Super Week of the U.S. Election: Upcoming Timeline, Key Highlights, and Subsequent Impact

Author: @Web3Mario

Abstract: In the coming week, there is no doubt that global attention will focus on the U.S. elections. Therefore, I took some time to carefully outline the upcoming timelines and core highlights, as well as to look ahead at the subsequent impacts. Overall, starting from Tuesday, November 5, the election results will be announced successively over the following week, and during this period, the progress of the results will continue to affect asset prices.

Due to different election policies in various states, the announcement of U.S. election results will last about a week

While chatting with friends around me, I found that everyone is not very clear about the rhythm of the upcoming week. Many believe that results will be available on the evening of November 5 (the morning of the 6th Beijing time). In fact, due to different policies in each state regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there are discrepancies in the announcement of results. So first, I would like to explain the timeline of the U.S. presidential election. Starting with the overall election rhythm, the timeline is as follows:

1. Election Day: The U.S. presidential election is typically set for the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Voters will cast their ballots for presidential and vice-presidential candidates on this day. This is an indirect election, as voters are actually voting for members of the electoral college from their state.

2. Electoral College Voting: The U.S. uses an electoral college system. The number of electoral votes for each state is determined by the number of congressional representatives from that state (number of House members + number of Senators), totaling 538 electoral votes. Most states use a "winner-takes-all" rule, meaning that winning a majority of votes in a state grants the candidate all of that state's electoral votes (Maine and Nebraska are exceptions). A presidential candidate must obtain at least 270 electoral votes to win.

3. Formal Electoral College Voting: Members of the electoral college vote on the second Monday of December to officially elect the president and vice president. The voting results are sealed and submitted to Congress for certification.

4. Congress Certification: In early January of the following year, the new Congress will hold a meeting on January 6 to officially count the electoral votes. If there are no objections, the election results for president and vice president will be confirmed.

5. Presidential Inauguration: The elected president and vice president will take their oaths of office on January 20, officially becoming the new president and vice president, starting their four-year term.

Thus, on November 5, U.S. time, most swing states will begin voting at 6 a.m. and continue until 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. After voting ends, the counting process begins. However, due to different state policies, the timing of result announcements varies. Here’s a summary of some key states where results are often announced later:

1. California: California allows a longer mail-in ballot receipt period. Mail-in ballots only need to be postmarked on Election Day and arrive by a specified date to be counted. Additionally, due to the state's large population and extended counting time, it is often one of the last states to announce complete results.

2. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania typically begins processing mail-in ballots only on Election Day, which slows down the counting process, especially in years with a high number of mail-in ballots. As a key swing state, the vote count in Pennsylvania is usually closely watched, but the counting process is relatively delayed. Therefore, final results are announced several days after Election Day.

3. Michigan and Wisconsin: These two states also process mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and as swing states, close vote margins can lead to longer counting times to ensure accuracy. Typically, ballot processing is completed by the evening of the following day.

4. Nevada: Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, so results may be delayed for a few days, especially in election years with a high volume of ballots.

5. North Carolina: North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked before or on Election Day. This often delays the announcement of final results, which typically occurs a week later.

You may notice that aside from California, which is a stronghold for the Democratic Party, most are swing states, with Pennsylvania being a key battleground state. Therefore, the entire game surrounding the election will reach a climax a few days after the popular vote concludes.

House elections are also very important as they determine the implementation of the U.S. fiscal policy in the future

In addition to the presidential election, the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections are equally important. We know that in the U.S. federal government, the president, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The president holds executive power, while the Senate and the House (collectively known as Congress) share legislative power. These three branches are both independent and closely related to achieve checks and balances. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:

• Legislation: The House drafts and votes on bills, completing legislative functions together with the Senate.
• Fiscal Power: The U.S. Constitution stipulates that all fiscal and tax bills must be introduced in the House first to ensure direct representation for taxpayers.
• Impeachment Power: The House has the authority to initiate impeachment against the president or federal officials, but the trial power belongs to the Senate.

Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House determines the difficulty for the president to implement his economic policies. A president whose party does not hold a majority in the House is often referred to as a "minority president," making it generally very difficult to push through legislation. The House elections are held every two years, and in election years, the House elections and presidential elections are usually held on the same day, typically on the first Tuesday of November in even-numbered years. On this day, voters will cast their votes for the president and all 435 House seats. Thus, the results of the two elections are usually announced in a similar timeframe, although the specific order may vary. However, generally speaking, due to smaller House districts, the counting of ballots is faster, so the results are usually available earlier.

Looking ahead to the subsequent impacts of the election results

In previous articles, we have analyzed the economic policies of both parties. Here, I will briefly review them. The Democratic Party, represented by Harris, primarily focuses on "opportunity economics" as its core economic framework. In summary, it aims to increase government investment and raise taxes to improve the income levels of middle-class families in housing, healthcare, education, and daily necessities. The market generally expects that Harris's economic policies will further increase the fiscal burden on the government and undermine the credibility of the dollar. Meanwhile, the wealth effect brought about by extensive monetary easing will help push up inflation. However, due to government intervention in controlling the prices of daily necessities, I believe inflation will be on a gradually accelerating upward trend.

Trump's economic approach can be summarized in three dimensions: first, low taxes domestically and high tariffs externally; second, using measures like interest rate cuts to lower the dollar's exchange rate against major manufacturing countries; and finally, opposing the new energy industry while advocating for the traditional energy sector. This policy is closely related to the interest groups behind him—the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although isolationist and trade protection policies have shown clear effects in combating foreign products and revitalizing U.S. low-end manufacturing, considering the current industrial structure in the U.S., the implementation of these policies will take time and will be accompanied by high inflationary pressures. Even Trump must consider how to leverage the dollar's hegemonic position to alleviate these issues.

There are some indications that he may choose to achieve this goal through Bitcoin. This is because Trump has repeatedly expressed concern about "American Bitcoin production capacity." He advocates ensuring that the remaining Bitcoin will be produced in the U.S. Considering his support for traditional energy industries, stimulating Bitcoin mining, which is an energy-intensive industry, could help increase oil demand and add value to the industry. Furthermore, Trump's views on Bitcoin have significantly changed during his current term, shifting from initially not recognizing Bitcoin's value to acknowledging its value as a commodity. The logic behind this shift is still related to the dollar's pricing power advantage. Since the liquidity of Bitcoin is primarily maintained through stablecoins pegged to the dollar, the dollar effectively holds the pricing power over Bitcoin. By recognizing Bitcoin as a commodity and actively promoting this consensus globally, dollar capital can establish an advantage in this field, thereby achieving profit harvesting.

Therefore, based on the above, I believe that if Harris is elected, the "Trump trade" will quickly collapse, and BTC prices will rapidly pull back, but will then re-enter a phase of fluctuating upward movement. Other altcoin assets, particularly those of the security token type, will experience a bull market influenced by the wealth effect, resembling the broad rally after the pandemic-induced monetary easing in 2021. If Trump is elected, BTC prices may initially experience a "sell the truth" phenomenon with some profit-taking operations, but in the subsequent cycle, BTC prices will quickly enter an upward channel. However, it will be more challenging for the altcoin market to experience a comprehensive bull market; instead, it will likely reflect the wealth effect brought about by BTC appreciation, with funds rotating among multiple hot sectors, resembling the market trends after late 2023.

Of course, if the elected candidate becomes a "minority president," the situation will become more complex, and we will need to continue monitoring the economic policy battles between the two parties. Any proposed legislation will undergo intense market negotiations, leading to significantly increased price volatility.