Bitwise's Top 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2025

Original authors: Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise

Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

2024 is a milestone year for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin soared to an all-time high of $103,992 (up 141.72% year-to-date as of the time of writing), primarily driven by the record issuance of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, which attracted $33.56 billion in assets. Other major crypto assets also saw significant gains: Solana rose 127.71%, XRP increased 285.23%, and Ethereum climbed 75.77%. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency-related stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase surged 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively.

Record prices are not the only noteworthy development. Cryptocurrencies have taken a prominent role in the 2024 U.S. elections, brightening the regulatory outlook for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. Elected President Trump supported cryptocurrencies during his campaign, promising to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve and restructure the SEC (which has historically been hostile towards cryptocurrencies). He also nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, who has stated that "cryptocurrency represents freedom, and the crypto economy will exist for the long term." As we enter 2024, Congress also appears to lean towards supporting cryptocurrencies, with pro-crypto candidates defeating opponents in several key elections. Legislative support for cryptocurrencies is expected in the coming months.

With global stimulus policies from China and other major central banks, increasing institutional adoption, and rapid improvements in blockchain technology, the outlook for 2025 looks quite bright.

TL;DR

01: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach new all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.

02: Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 will exceed those in 2024.

03: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage, with its stock price exceeding $700 per share.

04: 2025 will be the "year of crypto IPOs," with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S.

05: Tokens issued by AI agents will lead to a larger meme coin craze than in 2024.

06: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double.

07: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500, and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100, adding cryptocurrency exposure to (almost) every U.S. investor's portfolio.

08: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax guidance on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, leading to hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into crypto assets.

09: With the long-awaited stablecoin legislation passed in the U.S., the market cap of stablecoins will double to $400 billion.

10: As Wall Street's acceptance of cryptocurrencies deepens, the value of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization will exceed $50 billion.

Additional prediction: By 2029, Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market, with a trading price exceeding $1 million per coin.

Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach new all-time highs, with Bitcoin breaking $200,000

The three giants of cryptocurrency—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana—outperformed all major asset classes in 2024, rising 141.72%, 75.77%, and 127.71%, respectively. In contrast, the S&P 500 rose 28.07%, gold increased 27.65%, and bonds gained 3.40%.

This momentum is expected to carry into 2025, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all setting new historical highs. Specific target prices are as follows:

Bitcoin: $200,000

• Record ETF inflows driving Bitcoin to new highs in 2024

• This trend is expected to continue

• The April 2024 halving will reduce new supply

• New buying demand from corporations and governments

• If the U.S. government implements the proposal to establish a strategic reserve of 1 million Bitcoins, prices could reach $500,000 or higher

Ethereum: $7,000

• Despite a 75.77% rise in 2024, Ethereum's attention among investors has waned

• A narrative shift is expected in 2025

• Driving factors include:

• Accelerated activity on Layer 2 blockchains (like Base and Starknet)

• A spot Ethereum ETF attracting billions in inflows

• Massive growth of stablecoin and tokenization projects on Ethereum

Solana: $750

• Strong recovery in 2024 driven by meme coin frenzy

• Momentum is expected to continue strengthening

• The catalyst for 2025 will be the migration of "serious" projects to the network

• Early cases include the migration of the Render project

• This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming year

Catalysts

• Increased institutional investment

• Continued corporate buying

• Investment banks approving cryptocurrency operations

• U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan

• Improved regulatory and political environment

• Bitcoin halving leading to tighter supply

• Layer-2 scaling solutions

• Macro tailwinds (interest rate cuts, China's stimulus policies)

• Increased allocation ratios (3% becoming the new 1% standard)

Potential Headwinds

• Disappointing Washington policies

• Risk of leveraged liquidations

• Government sell-offs

• Meme coin craze failure

• Interest rate cuts falling short of expectations

Prediction 2: Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 will exceed those in 2024

When the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024, ETF experts predicted that the product group would attract $5 billion to $15 billion in inflows in its first year. In reality, it exceeded the upper limit of that range within the first six months. Since its launch, these record ETFs have attracted $33.6 billion in inflows. Inflows in 2025 are expected to exceed this figure. Three supporting reasons for this prediction:

1. The first year is typically the slowest for ETFs

• The best historical analogy for Bitcoin ETFs is the launch of the gold ETF in 2004

• That year, the gold ETF attracted $2.6 billion in inflows, which was encouraging

• But the subsequent years (numbers adjusted for inflation):

• Year 2: $5.5 billion

• Year 3: $7.6 billion

• Year 4: $8.7 billion

• Year 5: $16.8 billion

• Year 6: $28.9 billion

• The key point is that inflows in the second year exceeding the first year aligns with the development pattern of gold ETFs; a decrease in inflows would be unusual

2. Major investment banks are joining

• The largest global investment banks (including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo) have yet to unleash the power of their wealth management teams

• These financial advisors currently have little access to these products

• This situation is expected to change in 2025

• Trillions of dollars managed by these firms will begin flowing into Bitcoin ETFs

3. Investors are gradually increasing allocations—1% turning into 3% is becoming the new trend

Bitwise has observed a clear pattern over the past seven years while helping investment professionals enter the cryptocurrency market:

• Most investors start with small allocations and gradually increase over time

• It is expected that most investors who purchase Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will double their investments in 2025

Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage, with its stock price exceeding $700 per share

At the beginning of 2023, investors could purchase Coinbase stock for $35. Today, its stock price has reached $344, nearly a tenfold increase. Predictions indicate that this price may continue to rise significantly.

