Matrixport Research: Market sentiment is cautious, and it is recommended to pay attention to the following key annual events
Cryptocurrency assets did not benefit from this week's favorable macro data and, constrained by summer challenges, BTC remains in a phase of volatility and consolidation.The latest data shows that U.S. retail sales expenditure increased by 1% month-on-month in July, reaching $709.7 billion. Strong consumer spending has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a potential economic recession. U.S. stocks reacted positively, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones achieving six consecutive gains as of Thursday's close. However, crypto assets did not benefit from this macro data, and BTC remains in a phase of consolidation due to summer challenges.
Over the past decade, BTC has risen more than 227% overall, with a 56% increase in the summer, and it is expected to see a rebound in the fourth quarter. Based on historical data and last year's trends, BTC may also experience an increase in the fourth quarter of this year. To prepare for the upcoming market in the next few months, it is recommended to pay attention to the following events that could influence BTC's performance by the end of the year.
U.S. Inflation Rate Drops, Probability of Fed Rate Cut in September Rises to 74%
The U.S. inflation rate has fallen to 2.9%, well below the psychological threshold of 3.0%. This drop paves the way for discussions on rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 18, 2024. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 74%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 26%. If a rate cut is implemented, it will be the first since the rate hike cycle began in July 2023, marking the longest gap between a recent rate hike cycle and the first rate cut in the history of U.S. monetary policy.
Powell to Address September Rate Cut Window Next Friday
According to Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at 10:00 PM Beijing time next Friday. This will be the first full day of the annual economic symposium held by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This global central bank annual meeting provides Powell with an opportunity to make the latest assessment of the U.S. economic trajectory and monetary policy outlook between the Fed's July and September decision-making meetings. Last month, he indicated that if inflation and the labor market continue to cool, the Fed may consider a rate cut at its next meeting.
Harris Leads Polls Over Trump, Market Closely Watches Harris's Stance on Crypto Assets
Polls indicate that Harris is the most promising candidate to win the election on November 5, 2024. However, unlike other candidate Trump, Harris's stance on crypto assets remains unknown. Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at repairing relationships within the cryptocurrency industry, but Harris has yet to attend. Harris's cryptocurrency policy position could influence the future direction of BTC.
