Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/12/9)

1. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l Market caution intensifies, retail trading volume drops significantly, 10x Research suggests focusing on core assets
On December 9, 10x Research released an analysis indicating that as the Christmas holiday approaches, the market environment has become increasingly cautious, and the risk of sideways consolidation has also increased. Retail trading volume has significantly decreased, with cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea dropping from a peak of $25 billion to the current $6.6 billion. Meanwhile, Binance's spot trading volume has fallen from $60 billion to $24 billion, indicating that overall momentum is weakening. Given these trends, now is an appropriate time to reduce leverage, consolidate positions, and focus on high-conviction core assets.
For Bitcoin, the key support level is at $95,000. If the price breaks above $100,000, this could present a strong buying opportunity; however, if it falls below $95,000, traders should proceed with caution and carefully manage risk.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Inflows into digital asset investment products hit a record high of $3.85 billion
According to Coinshares' latest weekly report, last week saw a record inflow of $3.85 billion into digital asset investment products, breaking the previous record set a few weeks ago. Ethereum's weekly inflow also reached a new high of $1.2 billion, surpassing the inflow during the ETF launch in July. Meanwhile, Solana experienced an outflow of $14 million. The inflow into blockchain stocks reached $124 million, the largest since January of this year. Bitcoin saw inflows of $2.5 billion, bringing the total inflow year-to-date to $36.5 billion. In contrast, inflows into Bitcoin shorts were only $6.2 million, indicating that investors remain cautious while betting on recent strong price momentum; historically, inflows tend to increase significantly after substantial price rises.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l Microsoft shareholder meeting to decide on Bitcoin investment, proposal draws widespread attention
On December 11, Beijing time, Microsoft will advance an important proposal at its annual shareholder meeting—assessing through shareholder votes whether incorporating Bitcoin into its balance sheet aligns with the long-term interests of shareholders. This vote is considered one of the key events influencing cryptocurrency market trends this week.
The shareholder proposal was initially submitted by the American conservative think tank National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR). NCPPR pointed out that during ongoing inflation, a company's success relies not only on operational performance but also on the preservation of profits. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the average inflation rate in the U.S. over the past four years has been 5%, while NCPPR believes the actual inflation rate may be higher. Therefore, companies have a responsibility to protect profits from depreciation. However, Microsoft has failed to effectively protect its assets from depreciation by investing most of its assets in U.S. government securities and corporate bonds. NCPPR noted in the proposal that despite Bitcoin's volatility, it is still viewed as an excellent inflation hedge, possibly the best option. Therefore, NCPPR recommends that Microsoft consider allocating at least 1% of its assets to Bitcoin.
As of Q3 2024, Microsoft's cash reserves amount to $78.428 billion. This means that if the proposal passes smoothly and at least 1% of the funds are allocated as suggested by NCPPR, Microsoft would have the capacity to purchase at least $780 million worth of Bitcoin.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem thriving, Stacks to launch sBTC
On December 9, Bitcoin scaling solution Stacks announced the latest updates, indicating that the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem is thriving on its platform, with sBTC set to launch soon. Recent highlights include: USDh annual yield of up to 35% provided by Hermetica, setting a new historical high; Velar DEX launching permissionless pool creation features; Bitflow releasing a user interface preview for L2 Runes AMM; and the ALEX Surge event continuing to drive activity in the tokenized community on Stacks. These developments mark significant progress for Stacks in promoting innovation and application within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

3. Hot Narratives

l Pudgy Penguins posts "The calm before the storm," possibly hinting at upcoming token launch
The Ethereum blue-chip NFT project "Pudgy Penguins," known for its cute penguin imagery, announced on Twitter on the morning of December 6 that it will launch its official token $PENGU on the Solana chain, with plans to issue the token in December 2024. Yesterday, Pudgy Penguins posted on X "The calm before the storm," suggesting that the token launch is imminent, and Solana co-founder Toly also retweeted the post. The total supply of $PENGU is 88,888,888,888, with the Pudgy community receiving 25.9% of the tokens and other communities receiving 24.12%. Pudgy Penguins reminds users that the token has not yet been released, and malicious actors may create counterfeit websites and tokens, urging users not to interact with these sites or contract addresses.

2. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Project Introduction
l $JAIL | AI | @jailbreakme_xyz
- An AI model vulnerability testing platform aimed at enabling companies to test their AI models and agents in a distributed environment to identify timely vulnerabilities and weaknesses before production deployment.
- Participants can earn rewards by successfully "jailbreaking" to discover vulnerabilities in AI models.
- This project allows developers to stress-test their LLMs and improve their infrastructure for training AI agents.

3. Attention Value - Sector Rotation

1. Hot Sectors

Source: Dune, Dot Labs

Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Sector Internals

Source: Dune, Dot Labs