Most people must lose money before the market can welcome a new rise

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

In the past two days, the market has been quite volatile, so there have been more messages in the backend. I have read quite a few messages and private messages, and have replied to some of them. Today's content is mainly some casual talk:

1. Learn to Change Your Perspective When Thinking About Problems

When encountering significant market fluctuations in a short period, if you are uncertain or hesitant, the best action is to do nothing and take a good rest.

Alternatively, you might consider taking some time to continue reading articles for learning, but reading articles also requires a method.

When a person holds or is optimistic about a coin, they may habitually look for various reasons for that coin to rise, even trying to persuade others to buy it. Conversely, the same applies. Therefore, when someone says in an article (or on social media) that a coin is worth buying or holding, you should think more about whether you really understand or are optimistic about that coin.

For example, if Da Long is always optimistic about BTC and holds it firmly, he will often list reasons for his optimism about BTC's future rise. Then, you might think Da Long seems to have a point and impulsively buy BTC at the $100,000 position. But when you make these moves, have you considered a few possible questions from a different perspective:

• What is Da Long's BTC holding cost?

• How much risk is Da Long willing to take?

• What is Da Long's investment plan and investment cycle?

• Does Da Long set stop-loss or take-profit orders?

• And so on…

To put it bluntly, as mentioned in previous articles: my average cost for this round of BTC dollar-cost averaging is around $25,000, and my investment plan for accumulating coins is long-term. This means I never set stop-loss orders for BTC. Last December, I only sold 10%, and even if I don't sell the remaining BTC this year or don't follow the planned selling, it doesn't matter to me if I hold it for another ten years.

However, my strategy may not be suitable for everyone. You can't just see me say BTC is worth holding, think I have a point, and then impulsively buy BTC at $100,000. If a few days later, you find BTC's price has dropped to $90,000, you might get furious and leave messages calling me a scammer or garbage for making you lose money…

We are all adults, and adults should be responsible for their own decisions. If making money were that easy, just by reading a couple of articles from some blogger, then there would probably be no poor people left on this planet.

In short, I have my own plans, strategies, and reviews, and you should have your own plans and strategies as well. Before making any decisions, learn to change your perspective and think about the problem.

As mentioned in previous articles: everyone's position size and risk preference are different, and others' (including mine) opinions and practices may not be suitable for you to adopt or copy directly. Whether you want to enhance your knowledge, cognition, or increase your wealth accumulation, the basic approach is to extract the other party's thoughts, logic, and methods, then see which can be integrated with your own trading strategy, draw inferences from one instance, and form your own methodology.

2. Respect Others' Fates and Let Go of the Desire to Help

In a previous article, I mentioned a viewpoint: I still believe there will be a altcoin season, but this time it may be completely different from the historical short-term "all coins flying together" altcoin seasons.

Then, a little cutie seemed to get angry after seeing this statement and directly left a message saying: "Get lost, your viewpoint is the same as others, what nonsense."

I don't know why this little cutie got so angry over such a viewpoint. Did they lose money due to the poor market in the past two days?

In the past few years, I have probably produced over 2 million words through Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside. If I had to extract viewpoints, I would estimate that the various viewpoints I have expressed (whether correct or incorrect) add up to over a thousand. Regarding the topic of altcoin seasons, I have already shared this viewpoint many times in a series of articles last year (2024).

Moreover, who says that people's viewpoints must be different? If I say "the weather is very nice today," does that mean others can't express the same viewpoint about the good weather?

When the market is bad, some people's emotions and mindsets can deteriorate, which I can understand. I welcome any form of constructive criticism, and you can even leave messages to refute my viewpoints. However, if someone comes in and speaks rudely (and some even use foul language), I generally will directly block them. This way, both parties can have a clearer experience, as your typing and leaving messages also waste time, and I waste time reading ineffective messages every day.

In fact, when I first started writing articles, I didn't have the habit of blocking people. Although there were also rude comments back then, I usually chose to ignore them, thinking that as long as I didn't pay attention, it would be fine. And as mentioned in a previous article, I would occasionally kindly ask if the other person was facing any problems or difficulties.

