Trump returns to the White House, what will happen to Bitcoin after reaching a historical high?

Author: Rhythm Little Worker, BlockBeats

The election dust has settled, and Trump has been re-elected as President of the United States.

Funds have long been restless, and Bitcoin surged violently when it turned positive in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, with the super asset worth trillions quickly rising by 3 points, breaking through key integer levels consecutively. The market has finally awaited Bitcoin's historical new high.

$75,000, a brand new future.

A new high means everything will be re-planned. So how do top traders view Bitcoin after Trump's election? Rhythm BlockBeats has compiled some insights for reference.

Impact of Trump's Presidency on Bitcoin

PlanB: BTC Expected to Reach $1 Million by the End of 2025

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, enjoying a high reputation in the crypto industry for its unique asset scarcity and price relationship model. His analysis focuses on the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin's value, especially the price fluctuations after halving events. His latest prediction indicates that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may experience an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to showcase the price development direction of Bitcoin under different market scenarios.

In a prediction made months ago, PlanB provided specific figures based on his S2F model:

October: Classic Surge Month, BTC Reaches $70,000

PlanB predicts that Bitcoin's price will experience a strong rise in October. He believes that the surge may be driven by increased global market volatility and a restoration of investor confidence, which has historically been a time when Bitcoin has shown significant price surges.

November: Trump Wins Election, Bitcoin Price Reaches $100,000

If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes Bitcoin will reach a significant turning point. He points out that Trump's presidency may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, ending the current "war" on cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially as the policy checks from regulatory officials like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren will push Bitcoin's price directly up to $100,000.

December: Massive Inflows into ETFs, Bitcoin Soars to $150,000

PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear obstacles for Bitcoin ETF approvals, expecting a massive influx of funds into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents mainstream financial market acceptance and investor trust, further driving Bitcoin's price to $150,000.

January 2025: Crypto Industry Returns to the U.S., Bitcoin Climbs to $200,000

With the Trump administration's openness to cryptocurrency policies, many crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the U.S. PlanB expects this to create significant market demand, pushing Bitcoin's price to $200,000.

February 2025: "Power Law" Team Takes Profits, Price Drops to $150,000

The February correction is a prediction of adjustments in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that profit-taking by investors will lead to a brief drop in Bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next phase of growth.

March to May 2025: Globalization Trend of Bitcoin, Price Breaks $500,000

Starting in March, PlanB expects countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai to successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and from April, under Trump's push, the U.S. will also initiate a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Following this, in May, he believes other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, further pushing Bitcoin to $500,000.

June 2025: AI Boosts, Price Reaches $600,000

In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that AI begins to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He predicts that as AI participates in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive prices up, pushing Bitcoin past $600,000.

July to December 2025: FOMO Fades, Price Reaches $1 Million

In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin will not only become a mainstream asset reserve but also an essential allocation for global investors.

2026-2027 --- Market Adjustment and Bear Market

In 2026, PlanB expects Bitcoin's price to pull back from $1 million to $500,000, entering a distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.

PlanB concluded that the key to this prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He pointed out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin's price is expected to leap in growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to solidify its position as "digital gold" among global investors.

The key to PlanB's prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He pointed out that investors favor scarcity, and there are currently basically three options for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market cap $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market cap $20 trillion), or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market cap $1 trillion). Therefore, Bitcoin's scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold.

Alex Krüger: Spot BTC Dominates on Election Night

Argentinian economist, trader, and consultant Alex Krüger believes that the election results will directly affect Bitcoin's price direction:

Trump Wins: Bitcoin Year-End Target Price $90,000. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price will quickly surge to $90,000 before the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin's price will "soar rapidly," as the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there remains a certain degree of price undervaluation, and the market's rapid response will be reflected shortly after the news is confirmed.

Krüger emphasizes the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He points out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will rise rapidly. Krüger's personal strategy is to hold unleveraged positions (mainly in Bitcoin and some tech stocks like Nvidia), believing that one should focus on spot holdings to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

At the same time, Krüger stated that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market. He noted that the ups and downs of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, as Bitcoin's price is highly correlated with U.S. stock indices. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects friendlier cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures to drive the stock market higher, thereby benefiting Bitcoin.

