Has Berachain ignited the trend of testnet projects for profit? Is the market's upcoming trend optimistic or pessimistic?
Source: Talking Li and Talking Outside
In the past few days, I've noticed many people online sharing their Berachain (commonly known as Bear Chain) airdrop achievements, and it seems that the arrival of Berachain's airdrop has reignited the trend of "farming" testnet projects.
I personally haven't paid much attention to airdrop information for quite some time because I can't keep up with it, and compared to spending time on airdrop interactions, I prefer to write articles and organize my thoughts. I remember writing quite a few airdrop projects and interaction tutorials in 2023, but since 2024, I've written very little, focusing more on scattered thoughts in the airdrop field. As shown in the picture below.
However, some partners in the group seem to be quite interested in the topic of testnet airdrops these days, and some are discussing and exchanging ideas with each other. It is said that the testnet odds for projects like Movement, Berachain, Omi, and Altlayer are still quite good, with high cost-effectiveness and no competition. Additionally, among several projects that have not issued tokens, the potential odds for testnet users of projects like Story, Sahara, Abstract.Initia, Humanity, and Caldera are also beginning to show signs. There is also the Monad testnet that everyone is discussing, which seems to be launching this month, and many people are already prepared to farm.
According to the summary from partners in the group, farming on the testnet doesn't cost money, but it does require effort or knowledge of scripts (to batch log in and farm). Overall, the odds are still quite good. I also noticed that some partners shared their gains from Berachain, and the airdrop query for Berachain has opened today (February 6), with some partners seemingly having good results. As shown in the picture below.
I remember that over a year ago, I also published an interaction guide for the Berachain project through Talking Li and Talking Outside, and I participated in testing a few times. However, not many people were able to stick with it. As shown in the picture below.
Now, the topic and attention around airdrops seem to be heating up. You can use some on-chain airdrop checking tools to monitor and ensure you don't miss out on claiming some projects, such as the Airdrops feature in DefiLlama (more airdrop tools can be obtained by messaging the keyword "tools" in the public account backend), as shown in the picture below.
1. Some kind reminders
However, I still want to kindly remind you that the overall market liquidity is still insufficient and heavily diluted. Various new projects seem to continue to frantically issue tokens and absorb liquidity. The speed at which new retail investors enter the market and new funds flow in is completely outpaced by the speed of various token issuers creating and unlocking tokens. Now, for most retail investors playing on-chain, it seems that it's not just a matter of who runs faster; it's that you don't even have a chance to run.
However, projects that have already been listed on exchanges (especially large exchanges like CB, BN, OK) are slightly better. Although many projects are also experiencing continuous declines, at least they won't directly run away or go to zero like on-chain projects; at least they will give you a chance to consider cutting losses.
Take Berachain (BERA) as an example. Its token supply is unlimited, and the total amount upon launch is 500 million tokens, with an annual inflation rate of 10%. 10 million BERA will be distributed as airdrops, and 107,480,000 BERA will be on the BN exchange. If you receive an airdrop, consider selling if you can; there's no need to stubbornly hold onto it for the so-called "big picture," but the final decision is yours, depending on your risk preference.
In terms of the overall market situation, it seems that most retail investors are quite pessimistic, especially after the sharp drop a couple of days ago, which hit many people's hearts hard, leaving a lot of bloodshed. Even those who weren't hit were quite frightened. However, in my previous articles, I expressed my core viewpoint that I remain optimistic.
So, why are many people pessimistic? It's still that old saying we've mentioned before: it ultimately depends on your own position. If you currently have a 50% position in BTC, 30% in stablecoins, and 20% in mainstream altcoins (like ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB, etc.), then there's really no need to be pessimistic. You could even take out 10% of your stablecoin position to play around with.
In the past, many people entered the market with high spirits, looking down on 2-3x odds, always thinking about hitting tenfold, dozens of times, or even wanting to get rich overnight. What happened? The market taught them a lesson, and now many people who are fully invested in meme coins seem to have changed their only wish from tenfold or hundredfold to just wanting to break even.
I actually went through a similar experience back in 2017-2018. During that time, I lost quite a bit of money because I didn't understand investing well, and I was busy with work, leaving me little time to learn about investment. I was quite naive about this matter and didn't listen to others' kind reminders. Indeed, for ordinary retail investors like me, only after experiencing the harsh market can one truly learn how to invest and seize opportunities that suit oneself. It's like that saying: "People teach people, but they can never teach them; only through experience can one learn."
The market is always cruel, and we are all just ordinary people. When necessary, learn to cut losses, don't harbor illusions, and don't get deeper into the pit. It's never too late to mend the fence after the sheep are lost.
Moreover, since you choose to gamble, you should be willing to accept the losses. Failure is not scary; at worst, you can summarize your experiences and start over. What’s scary is if you keep insisting on choosing to fail in one thing.
