Countdown to Trump's inauguration, a comprehensive review of related concept coins and market predictions
What are the expectations for new cryptocurrency policies? Polymarket's betting situation.Author: flowie, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Less than three hours remain until Trump officially takes office. Around 1 a.m. Beijing time on the 21st, Trump will take the oath of office and deliver his inaugural speech.
On the eve of his inauguration, Trump and his wife released personal meme coins one after another, which left both the industry and the public astonished and triggered a significant upheaval in the crypto sector. Tonight's inaugural speech and the policies Trump plans to announce are expected to bring considerable volatility to the crypto market once again.
Recently, several analysis agencies and media outlets have released predictions regarding Trump's inauguration ceremony and the subsequent market outlook. Trump-themed coins and U.S. institutional-themed coins have once again become hot trading topics.
What concept coins related to Trump's inauguration are worth paying attention to?
Last weekend, the personal meme coin TRUMP officially released by Trump and the personal meme coin MELANIA released by his wife Melania benefited a large number of meme users. Despite ongoing controversies regarding the presidential family's continuous coin releases, the celebrity coin wave brought by Trump is undoubtedly a direction that meme coin players cannot afford to miss recently.
Whether other members of the Trump family, presidents from other countries, and industry leaders represented by Musk will release coins next may become a focal point for meme players.
In addition to celebrity meme coins, projects related to the Trump family, the inaugural ceremony, and the first official government crypto ball, as well as new appointments made by Trump and related concept coins involving U.S. capital and domestic entrepreneurial projects, are also expected to be hot trading topics in the near future. ChainCatcher has briefly summarized the relevant tokens.
Trump and family-related meme coins: TRUMP, MELANIA. Additionally, keywords from Trump's inaugural speech are worth noting, as popular meme phrases often appear in his speeches.
Trump family concept coins: The Trump family's DeFi project World Liberty Financial token WLFI, which has been very active, increased its supply by 5% today and purchased multiple ENS domain names.
Moreover, after the launch of Trump's official meme coin TRUMP, WLFI purchased a large amount of ETH. As of the time of writing, its Ethereum holdings have surpassed 41,000 coins, worth approximately $140 million. Additionally, Trump's son Eric Trump retweeted a post about WLFI purchasing a large amount of ETH today, hinting at "significant actions" to come tomorrow.
The project has acquired ONDO, ENA, ETH, LINK, AAVE, and cbBTC. Furthermore, the main platform used for purchasing WLFI tokens was CowSwap (COW). These tokens had previously risen due to their connection to the Trump family. Eric Trump recently disclosed his holdings of BTC, ETH, SOL, and SUI.
Sponsoring projects for the inauguration ceremony and crypto ball: TRON, Ripple, Anchorage, Kraken, Sui, MetaMask, Galaxy, Ondo (ONDO), Solana, Etoro, Uniswap, and crypto-listed companies Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital, Nano Labs, Exodus, Metaplanet, etc.
Recommended reading: “Here's Every Crypto Firm That Shelled Out for Trump's Inauguration”
Concept coins from Trump's new government:
Musk-related concepts: Dogecoin DOGE, the meme coin Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) sharing an acronym with the government efficiency department, PNUT.
White House AI and crypto director David Sacks-related concepts: DYDX, HNS, ZRX.
New SEC Chair Paul Atkins-related concepts: RSR.
Recommended reading: “Ambushing the 'Trump Inauguration Market'? A Summary of the New Government's Crypto Team and Related Concept Coins”
U.S. capital coins: Previously, ChainCatcher reviewed coin projects associated with traditional asset management firms like BlackRock, including Ondo, CRV, ENA, LINK, XLM, VELO, SUI, APT, Avax, PUFFER, etc. **Additionally, Grayscale's holdings and the ** Coinbase 50 Index selected tokens are also worth attention.
Recommended reading: “U.S. Capital Coins Lead the Charge, Reviewing 18 Coin Projects Associated with BlackRock and Other Traditional Asset Managers”
“Grayscale's Q1 2025 Selection: 20 Tokens with High Growth Potential”
Domestic project coins in the U.S.: XRP, Solana, LTC, LINK, UNI, MKR, SUI, COMP, etc.
Recommended reading: “After Bitcoin Hits 100k, What Coins to Buy? ------ Buy American Coins”
What new crypto policies are expected in Trump's inaugural speech?
Recently, Trump has mentioned crypto in several public interviews, adding to expectations for the crypto market. In an interview with CNBC, Trump stated that he would do great things through cryptocurrency.
Major media outlets and institutions have also leaked some expected crypto policies following Trump's inauguration. In summary, there are several key points:
1. On the day of Trump's inauguration, at least one executive order related to the crypto industry will be issued. This news mainly comes from Reuters and The Washington Post, citing informed sources. Bitcoin Magazine columnist Nikolaus Hoffman also predicts that an executive order regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrency accounting will be issued on the first day of Trump's presidency.