Currently, Krüger points out that the market has partially priced in Trump's victory. Regarding strategies for election night, Krüger stated that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot and take long positions when Trump wins, such as increasing holdings in Solana (SOL).

The Giver: Midterm Drop After Election

The Giver is an anonymous seasoned investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in private equity investment in special situations, providing a different perspective. The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focuses on the short term compared to Krüger and PlanB. He believes that the Bitcoin surge driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes market liquidity and the driving effects of short-term events, pointing out that Bitcoin may face a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is as follows:

The driving force behind this Bitcoin surge comes from event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, namely some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than due to an overall trend. These buyers are unlikely to hold Bitcoin long-term, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, this capital lacks "stickiness," and Bitcoin's price may face selling pressure after the election.

The underperformance of altcoins is related to Bitcoin's concentration. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin and has not widely flowed into altcoins, leading to the poor performance of altcoins. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool rather than a positive for the entire crypto market.

The Giver expects that this week, Bitcoin's open contracts and positions will remain crowded, even reaching new highs. He points out that this "right-side effect" may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin's price, but limited by the limited market capacity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to persist into the next year. This short-term effect increases the likelihood of Bitcoin's price peaking before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is insufficient to support a long-term upward trend.

Markus: Long BTC and Short SOL Hedging Strategy

Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, gaining rapid fame in the investment community for his highly accurate prediction of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap a few months ago.

Markus's latest analysis is based on 10X Research's latest signal model, which has an accuracy rate of 73% to 87%, typically realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues to follow historical trends, it may rise 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's price could break $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach around $140,000 by April 29, 2025.

Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election outcomes on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts Bitcoin may rise 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will bring a more favorable policy environment for cryptocurrencies, likely driving the market up.

Of course, he has also prepared hedges for unexpected situations, so Markus's recommended strategy is to "go long on Bitcoin and short on Solana" to hedge against the uncertainties brought by the election. However, Markus also points out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered Analyst: If Trump Wins, BTC Will Rise to $125,000 by Year-End

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the election in November, Bitcoin's price could rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.

Kendrick's model shows that on election day (November 5), Bitcoin may stabilize around $73,000. In the case of Trump's victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, with a further expected increase of 10% in the following days, driven mainly by rising market confidence and a more relaxed regulatory environment.

Who Becomes President, and How Do Other Assets React?

The market generally believes that trading after Trump's victory will be complex. Bullish asset classes include gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, while U.S. stocks and the dollar may show short-term gains but a mid-term correction trend. Conversely, assets like oil, U.S. Treasuries, and copper may face some bearish impacts.

U.S. Stocks

If Trump wins, small-cap stocks and specific industries are expected to benefit, particularly traditional energy, firearms manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. Due to Trump's inclination towards low taxes and reduced regulation, especially positively affecting domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and mining industries may drive small-cap stocks higher. The Russell 2000 index (small-cap benchmark) has already begun to reflect this expectation, rising about 4% since early October.

Dollar and Forex Market

The expectation of Trump's victory has already manifested in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Mexican peso, which is seen as one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policies. Market volatility has also significantly increased as Trump's election prospects have risen, with the MSCI Latin America Currency Index dropping over 3%, while the dollar has strengthened significantly following Trump's statements on tariffs on Mexican goods.

Oil and Copper

If Trump wins, the traditional energy sector (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trump's supportive policies. Trump's energy policy tends to reduce regulation and support domestic extraction and fossil fuel use, which will positively impact related markets.

U.S. Treasuries

Trump's victory is a short-term positive for U.S. Treasuries. In the interest rate and bond market, market analysts indicate that smart money has begun to pay attention to the bond market. U.S. Treasury yields may rise due to expectations of Trump's victory, and in the long term, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, U.S. Treasuries may face greater selling pressure.