However, as my audience grew, I noticed that there seemed to be more little cuties with tempers. For example, some people would not be satisfied with just one rude comment and would frequently come back to curse. So, I had no choice but to start my blocking journey. I just checked the backend records, and I first blocked a little cutie on December 13, 2023.

This really echoes the old saying I mentioned again in a previous article: when I started to learn to "respect others' fates and let go of the desire to help," I felt much lighter.

3. Most People Must Lose Money Before the Market Can Welcome a New Rise

We always say that the short-term market is unpredictable, and all predictions (including those from Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside) are merely probabilistic "guesses" based on data and other dimensions.

If I tell you that in 20 years, Bitcoin may have a 90% chance of reaching $1 million, this is meaningless to most people because very few have the patience for 20 years. Therefore, most people prefer to hear short-term predictions, such as how much Bitcoin's price can rise or fall tomorrow, or how much it can rise or fall next month…

Then you will follow many KOLs, looking at their so-called analyses/predictions every day, hoping to find the key to wealth and trading guidance. But every KOL actually has freedom of speech; they won't break the law for saying that Bitcoin will rise to $150,000 tomorrow. Therefore, the internet is filled with various so-called predictions, and some even operate two accounts to express opinions—one bearish and one bullish—because one of the outcomes will always be correct.

But does the market listen to these KOLs?

No one can know for sure what the next outcome will be. What we need to do is quite simple: three basic steps:

• Reasonably set goals that suit your risk preference.

• Optimize your position and trading strategy.

• Strictly execute your trading discipline and accumulate as much profit as possible (note that it is profit, not unrealized gains).

In short, try to block out various noises and distractions, learn only from others' strengths (thoughts, logic, etc.), and then plan your own path.

In the face of interests (especially absolute interests), do not trust any blogger/KOL/trading teacher/enthusiastic netizen's so-called character, but think about human nature. This way, the probability of being scammed or falling into a trap will decrease. Similarly, you don't know me, and I don't know you, so you shouldn't completely trust my viewpoints. Some of my viewpoints may also be wrong. Therefore, any information I provide is for reference only. Please always maintain independent thinking, DYOR, and be cautious about potential risks.

The market is ruthless; it has no emotional color. Only people are affected by emotional fluctuations. But because of this, the market also has certain regularities. For example, I remain optimistic because I still believe that cyclical patterns exist. I also believe that when most people must lose money, the market can welcome a new rise.

If you don't believe in this pattern, then choosing the timing you think is appropriate to exit is the best choice for you. For instance, if Zhang San is always optimistic about ETH while Li Si is not, then it's simple: Zhang San stays, and Li Si exits, each bearing the consequences of their choices. They really don't need to argue too much about it.

Everyone must learn to adapt to paying for their own understanding; willing to gamble means accepting the loss.

For example, the classic chart below represents some of the market cycle's regularities. So, which stage do you think the current market is in? Is it a Bear trap? Or a Bull trap? Or… what kind of choice (bet) will you make based on your judgment (guess)?

At the end of the article, let's briefly remind everyone about wallet security.

Yesterday, a friend contacted me saying that their wallet seemed to have been stolen. After inquiring about the situation, it was likely because this friend clicked on a phishing link and authorized recklessly, leading to asset theft, which is basically unrecoverable.

Sometimes, losing money is not as painful as losing your money before you even have a chance to lose it.

Therefore, we need to do at least two things for wallet security:

First, improve your security awareness. Do not click on unknown links to connect to your wallet. When participating in any project interaction/airdrop, carefully verify the corresponding addresses to avoid phishing. Periodically check wallet authorizations using security tools like Revoke Cash and OKX Approvals, and revoke any risky items. Try not to take screenshots of your mnemonic phrases or store them in plain text in cloud storage like Baidu Netdisk.

Second, implement tiered management for your wallets. This means planning different uses for different wallets, and the asset levels stored in wallets for different purposes should also vary. You should plan how to use small and large wallets accordingly.