According to Bloomberg, the executive order may position cryptocurrency as a "national priority," elevating it to a national policy priority aimed at guiding government agencies to collaborate with the industry and establishing a cryptocurrency advisory committee to voice industry policies.
The Washington Post also stated that the content involves repealing controversial cryptocurrency accounting policies and ending "debanking." This policy requires banks that custody cryptocurrencies to list these crypto assets on their balance sheets and correspondingly list liabilities equal to the value of these cryptocurrencies, increasing the financial pressure on institutions providing crypto asset custody services.
2. The SEC may be preparing to advance crypto policy reforms immediately after Trump takes office. Reuters reported that Trump's SEC team reviewed pending crypto enforcement cases in court and is expected to comprehensively reform crypto policies, possibly freezing some lawsuits not involving fraud allegations. Three informed sources indicated that Republican officials at the SEC are prepared to begin reforming the agency's cryptocurrency policies as early as next week after Trump takes office.
Two of the informed sources stated that measures being considered by Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda include initiating relevant procedures to ultimately formulate guidance or rules clarifying under what circumstances the agency will consider cryptocurrencies as securities and reviewing some ongoing crypto enforcement cases in court. As a result of this news, projects that had previously been entangled with the SEC, such as XRP, rose by 17% that day.
3. Trump is "open" to the idea of the U.S. purchasing altcoins (such as Solana, USD Coin, and Ripple) created in the U.S. as strategic reserves. The New York Post cited sources stating that in recent weeks, Trump has met with the founders of these cryptocurrencies, accepting the idea but also expressing concerns that this move could undermine efforts to promote Bitcoin.
This news has led to significant increases in Solana and XRP. However, the idea of the U.S. purchasing altcoins as strategic reserves faces controversy. Quinn Thompson, founder of hedge fund Lekker Capital, stated this morning that it is a ridiculous idea that will never happen.
In addition to the leaks or predictions from major media and institutions, reviewing Trump's crypto commitments during the 2024 campaign (as shown in the table below), whether Trump will immediately initiate a national Bitcoin reserve or the most concerning policy direction for the crypto market after his inauguration remains to be seen.
According to Cointelegraph, currently, eight states are leading the push for Bitcoin strategic reserve legislation, including Florida, Alabama, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Grayscale's research managing director Zach Pandl stated today that Bitcoin is expected to become a U.S. reserve asset by 2025.
The promise to fire the SEC chair has already been partially fulfilled, as Trump has previously nominated Paul Atkins to serve as SEC chair. Recently, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis met with SEC chair nominee Paul Atkins to discuss digital asset legislation and regulatory reform. She hinted that changes may be forthcoming and jokingly suggested slimming down the SEC (i.e., streamlining and reforming it).
Polymarket's Predictions for Trump's Inaugural Day Crypto Speech and New Policies
As of the time of writing, nearly $840,000 has been wagered on Polymarket regarding whether Trump will mention his official meme TRUMP during the inauguration ceremony, but the current probability of it being mentioned is only 8%.
Additionally, nearly $7.2 million has been wagered on Polymarket that President Trump will mention specific keywords related to cryptocurrency in his inaugural speech on January 20th.
Among them, users have wagered over $3.87 million that Trump will mention "cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" in his speech, and over $650,000 that he will mention "Doge/Dogecoin." The probabilities for "cryptocurrency" and "Bitcoin" are 46%, while "Doge/Dogecoin" is 11%.
The probability of Trump issuing a crypto executive order on inauguration day is at 40%, with the trading volume for this prediction contract exceeding $190,000.
Polymarket also shows probabilities for Trump establishing a national Bitcoin strategy within a week of his inauguration, within 100 days, or by 2025, at 11%, 57%, and 63%, respectively.
Regarding The Washington Post's report that U.S. altcoins like XRP and Solana may be considered for strategic reserves, Polymarket has also seen corresponding prediction contracts, but the current probabilities are only 18%.
What impact will Trump's coin releases have on crypto?
One immediate impact of Trump's meme coin release is that it has attracted more new users into the space. For instance, Moonshot attracted over 400,000 new users within 24 hours of the TRUMP coin's launch, as Moonshot supports fiat purchases of memes, likely bringing in many users from outside the crypto space.
Additionally, Trump's meme coin release has shifted the crypto market's attention significantly, potentially challenging other sectors like CEX and AI agents.
Bybit CEO BEN reflected on X platform that all CEX have seen significant outflows of SOL and USDC, flowing towards on-chain purchases of TRUMP. Moonshot + Meteora/Jupiter created over 30 billion memecoins in less than 10 hours without any CEX involvement.
In 2025, he will focus on building Onchain Bybit and heavily invest in the Bybit web3 wallet, believing that failure to join this revolution will lead to obsolescence.
Emerging potential sectors represented by AI agents are among the most severely affected by TRUMP. Mint Ventures research partner Alex Xu mentioned that most AI agent tokens may face not just a correction but a long-term collapse in valuation.
