How to "go by feeling" to escape the peak in a bull market

Source: Talking Li and Talking Outside

The current atmosphere seems quite interesting. Just three days ago, everyone was excitedly discussing the bull market, and now, just three days later, many people have started to turn bearish! As a result, some friends began to complain: if I had known, I would have sold a few days ago; if I had known, I wouldn't have bought a few days ago; if I had known…

In fact, since we started producing content, new friends have been following Talking Li and Talking Outside every day, and over a long period, we have received many comments on "eternal topics," most of which are questions about prices. The most common questions are when the market top will appear, what the top price will be, when the market bottom will be, how high a certain token can rise, and so on—questions seeking certainty.

It is precisely because so many people hope to find or inquire about a 100% certain answer that various analysts and trading instructors have gained more and more followers online. However, we still hold the view that your wallet is your own, and you should always be responsible for your investments. Regardless of what those trading instructors or perpetual profit masters say, you must understand that all statements are merely probabilistic; no one can predict the market's top or bottom with 100% accuracy.

As Sister Hui said in the group yesterday: no one can buy at the lowest and sell at the highest; if someone can, they are either a god or part of a scam. As shown in the picture below.

If you still decide to base your investment decisions on seeking a 100% certain answer from others, then this may also mark the beginning of your losses in a bull market. You might start off well due to good luck, but this is more likely just that you happened to catch a phase of the bull market trend. Most people who behave this way ultimately end up losing their profits or even their principal.

Moreover, for most people, greed seems to be a particularly fatal issue in investing, such as:

• When the market is rising, they often do not consider locking in some profits as planned and may even continue to blindly chase higher prices until they exhaust their principal.

• Conversely, when the market is falling, they often panic and sell (even at a loss) their positions. At the same time, out of unwillingness to accept losses, they will continue to blindly look for other targets to supposedly "buy the dip," hoping to quickly recover their losses or turn things around.

In this field, many people always treat speculation as investment and hope to accumulate wealth in a very short time, without considering making money as a long-term plan or strategy. Some even leave comments saying: this field is just air and scams, including Bitcoin, and I came in just for the dreams of speculation and getting rich quickly. The long-term investment philosophy you mentioned is completely unreliable.

Of course, how one views, thinks, and plans to act is everyone's freedom, so we will not argue with others about this, nor will we try to prove anything.

We often hear a saying: history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Especially in the investment market, if you have experienced 2-3 cycles, you should be able to relate.

At this stage, for many newcomers, the bull market is just beginning, but for those who have been dollar-cost averaging for over two years, the focus is more on how to reasonably sell in batches. Of course, some veteran investors or analysts may have more aggressive views; they still believe that this round of the bull market has just begun, and a $100,000 Bitcoin is just the starting point. They also believe that next year, over 100 million new investors will enter the market…

The market is often like this: a place full of freedom of speech, but also full of various noises. The so-called market opportunities for profit are constantly circulating among various statements and noises.

In a recent article about the topic of market tops, we organized and summarized 15 major reference indicators for escaping the Bitcoin bull market peak from a data perspective. Today, we will take this topic and analyze it from the perspective of "intuitive feelings" to see how we can "escape the top" in a bull market based on our feelings.

1. Notice your friends circle starting to discuss cryptocurrencies

I remember in a previous article on Talking Li and Talking Outside, we mentioned that in the later stages of a bull market, there are several obvious personal experiences, such as people who have never talked about cryptocurrencies before starting to discuss them in their social circles, and many celebrities outside the crypto space beginning to publicly and intensively discuss cryptocurrencies on social media.

This is quite understandable because as the market trend develops, when BTC breaks new historical highs and creates some milestone events, many mainstream media outlets will report on it. Coupled with the influence of some celebrities, this will draw more outsiders back into the field.

Therefore, if you find people discussing cryptocurrencies while shopping in malls or hanging out in popular cafes, or if you notice your friends circle starting to discuss cryptocurrencies—especially those colleagues or relatives who have never talked about cryptocurrencies before, or even old friends you haven't contacted in years suddenly calling you to ask how to download an exchange app or what coins to buy—then perhaps it's time for you to consider selling part of your holdings.

2. Notice that the vast majority of people are actively bullish

During this bear market, even when we were around $20,000 for Bitcoin, shouting at the top of our lungs didn't help, because under that sentiment, most people continued to be bearish.

