Matrixport Research: BTC May Enter Overall Structural Bullish Trend
With Trump's inauguration and the start of the earnings season, the future monetary and fiscal path will become the focus of market attention.Due to the strong non-farm data and the news that the U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to liquidate the seized BTC from the Silk Road case, the global market has experienced a turbulent correction at the beginning of the year. Amid inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical fluctuations, the CPI being lower than expected provided a brief boost to the market. With Trump's inauguration and the start of the earnings season, the future monetary and fiscal path will become a focal point for the market.
The price of BTC has also risen with the release of multiple catalysts. Overall, if the BTC price breaks through $103,000, BTC may enter a structurally bullish phase. However, it is particularly important to remain vigilant amidst FOMO sentiment and balance risks, as reasonably assessing tactical buying time points and dynamically balancing asset allocation will be crucial in 2025.
CPI Data Lower Than Expected, Multiple Catalysts Boost Crypto Asset Rise
On January 15, the U.S. CPI data was released. The seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year for December was 3.2%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.30%, marking the lowest level since August 2024; the U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year for December was 2.9%, in line with market expectations. The cooling of core CPI alleviated market concerns about rising inflation in the U.S., leading to a rapid rebound in the global market, with BTC also strongly rebounding by 4 points after the information was released, stabilizing around the 10k mark.
The BTC spot ETF also reversed its downward trend, returning to a net inflow state after four consecutive days of net outflow. On the 15th, the total net inflow for BTC spot ETF was $755 million; on the 16th, the total net inflow for BTC spot ETF was $626 million, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing the highest single-day net inflow of $528 million.
At the same time, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose, but the number of layoffs remained stable in the market, indicating a generally resilient and healthy job market. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that for the week ending January 11, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 217,000, exceeding the market expectation of 210,000. In the context of relatively mild inflation and a generally healthy job market, the market widely expects two interest rate cuts this year.
Trump's Inauguration Approaches, May Drive Implied Volatility Up
On January 20, Trump's inauguration ceremony is imminent. The Trump administration's "crypto-friendly" stance is a catalyst that the market eagerly anticipates. It is not ruled out that it could, to some extent, hedge against the negative impact of high inflation data and provide some market support for BTC prices. Market sentiment is generally bullish on BTC, with a recent survey by Citigroup (targeting its TradFi clients) showing that respondents generally expect BTC prices to rise in 2025, with most anticipating that the price will be in the range of $100,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year.
If the BTC price breaks through $103,000, BTC may enter a structurally bullish phase. Even if market momentum weakens, BTC will initially show relative resilience, as strategic investors will shift from altcoins to what they consider safer and more confident trades—namely BTC.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