Meanwhile, some sectors and projects are benefiting from this. For example, projects selling water to speculative enthusiasts, including Solana, Moonshot, various TG BOTs, and DEXs like Raydium.
A report released today by QCP also mentioned that Trump's meme deployment on the Solana chain is seen as an endorsement of that chain, potentially accelerating the approval of SOL ETFs and driving a surge in altcoins.
However, whether Trump's actions are a positive or negative influence on the future of crypto remains a point of contention in the market. Optimists or supporters believe this marks a paradigm shift for cryptocurrency, reopening doors for crypto to reach the mainstream.
Bernstein analysts stated that this signifies the arrival of a new regulatory era in the U.S., with the government viewing cryptocurrency as a technology that directly engages the public. Jason, founder of Folius Capital, believes Trump's coin release has historical significance, essentially signaling that releasing coins is acceptable, with an estimated 1-2 top-tier fast-track releases expected in the next month.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also stated that the Trump administration has embraced a free market model, and the next four years may witness meme-driven cryptocurrency community experiments, an unstoppable wave expected to last until 2028.
There are also some concerns and criticisms in the market. Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, criticized Trump for holding 80% of TRUMP coins and launching it just hours before the inauguration, deeming it predatory and potentially harmful to many. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, also stated that this is detrimental to the industry, comparing it to the corruption level of former Ugandan president Idi Amin.
AllianceDAO co-founder Qiao Wang believes Trump has two options: announce his token for some fiscal policy purposes—such as purchasing Greenland, aiding Los Angeles, upgrading the power grid, etc.—or do nothing and just continue to profit; the former would lead the world to discuss cryptocurrency as the greatest capital formation mechanism ever used for good causes, ushering in the golden age of cryptocurrency; the latter would be criminal.
Hoskinson believes the Trump administration may redefine the IRS's policies on capital gains tax and fair market value assessments for digital assets, and these expected changes could impact the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry.
Market Outlook: High Short-term Volatility, BTC Expected to Surpass $150,000 by 2025
Although Trump's meme coin release has led to a decline in BTC, the rebound has been relatively quick, nearing $110,000 at the time of writing.
Will Bitcoin face a "sell the news" profit-taking situation when Trump officially takes office? Pantera Capital portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang indicated that some selling behavior may occur in the short term, but those doing so are missing the bigger picture, expressing a long-term bullish sentiment.
However, the subsequent policies following Trump's inauguration could bring both positive and negative impacts for crypto. Bloomberg reported that speculators are weighing the risks of inflation tariffs and immigration policies against Trump's commitment to making the U.S. a global center for digital assets, supporting the idea of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. K33 analysts also stated that the market is trying to assess the impacts of these major policies, namely the inflation effects of Trump's tariff remarks versus potential tax cuts, which are expected to boost risk assets and favorable crypto policies this year.
Trump's official inauguration also brings greater volatility to the crypto market in 2025. QCP Capital expects increased market volatility around the inauguration ceremony, and will remain cautious about downside risks. It stated that the $90,000 level for Bitcoin has been tested multiple times. The stock market also appears fragile, and with rising global bond yields, it may trigger chaotic and gap-filled market movements.
LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger stated in a report that Bitcoin's volatility this week indicates an unstable start for cryptocurrency in 2025. It noted that Bitcoin's recent volatility is primarily related to fluctuations in traditional market sentiment, with crypto assets becoming more correlated with the U.S. stock market. "While there is much to say about Bitcoin's rebound in safe-haven trades, the market remains active in trading Bitcoin as a risk asset, and Bitcoin may decline when the stock market sells off."
However, the market remains optimistic about the price trajectory of BTC in 2025.
From the predictions summarized by AI from various institutions, the expected highest price range for BTC in 2025 is between $150,000 and $1,000,000, with around $150,000 being the more commonly cited figure. Specific predictions are as follows:
- CoinShares: Expects Bitcoin's price volatility range to be between $80,000 and $150,000.
- Galaxy Digital: Expects Bitcoin to surpass $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and reach $50,000 in the fourth quarter.
- Standard Chartered: Expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Matrixport: Expects Bitcoin to reach $160,000 in 2025.
- Bit Mining: Expects Bitcoin to be between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025.
- Bernstein: Expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Rich Dad Robert Kiyosaki: Expects Bitcoin to surge to $350,000 in 2025.
- Blockware Solutions: Expects Bitcoin to break $150,000 by mid-2025 and reach a base scenario of $50,000 by the end of the year, with an optimistic scenario potentially reaching $400,000.
- University of Sussex professor Carol Alexander: Expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in the summer of 2025 and possibly challenge the $200,000 high.
- Bernstein Research Company: Expects Bitcoin's price to potentially reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- CryptoQuant: Trump's policies may push Bitcoin to $90,000 in 2025.
- PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model: Expects BTC to reach $1,000,000.
