerator, is currently investing in multiple projects, including about 100 Layer 1 and Layer 2 projects, as well as some emerging platforms like Mega ETH, Monad, Abstract, Story Protocol, and Hyper Liquid, etc.

This list is continually growing, and we receive thousands of startup applications, among which the quality of projects seen on Base and Solana is indeed outstanding.

But the problem is that there are now too many Layer 1 projects being launched, and I can't even keep up with these developments. The launch of Blast was considered a success, but user feedback indicated that their opinions were not valued, and they felt "rug pulled."

I was somewhat surprised by Abstract's performance; although the launch went well, their focus on consumer market strategies seems unpopular, and many users are starting to churn. I think this frequent rotation of launches makes users feel fatigued, and the liquidity flowing into these Layer 1 projects is gradually decreasing.

Qiao: This is indeed a topic worth discussing because it is very important for both investors and startup teams. The information we possess is difficult to obtain in other fields because we are directly involved in the early stages of startup products.

A year ago, I didn't pay much attention to the differences between Ethereum Layer 2 and Solana. But after observing the performance of the startups we collaborated with in these two ecosystems, it is now clear that Solana is the better choice. We have seen many cases where the same product has almost no users on Ethereum Layer 2, while it runs smoothly on Solana and attracts a large number of users. I have encountered so much evidence that if I don't recommend founders to build on Solana now, I feel it would be irresponsible. This conclusion has become very clear.

The Trend of Developers Migrating from Ethereum to Solana

Imran: I've noticed that some Base supporters have already turned to Solana. What do you think is the reason behind this?**

Qiao: The reason is actually quite simple; it is easier to attract users on Solana. Although it is not easy for developers familiar with EVM to switch to Solana. They need to learn a whole new set of tools and master the Rust programming language and Solana's unique development framework. This may take one to two months, but even so, they still feel it is worth it because Solana provides a better user base and ecosystem support.

I have actually held Ethereum since the genesis block. But I sold it last year; I held it for a full 10 years. You can imagine holding an asset for 10 years and then suddenly feeling, "Its growth potential is almost at an end." It really is at an end.

User Profile Analysis Across Different Blockchains

Imran: I think Base's strategy is quite good because they have strong distribution channels. And Jessie's strategy is "I want to help developers achieve viral spread." This idea itself makes sense. But the reality is that many developers did not attract enough users when launching applications on Base, and they lack the necessary liquidity. I refer to this phenomenon as "speculative liquidity," which is the liquidity support needed for applications to operate normally. However, on Solana, users seem more inclined to speculate and are more willing to try new applications rather than linger on Base.

Qiao: When we say "speculative," we are not just referring to those traders. These users are very open to new things and are willing to try various new applications.

Imran: So from the user profile perspective, Base and Solana indeed have significant differences. Is this due to cultural differences?**

Qiao: I think it is related to both culture and product design. For example, currently, no EVM wallet can compare with Solana's Phantom.

On EVM, the user experience is very fragmented. New users often feel overwhelmed by the numerous wallet choices, which is a psychological burden for them. In contrast, on Solana, there is currently only one mainstream choice for me, which is Phantom, and this singular choice actually reduces the user's decision-making cost.

The Ultimate Form of Blockchain Technology Outlook

Imran: Although I am reluctant to admit it, Solana's development currently shows a "winner takes all" trend. What I mean is that although there are still some emerging projects, this competition is far from over and may last for decades. For example, Hyperliquid is a very interesting startup that is built on Solana and has a very appealing narrative logic. SUI and Aptos are also projects worth paying attention to. What do you think the ultimate development of blockchain will look like?

Qiao: In my view, ultimately four to five blockchains will stand out and become the main players in the industry. Solana is clearly the current leader, with very obvious advantages. Besides Solana, I believe SUI, Aptos, and Monad also have potential. These chains fully leverage modern hardware technology, maximizing transaction throughput while maintaining a certain degree of decentralization.

In contrast, Ethereum focuses more on achieving high decentralization, trying to resist government intervention, but sacrifices a lot of scalability for it. From a practical application perspective, this theory proves to be less competitive when handling high transaction volumes.

On the other hand, there are some chains that improve speed through centralized nodes but sacrifice decentralization. This model may be more friendly to market makers because they can collaborate with nodes in centralized data centers. However, this model has not been practically validated because these chains have not officially launched yet. Therefore, we need to continue observing. I believe they have a 10% to 20% chance of competing against Solana, but currently, Solana has a very strong competitive barrier in terms of user throughput.

Double Zero also leans heavily towards high-frequency trading (HFT), and their DNA is in fast communication. This is precisely what high-frequency trading firms excel at. Hyperliquid and DeepSeek also come from the high-frequency trading field.

Imran: There is a pattern here. In fact, when Anatoly initially conceived Solana, he positioned it as the NASDAQ on-chain, which was the application scenario he originally wanted to achieve.