In contrast, during a bull market, when Bitcoin successfully breaks historical highs and reaches the $100,000 mark, even if we start to warn about risks, everyone is still in high spirits, and many analysts tell you that it will continue to rise to $200,000 or even $300,000 next year, most people believe it.

Of course, this sentiment is not only directed at Bitcoin; it applies to all cryptocurrencies. For example, once you notice that everyone in social media and various communities is feeling bullish and many are rushing into a particular asset, you should be cautious; perhaps this phase of rising prices is nearing its end.

3. Notice that traditional mainstream media/programs are starting to report extensively

Due to the unique nature of the crypto market, in many places, traditional mainstream media rarely conducts extensive reporting.

If you find that reputable media outlets that have never reported on cryptocurrencies before are now starting to cover them continuously, or if some traditional television programs begin to mention cryptocurrencies, then it may indicate that we are approaching the later stages of a phase in the bull market.

As exposure increases and influence grows, the market will experience FOMO, and most people will start to feel bullish. However, this sentiment always reaches a peak; once the bullish sentiment stops or fails to continue driving market prices up, even if the fundamentals remain, the market is likely to experience a phase of decline.

Once a phase of decline occurs, based on past experiences, various media and KOLs may continue to generate a lot of bearish information to maintain traffic, which can turn a slow decline into a rapid one. At this point, most people will no longer pay attention to the fundamentals.

4. Notice that people around you start flaunting their wealth or want to make you rich

I have experienced this a few times myself; let me give a small example:

I remember during the last bull market, a friend who usually doesn't post much on social media started showing off his luxury watch and even posted about his new car. I casually liked one of his posts, and he eagerly started chatting with me, asking if I understood cryptocurrencies. I said I didn't know anything about it, and he said he could help me buy coins to get rich, adding that he had quit his job and planned to go all in on cryptocurrencies. However, I declined, citing a lack of funds to invest.

Although in this field, when the bull market ends, most people will look back and see that they lost money, during the bull market, some people can indeed achieve short-term wealth accumulation, so they may habitually flaunt their success on social media. This behavior is not inherently right or wrong; it's just a normal human psychological expression.

However, as market participants and observers of these individuals, we should also be aware that people's flaunting (including various profit-sharing posts) often indicates that market sentiment is clearly in a state of greed. What we need to do is to start selling when others are greedy and start buying when they are fearful.

5. Notice that various influencers become active, and many analysts emerge

Recently, I have spent time searching and observing. For example, in the case of public accounts, I found that many accounts were registered and opened this year, and these influencers are quite active. At the same time, many self-proclaimed analysts have started to become active online and in various communities, attracting attention through various profit-sharing posts (which are certainly showcasing high returns).

As various perpetual profit masters and successful individuals appear in large numbers, more and more newcomers are attracted, and we also notice that the frequency of scams is increasing. Many newcomers may lose all their principal and even incur significant debts.

In other words, if you find that more and more new influencers are becoming active, more new circles are emerging, more old circles are reviving, more wealth stories are presented to you, and more scam cases are surrounding you, then it indicates that we may be approaching the later stages of the bull market.

6. Notice that some old projects are extracting liquidity

In a bull market, when market sentiment reaches a certain level, even those old projects that seem to have little room for growth can start to rise and absorb market liquidity. When this happens, we should pay close attention because the rise of such projects often indicates that we are experiencing the tail end of the bull market.

Additionally, we can observe changes in market trend indicators to see if the upward trend might be broken. Although many indicators (like MACD) may have some lag, if you feel that the upward trend seems to be breaking or about to break, it indicates one of two situations: either the market will enter a phase of consolidation, or it may directly enter a new downward channel. The choice at this point can be quite difficult for many, as they fear missing out on profits while also fearing being trapped. The trend needs to be clear before it can be understood; until then, it's merely a probabilistic judgment.

Of course, the six points we listed above are more about intuitive feelings and do not have rigorous data support; they are for entertainment purposes only. We hope to provide some "feeling-based (from different angles and thoughts)" judgments on the progress of the bull market. In the end, the same statement applies: no one can predict the market's top with 100% accuracy. If you are still trying to seek such certain answers, then we can only wish you do not lose your principal after this bull market ends. If you want to make money in this bull market, what we need to do is to strictly manage our "position management," as repeatedly emphasized in previous articles on Talking Li and Talking Outside.