Prediction: Coinbase stock will exceed $700 in 2025 (more than doubling from the current price). This will make Coinbase the world's most valuable brokerage, surpassing Charles Schwab.

The reason is that Coinbase is more than just a brokerage.

Three main catalysts driving its growth:

1. Stablecoin business

• Thanks to an agreement with USDC issuer Circle, Coinbase's stablecoin business is thriving

• Year-to-date, stablecoin revenue has grown by $162 million (+31%)

• If the trajectory of stablecoin development meets expectations, this trend will continue

2. Base network

• Last year, Coinbase launched a new Layer 2 network, Base, based on Ethereum

• It currently leads in both trading volume and total value locked among L2 networks

• With growth comes substantial revenue

• Base now generates tens of millions of dollars in revenue each quarter

• As more developers, users, and capital flow into the ecosystem, this revenue is expected to grow further

3. Staking and custody services

• As of Q3, these two businesses generated $589 million in revenue

• This is an increase of $304 million (+106%) compared to the same period last year

• Both businesses are driven by asset balances and net new asset inflows

• Both metrics are expected to increase significantly in 2025

• Annual revenue from these business lines is expected to exceed $1 billion

Prediction 4: 2025 will be the "year of crypto IPOs," with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S.

The past few years have seen relatively few IPOs in the cryptocurrency space. However, 2025 is expected to usher in a wave of IPOs from crypto unicorns.

Why now?

The context for currently listed cryptocurrency companies is significantly different from previous years:

• Rising cryptocurrency prices

• Growing investor demand

• Surge in institutional adoption

• Blockchain technology has become mainstream

• Favorable macro environment

• Most importantly, the political environment has warmed

These factors collectively create favorable conditions for industry giants to go public.

Five major candidates for IPOs in 2025:

1. Circle

• Issuer of USDC (one of the largest stablecoins)

• Actively preparing for an IPO

• Holds a strong position in the stablecoin market

• Expanding into new financial services

2. Figure

• Known for providing various financial services using blockchain technology

• Offers mortgage, personal loan, and asset tokenization services

• Exploring IPO possibilities since 2023

• With Wall Street's increasing focus on tokenization, the timing may be ripe

3. Kraken

• One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S.

• Considering an IPO since 2021

• Plans delayed due to market conditions

• May regain momentum in 2025

4. Anchorage Digital

• Provides digital asset infrastructure services

• Diverse client base, including investment advisors, asset managers, and venture capital firms

• Holds federal charter bank status

• Comprehensive crypto services may prompt it to seek an IPO

5. Chainalysis

• Market leader in blockchain compliance and intelligence services

• Unique service offerings

• Strong growth trajectory

• With increasing compliance demands in the crypto industry, it is highly likely to enter the public market

Prediction 5: Tokens issued by AI agents will lead to a larger meme coin craze than in 2024

A larger meme coin craze than in 2024 is expected in 2025, with tokens issued by AI agents leading the charge.

GOAT case: The first collision of AI and meme coins

A notable case comes from a16z's Marc Andreessen interacting with the autonomous chatbot Truth Terminal. The AI agent promoted a niche meme coin called GOAT, which started as an experimental project and ultimately surpassed a market cap of $1.3 billion, showcasing the immense potential of the combination of AI and meme coins.

Clanker: A pioneering AI token issuance platform

Clanker is an innovative platform that enables autonomous token deployment on Coinbase's Layer 2 scaling solution, Base.

Users simply need to tag Clanker on Farcaster and provide the token name and image, and the AI agent can automatically complete the token deployment.

In just one month of operation, Clanker has issued over 11,000 tokens, generating over $10.3 million in fee revenue.

Future outlook

Tokens issued by AI are expected to drive a new wave of meme coins in 2025. Although these tokens may lack practical application value and most may ultimately go to zero, they represent the fusion of two breakthrough technologies: AI and cryptocurrency, a direction of innovation that will continue to attract market attention.

Prediction 6: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double

U.S. strategic reserve outlook

There remains uncertainty about whether the U.S. will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve in 2025. While there are positive signals:

• Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed legislation suggesting the U.S. purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years

• Elected President Trump has expressed support for this proposal

• However, according to Polymarket predictions, the likelihood is below 30%

Global competitive landscape

The U.S. consideration of establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve has already triggered a chain reaction globally:

• Legislators from Poland to Brazil are proposing legislation to establish their own Bitcoin strategic reserves

• Governments are accelerating their efforts to avoid missing out on the opportunity

Current status and future outlook

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net data:

• Currently, nine countries hold Bitcoin, with the U.S. leading

• This number is expected to double by 2025

Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500, and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100

Coinbase and MicroStrategy, two major publicly listed companies in the cryptocurrency space, will be included in mainstream stock indices, meaning that nearly all U.S. investors' portfolios will gain exposure to the cryptocurrency sector.