2. The market's upcoming trends
As for the market's trends, it may need to adjust for a while. It could adjust for 1-2 weeks or even 1-2 months; I don't know the exact timing and can't predict it. There are basically two possible outcomes:
The adjustment goes well, shaking off all the weak hands, cleaning out the positions that need to be liquidated, and then Bitcoin will reach new highs.
At most, it will deceive a few more times, and then the market will gradually turn bearish.
As for which outcome you lean towards, I don't care and can't control it. But if you've been following the articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside recently, you should know that I personally lean more towards the first outcome. Of course, given my current position, even if the second outcome occurs, I can still accept it calmly. I might even consider buying some more Bitcoin and a bit of Ethereum. In everything, you must learn to prepare for both outcomes.
Regarding the small positions in altcoins that I bought during 2023 and 2024:
FET, SOL, AAVE, ARB, and BANANA. Except for SOL, I will consider clearing out the rest within a few months.
Additionally, I have already cleared CHZ on May 20, 2024, and ORDI on January 10, 2025.
As for those altcoins or meme coins in my on-chain wallet (like ATOM, PEPE, etc.), they were mostly small amounts I bought while writing articles or participating in testing. I didn't take them seriously, and I don't count them in my total asset position. Whether they go to zero or not doesn't matter (I just glanced at a dozen wallet addresses I've used, and some have indeed gone to zero, haha).
Last year (2024), my original plan was to consider gradually clearing out altcoins when TOTAL2 reached a market cap of $2 trillion. However, due to changes in expectations for interest rate cuts in the US, the current overall liquidity issues in the market, and problems on-chain, plus the fact that my remaining altcoin positions are quite small and I have already strictly taken some profits, I don't want to overthink this matter. I will continue to hold onto Bitcoin (including some Ethereum and Bitcoin left in my cold wallet from the previous cycle).
This means that my trading discipline remains strictly unchanged, but my trading strategy can be adjusted moderately based on market changes. Additionally, my holdings and buying operations have been shared in previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, including a summary in the article from January 1, 2025. Those interested can search for or revisit the historical articles.
Recently, there has been a feeling that a larger black swan event or a bigger positive event might occur soon… who knows, let's continue to be patient.
3. Finally, let's review some noteworthy or interesting events from the past few days:
It is said that the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) is actively reassessing its regulatory approach to cryptocurrency-related activities, including replacing Financial Institution Letter (FIL) 16-2022, and providing a pathway for institutions to participate in cryptocurrency and blockchain-related activities while adhering to safety and soundness principles. In plain language, this means they may allow banks to provide cryptocurrency support for their customers. As shown in the picture below.
BlackRock plans to launch a Bitcoin ETP product in Europe. As shown in the picture below. ETPs and ETFs are both securities products; the only difference lies in their structure and investment methods. To summarize simply: all ETFs are ETPs, but not all ETPs are ETFs.
ETH ETF (February 4) saw its second-largest single-day inflow, with a total net inflow of $308 million. As shown in the picture below. Still, if you don't have confidence in ETH, then just don't buy it or sell it directly; there will definitely be someone to take over your position.
MicroStrategy announced it has changed its name to Strategy, and the name now includes the BTC logo. As shown in the picture below. Should I also change the name of "Talking Li and Talking Outside"? How about "Chatty BTC"? Haha.
According to statistics, 15 out of the 50 states in the US have proposed BTC reserve bills, with New Mexico now joining the list, and Ohio has reintroduced the bill. As shown in the picture below. I have always believed that the Bitcoin strategic reserve in the US seems to be becoming clearer, just like the expectations that BTC ETFs would be approved a few years ago. If the strategic reserve plan in the US is indeed approved in the future, it will have long-term and significant impacts. As for the narrative, it seems that the "narrative" is there, but it just lacks the "event." I am even starting to consider not selling the BTC in my position.
The US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data will be released on February 7. Partners interested in macroeconomics can pay attention to the related data changes at that time. As shown in the picture below.
The well-known on-chain data analysis firm Arkham (Arkham Intelligence) announced that it discovered $108 billion worth of BTC in wallets associated with Satoshi Nakamoto. As shown in the picture below. It's a good thing that no one knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is; it's not scary that Satoshi has money, but it's scary if Satoshi starts selling coins because Satoshi's legacy remains a stable pillar in crypto history and a spiritual support (the Bitcoin in Satoshi's address has remained untouched since it was created in January 2009).
Ondo launched the Ondo Global Markets platform, planning to bring stocks, bonds, and ETFs onto the blockchain. As shown in the picture below. The narrative of RWA continues to brew, and the institutions behind it are continuously laying out their strategies.
Alright, that's all for today.