Qiao: Based on my experience, among all centralized exchanges, NASDAQ indeed has the most advanced technology. Compared to NYC and CME, NASDAQ has the lowest latency and the most stable matching engine. Because of this, market makers prefer to trade on NASDAQ.

Imran: You could say that Anatoly's approach starts with the most challenging problems. For example, how to build a trading market or exchange on-chain? If you can solve this problem, then you can almost build any other application. This is also why he is so focused on this scenario because if you can solve this problem on-chain, you can solve everything.

Projects like Double Zero, Fire Dancer, and an increasing number of applications are entering our ecosystem. For example, the founder of Clout, who was also one of the founders of Monkey (one of the largest social applications in Web 2), actively chose to build on Solana. This is a great example. He reached out to us rather than us inviting him.

Qiao: Someone asked me what the ratio of founders on Solana to Ethereum is. I think it's about 50:50, but if we look at the top 1% of talent, I feel that ratio is closer to 75:25. What do you think?

Imran: I feel the same way. This is a significant advantage for Solana because those founders who find product-market fit will recommend Solana to their friends and colleagues, encouraging them to build applications here. This word-of-mouth effect has formed a structural barrier for Solana over time.

Coinbase's Strategic Layout

Imran: As a pioneer in the crypto industry, Coinbase has always been highly respected, and we all admire Brian Armstrong and his executive team, including Jesse. But from my external observation, Base may not be Coinbase's optimal strategic choice.

Qiao: I think Base should try to build their own Layer 1.

Imran: Whether it's Layer 2 or Layer 1, what I mean is that as a large company, Coinbase is politically too tightly bound to Base and its assets, which makes them insufficiently supportive of assets from other ecosystems.

Not just for political reasons, resource limitations are also an issue. Their resources are limited, so they naturally prioritize supporting Base. This has also led to their inability to adequately support Solana, and they haven't even listed many popular memes.

Qiao: I'm not criticizing their choice, but I want to point out that Coinbase's focus on Base has created a "tunnel vision" structurally and politically, overlooking significant changes happening with Solana.

Imran: Indeed. This has led to their withdrawal time on Solana being as long as 9 hours, and they haven't listed many memes that users want to trade. As a result, emerging projects like Moonshot have seized the opportunity, leveraging the Solana meme craze to attract 400,000 to 500,000 new users.

Qiao: And these users could have potentially entered Coinbase.

Imran: So I think Coinbase is gradually losing the macro perspective they once had, and that is the potential crisis I see.

Qiao: We are actually seeing intense competition between Coinbase and Solana. Coinbase's Base stands in stark contrast to projects like Jupiter, Meteora, and Moonshot. Disruptive innovation often starts from the bottom, as there are too many tokens being minted and traded on-chain, and centralized exchanges cannot cover all these tokens, gradually losing market share.

Especially when a token is listed on Binance, the community often sees it as a negative signal because token prices usually drop after listing.

From the data of app stores, projects like Phantom and Moonshot are often more popular than Coinbase, indicating that more and more users are choosing to trade directly on-chain rather than going to centralized exchanges.

Discussion on "Blast Should Have Been Hyperliquid"

Imran: I think it might be a bit late now. Although competition is still ongoing, Solana still holds a leading position. While the lead is not particularly large, I believe they are gradually losing market share. We can talk about Hyperliquid. At least from the discussions on Twitter, many influential founders are choosing to build projects based on Hyperliquid. I feel they are attracting a large number of EVM Degen users (speculators in the Ethereum Virtual Machine ecosystem). In a sense, Hyperliquid should have played the role of Blast.

Blast had the opportunity to become a project like Hyperliquid, but their actions were too slow. I tried the Blast Wallet application, but I couldn't even figure out what the core functionality of this application was. Although it offers a 20% yield, which sounds good, this wallet has almost no other practical uses.

So I think they lost to Hyperliquid in the competition. Hyperliquid can attract EVM Degen community and build an ecosystem around trading functions. Even if their focus is solely on trading, that is acceptable. Additionally, projects like SUI and Aptos are also developing rapidly. Their TVL (Total Value Locked) has reached an all-time high today. These projects do have some highlights; although I am not entirely optimistic, I cannot ignore their potential.

Qiao: I remain open to this. However, as it stands, Solana is still far ahead of all competitors. I'm not saying the competition is settled, but I believe the likelihood of Ethereum's Layer 2 (second-layer scaling solutions) or other emerging Layer 1 (first-layer blockchains) surpassing Solana is less than 50%, and it may even be only 10% to 20%.

Imran: Additionally, the way new Layer 1 projects are launched is also crucial. So far, aside from BeraChain establishing a large TVL base, from a narrative perspective, other projects have not truly excited me. Many recently launched Layer 1 projects lack appeal and do not have sufficient incentive mechanisms. I hope this situation will improve over time. Ultimately, the key is to see what kind of products can be built on these platforms.