Gold

As the most traditional inflation hedge, gold seems likely to continue rising regardless of who wins. Analysts generally believe that the U.S. government's debt problem will continue to expand and will dilute debt through inflation, making gold and Bitcoin the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Gold, due to its safe-haven attributes, will attract investors to cope with potential dollar depreciation pressures and economic uncertainties.

However, Standard Chartered analysts point out that gold is more likely to rise after Trump's victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending after Trump's victory, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase demand for gold.

Suddenly Becoming a Loyal Crypto Player, How Much Does Trump Like Bitcoin?

Once upon a time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, during his presidency, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "worthless" and believing that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He stated that Bitcoin "is not money" and is extremely volatile.

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to hold a reserved attitude in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the dollar should be the world's only reserve currency. During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was generally negative. However, the NFT craze in 2021 quickly began to influence Trump's views.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "winter," with many crypto projects on the brink of bankruptcy and market confidence low. At this moment, Trump's long-time advisor Bill Zank appeared in his life, bringing a suggestion that would change Trump's mind: to issue Trump-themed NFTs.

Trump showed unexpected interest in this idea—however, he did not like the term "NFT" and preferred to call it "digital trading cards." Although it seemed strange, these cards became very popular, selling for $99 each and almost selling out immediately after release. Trump's NFTs surprisingly brought him into the crypto community for the first time, not only generating tens of millions of dollars in revenue but also revealing a new and powerful support group for him.

As a result, Trump's attitude towards crypto has undergone a complete reversal over the years.

November 1, 2024, marks the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper's release. Trump tweeted his blessings for Bitcoin and stated that if elected, he would end the Harris administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, even calling on supporters to help him realize the vision of "Bitcoin Made in America." At this point, he was no longer an opponent, nor merely a bystander, but a "presidential candidate" who supports crypto.

One of the most iconic events was his attendance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, even clearly understanding the biggest pain points in the crypto community, promising to fire current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a "regulator who understands crypto."

He bluntly stated that "opposing crypto is the wrong policy," and he would make America a "Bitcoin superpower," hoping to lead the global crypto industry through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, stating that if Bitcoin were to "moon," he hopes America would be the leader in that endeavor.

Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source: WSJ

In his speech, Trump vigorously positioned himself against the Democrats' harsh stance on crypto, especially contrasting himself with Elizabeth Warren, known for her crypto regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he would create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Committee." This statement immediately sparked enthusiastic applause and cheers from the audience. More shockingly, he suggested that Bitcoin's market cap could one day surpass gold and publicly criticized the anti-crypto policies of the Biden and Harris administrations.

During the conference, Trump seemed to undergo a "public awakening," no longer the former president who held a skeptical attitude towards cryptocurrencies, but rather a spirited defender of Bitcoin and free markets. The audience was inspired by his change in attitude, viewing him as a "hero" in the crypto community.

Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source: The New York Times

Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrencies. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had risen 3900% during his last presidential term, soaring from under $1,000 to over $30,000. His speech not only ignited the audience but also garnered support from crypto industry giants, such as Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and Marc Andreessen, founder of venture capital giant A16Z, who all expressed support for his crypto policies.

Beyond Bitcoin itself, Trump has also gradually recognized the importance of Bitcoin mining in U.S. energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives from several large Bitcoin mining companies in the U.S. and promised to strongly support cryptocurrency mining activities in policy. He even posted on Truth Social, stating that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins are made in America." In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity; it symbolizes America's will to resist central banks.

Entering September, Trump used Bitcoin to purchase a cheeseburger at a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York, an act that also promoted the possibility of Bitcoin transitioning from a financial investment to a daily transaction currency, becoming a symbol of his crypto stance.

Trump has also made bigger commitments to the crypto community, publicly stating that he would retain Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and plans to pardon Ross Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life in prison for operating a darknet platform. Through these radical moves, Trump has successfully crafted himself into the "savior" of the crypto community, promising to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and pledging to make America the center of global cryptocurrencies.

As the suspense of whether Trump will return to the White House looms, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. Over the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainties have driven Bitcoin step by step towards new heights. If Trump regains power, his support for cryptocurrencies could undoubtedly trigger a new wave in the market, taking Bitcoin to new heights and even reshaping America's financial landscape.