The U.S. election introduces new variables, and the crypto market plunges overnight?
Market conditions often experience significant fluctuations around the U.S. election day.Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On October 30, Bitcoin failed to reach a new all-time high, having risen above $73,600, just $100 short of $73,777. Unfortunately, the momentum faded afterward, and after several rounds of fluctuations and consolidations, it ultimately declined. By around 9 PM on October 31, BTC accelerated its drop, briefly dipping to around $68,800, and has since rebounded to around $69,500.
After rising above $2,700, ETH also experienced a significant drop, hitting a low of around $2,500, erasing gains from the previous days. Altcoins saw a widespread decline.
In terms of contract data, $276 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $247 million in long positions liquidated.
Why did Bitcoin fail to break the all-time high? How will the market trend moving forward?
Harris Leads in Swing State Support Ahead of U.S. Election
The U.S. presidential election will officially begin on November 5, and the market often experiences significant fluctuations in the days leading up to it.
Looking back at the BTC market on the day of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency market saw a decline in the two days prior, followed by a rise on the day the election results were announced, and then another decline in the following two days before rising again.
Additionally, according to a recent poll reported by Forbes, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of just 1%. In seven key swing states that could determine the final election outcome, Harris has a support rate of 49% compared to Trump's 48%. A week ago, Trump led Harris with a support rate of 50% to 46%.
This change in numbers increases the uncertainty of the election results. After opening lower, U.S. stocks extended their losses, with tech stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks also experiencing a collective decline.
However, data from Polymarket shows that Trump's probability of winning is significantly higher than Harris's.
Some cautious funds have chosen to exit and wait for the U.S. election results to settle.
Future Market Trends
Bitcoin has shown strong investment returns in the fourth quarter following its halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with returns of 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. Notably, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and in November 2020, it was 42.95%. The return rate for this month is still worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin recorded a 7.35% increase in September this year, marking its best performance historically. Historically, every time Bitcoin has closed up in September, it has continued to rise until the end of the year.
Zhao Changpeng Hints at a Bull Market in 2025
Zhao Changpeng, during an interview at the main venue of Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, stated that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through very clear four-year cycles. The years 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, 2012 was a "recovery year," which many people do not trace back to. 2016 was also a "recovery year," followed by a surge in 2017. Similarly, 2020 was a "recovery year," and 2021 was a bull market.
Therefore, based on current analysis, 2024 should also be a "recovery year." What will happen next year is unclear, but in the long run, the outlook for the entire industry remains very positive.
Standard Chartered Analyst: Trump's Victory Will Propel Bitcoin to $125,000 by Year-End
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin prices may see a correction before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, and volatility is expected to increase in the coming days. As traders choose to close positions for profit before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking above the historical high of $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) achieves a significant victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin prices will experience greater volatility, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $125,000 by year-end and triggering a new wave of altcoin enthusiasm.
