Consensus Conference Essay: The Consensus Conference with the Least "Consensus"

Author: Haotian

Sharing a short essay about the Hong Kong Consensus conference:

1) As with previous conferences, many people were running around the side events near the main venue. Coupled with unfamiliarity with the HK map, the combination of attending events and dinner appointments left me utterly exhausted. The physical fatigue is beyond words. However, that's nothing compared to the mental exhaustion; it's a constant rollercoaster, when will it end?

2) Despite the challenging environment, both large and small events were still bustling with people, and the atmosphere was anything but bearish. Perhaps most attendees came for the "emotional value," with Solana's ecosystem being the real crowd-puller, as events were packed to the brim, even catching the attention of the authorities. In contrast, related events for Ethereum and BTC layer 2 were much less lively. It can only be said that amidst the chaos, one group finishes their performance while another takes the stage; they too once had their glory.

3) Although it is called the Consensus conference, the more people I meet, the more I feel this is the least "consensus" consensus conference ever? The "consensus" of the entire industry is being severely torn apart. The technical narrative of PVE consensus is overshadowed by the MEME narrative of PVP consensus. The diamond-handed holders' consensus is embarrassed to speak in front of the young traders' consensus. The old guard's technical build consensus feels out of place compared to some marketing-driven tokenomics projects that shine. It seems like a divergence of consensus, but behind it is the collapse of a unified value system in the industry. After Consensus, perhaps Polarization will become the norm.

4) Many veterans in the crypto space have expressed that "the market environment has changed." In fact, the market is never wrong; it's just that the old experiences of seasoned investors are no longer applicable. Veteran investors used the logic of past bull-bear cycles to trade cryptocurrencies, only to find that the four-year cycle has failed. The market now defines bull markets around hot narratives, coming like the wind and leaving without a trace. When you are still confidently proclaiming that the bull market has just begun, it has already ended.

5) There’s no need to complain that making money in the market has become difficult; it’s just that the audience for making money has changed, and so have the models and logic. The current market is flooded with assets, and market attention controls liquidity wealth. Young traders born in the 2000s dare to take risks, making a profit and then running away. They have the energy and courage, becoming the lucky ones in this round of PVP narrative. In contrast, the diamond-handed PVE mindset of veteran investors has no chance of winning. However, every PVP wealth feast ultimately sees a large withdrawal of liquidity, and it’s unclear how long this squid game can continue.

6) I can sense the despondency of a group of idealistic builders adhering to technical narratives. This sense of disappointment feels different from before. As an old OG put it, the technical roadmap has been implemented step by step, the TGE has been conducted as required, the community has been maintained, and the narrative has been continuously updated with hot topics, yet the coin price just can’t seem to rise. Those who work with idealism, if they do not receive corresponding rewards from the market for a long time, does it mean the exhaustion of innovative power? If the crypto space loses its idealistic geek spirit, what spirit will the crypto industry use to counter the external stigma of being a casino? Is there no need for even pretense anymore?

7) Most people involved with AI Agents are suffering significant losses, yet many still firmly believe in the future of the AI + Crypto narrative. I have always emphasized that aside from the short-term application value of AI Agents, their ability to activate and reorganize the value of past narratives like layer 2, ZK, modularization, and chain abstraction is key. They can provide new build directions for old narratives and create possibilities for previously unimplemented infrastructure. In summary, the sacrifices brought about by the current bubble burst of AI Agents are trivial compared to their future value in restructuring the industry.

8) The operational logic of the secondary market has completely changed. BTC stands out alone, buoyed by off-exchange ETF funds, while ETH, SOL, and BSC are fiercely competing at the ecological level. However, no matter how they compete, the market unanimously believes that there is no comprehensive bull market for altcoins. The choice of locomotive determines the outcomes; once you choose incorrectly, the results can be quite embarrassing, especially if you unfortunately align with layer 2.

9) The on-chain world has become the hope for many in the crypto space, but compared to the difficulty of making money in the CEX secondary market, the pure speed-focused PVP environment on-chain poses significant challenges for most audiences. After the chaotic era, the on-chain world must achieve a comprehensive restructuring across the entire chain, including asset issuance, community cohesion, CEX integration, and technical application implementation. Clearly, a chain story without asset issuance barriers and continuous technological innovation cannot truly change the Crypto world.