Market status

• Ordinary U.S. investors currently have no exposure to cryptocurrencies

• As an emerging asset class, many investors either do not understand it or actively choose to avoid it

• However, almost every investor holds funds tracking the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100

• Many investors hold both types of index funds simultaneously

Potential impact

Once these two companies are included in the indices, it will have a massive market impact:

• Approximately $10 trillion in assets directly track the S&P 500 index

• An additional $6 trillion in assets benchmark against this index

• Expected inflows into Coinbase after inclusion in the index:

• Index funds will need to buy about $1.5 billion in stock

• Benchmark funds may bring an additional $900 million in buying demand

• Although MicroStrategy will have a relatively smaller impact due to the smaller tracking fund size of the Nasdaq 100, it will still have a significant effect

Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax guidance on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans

In March 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor issued guidance warning 401(k) plan fiduciaries to be aware of the significant risks associated with cryptocurrency investment options, announcing an investigation project to protect plan participants from these risks.

With the arrival of a new government in Washington, the Department of Labor is expected to relax this strict guidance. The significance of this policy change can be seen in the data:

• U.S. 401(k) plans currently manage $8 trillion in assets

• These funds continue to receive new capital injections weekly

• If the allocation to cryptocurrencies reaches:

• 1%: it would bring $80 billion in new funds to the cryptocurrency sector

• 3%: it would bring $240 billion in new funds

Prediction 9: The market cap of stablecoins will double to $400 billion, and the U.S. will pass long-awaited stablecoin legislation

The stablecoin market will thrive in 2025, with a market cap reaching $400 billion or higher. This growth will be driven by several key factors:

Stablecoin legislation

Pro-crypto policymakers in Washington are most likely to achieve comprehensive stablecoin legislation. This will address important questions, including who will regulate and what the appropriate reserve requirements are. Clear regulations will spark immense interest from issuers, consumers, and businesses. Major traditional banks like JPMorgan are expected to enter this space.

Fintech integration

Stripe's $1.1 billion acquisition of the stablecoin platform Bridge has stated that stablecoins, with their speed, accessibility, and low cost, are becoming the "superconductors of financial services." PayPal launched its own stablecoin (PYUSD) in 2023, and Robinhood recently announced plans to collaborate with several cryptocurrency companies to launch a global stablecoin network. As stablecoins integrate into popular fintech applications, the asset management and transaction volumes of stablecoins will grow significantly.

Global trade and remittances

In 2024, stablecoin transaction volumes reached $8.3 trillion, close to Visa's $9.9 trillion payment volume during the same period. Stablecoin giant Tether recently provided financing for a $45 million oil transaction through its USDT stablecoin. As the digital dollar continues to disrupt these massive markets, demand for stablecoins will continue to grow.

Bull market growth

As the most obvious catalyst, the overall expansion of the cryptocurrency market will drive growth in stablecoin asset management. The cryptocurrency market is bullish in 2025, and the stablecoin market will grow alongside it.

Prediction 10: As Wall Street accelerates its entry, the scale of RWA tokenization will exceed $50 billion

Three years ago, the cryptocurrency industry had tokenized less than $2 billion of real-world assets (RWAs), including private credit, U.S. debt, commodities, and stocks. Today, this market size has reached $13.7 billion.

The significant growth in tokenization is primarily due to its clear advantages: it offers instant settlement, costs far below traditional securitization, and 24/7 liquidity, while providing transparency and accessibility for nearly all asset classes.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has transformed from a Bitcoin skeptic to a staunch supporter of tokenization, stating that "security tokenization will become the next generation of market form." This statement from the head of the world's largest asset management company carries significant weight.

Wall Street has only just begun to recognize this, indicating that a large influx of institutional funds may soon flow into the tokenization of RWAs.

By 2025, the market size for tokenized RWAs is expected to reach $50 billion, with the potential for exponential growth thereafter.

Venture capital firm ParaFi recently predicted that the market size for tokenized RWAs could grow to $2 trillion by the 2030s, while the Global Financial Markets Association forecasts it could reach $16 trillion.

Additional prediction: By 2029, Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market, with a price exceeding $1 million

While people tend to make one-year predictions, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is even more remarkable.

It is expected that by 2029, Bitcoin's market cap will surpass that of the gold market. Based on the current market cap of gold, this means that the price of each Bitcoin will exceed $1 million.

There is a reason for choosing 2029 as the time frame: Bitcoin has historically operated on a four-year cycle. Although this pattern may not necessarily continue, 2029 will mark the peak of the next cycle (also the 20th anniversary of Bitcoin's inception). Surpassing the gold market within 20 years of its inception is undoubtedly a significant achievement, but Bitcoin is poised to achieve this goal.

Notably, if the U.S. announces the purchase of 1 million Bitcoins to establish a strategic reserve, the timeline for Bitcoin to exceed $1 million could be significantly accelerated.